Last night's lineup was so effective, JS decided to run it back tonight.
2026 wRC+ vs LHP
Lukes: 25
Straw: 67
Gimenez: 71
Clement: 83
I guess the alternatives aren't much better since Atkins wanted an entire bench of LHB, but they could have at least squeezed McAdoo into the lineup tonight.
I've never seen a manager do so many dumb things and have them almost always work out as much as JS in 2025. IKF pinch hitting for Barger late in a game? Probably a walk off or game tying single, or something. It was cute when it worked, but not as fun when regression hits. I'd definitely be good with a new manager, but if it's just someone who does what the FO wants, then probably won't make a huge difference.
The Jays needing contact in order to score and Straw striking out was the Baseball Gods telling JS that it's not 2025 anymore. The wild pitch was nice though.
Shockingly, Straw had a 105 wRC+ in August (83 PA), which is higher than everyone on the team during that stretch aside from Kirk, Springer, and Bateman.
I guess JS actually is riding the hot hand.
If you assume the Jays are terrified of playing Sanchez in LF, meaning Straw is now an everyday player (barf), then the non-catching bench looks like this:
Keys (LHB)
Smith (LHB)
Sanchez (LHB)
McAdoo (RHB)
It's probably a long shot that Keys can handle LF (at least in 2026....maybe in time he will) and Max losing his mind at Sanchez probably has made JS apprehensive to start him there. They really need a RHB who can hit LHP on the bench. Even if Straw was put back on the bench, he's actually worse against LHP than he is against RHP, so that wouldn't help either.
Straw starting in LF tonight (a dude who can't hit for a CF much less a corner OF) shouldn't be happening for a team that wants to contend even in a weak WC race. I guess this is more of an indictment on what they feel about Jesus Sanchez in LF.
For 2027, Jazz will be 29 while Suzuki (and Arozarena and Lowe) will be 32. Just by age alone you probably lean towards Jazz. The issue is he has a lot of Stroman-like qualities in terms of personality, which I personally don’t care about (half the 2015 team were *******s and we loved them) but this FO probably takes it seriously.
I mentioned Marte earlier. It seems like he’s writing a ticket out of Arizona (home fans booed him last night and he wore a hat talking about burning bridges post game). A buy low there would be ideal compared to the FA alternatives but unlike Jazz who is just arrogant, Marte seems like more of a head case type, so that possibly crosses him off the Jays list as well.
No chance the Jays sign Chisholm. Brandon Lowe is probably more realistic, but he K's a ton, and the Jays don't like that. Maybe the D-backs will be fed up with Marte and trade him.
Jays are behind the Orioles so the Jays passed on him. Robert over Daz Cameron would have been a big upgrade, but they obviously didn't feel it was worth his remaining salary plus buyout.
Lukes and Clement are both perfect in utility/bench roles. With JS managing they’d still get a ton of PA’s but upgrading 2B/LF and having bench players who could provide league average-ish offense and versatile defense would be great. Not sure the Jays do that, though. Clement in particular has started the last two seasons, and JS loves him. Hard to see him in a bench role as long as he’s on the team, but who knows.
They’d have to pay Robert’s remaining salary plus his buyout (unless they pick up his option, which they won’t). Would be a pricey September pick up, but no question it would be an improvement over Cameron. Robert has historically done very well against lefties so a platoon with him and Sanchez/Lukes would make a lot of sense. Just pricey for basically just one month. I don’t think they have to worry about chemistry issues. This isn’t 2025.
If he kept Rogers in and it failed, I don’t think anyone would have second guessed it. Rogers is legitimately good and doesn’t need to be replaced due to a LHB coming up.
JS is the master of unnecessary pitching changes. I was baffled too at taking Rogers out. Maybe they are determined to have Fluharty have 90 appearances by the end of the season.
Either way, great win.
Wells is the closest comp. If I recall, the story was that Ricciardi was ready to move Wells that winter (Rios was already a built in CF replacement) but Godfrey/Rogers didn't want to lose Wells, so the extension happened. There's a lesson in there somewhere about history and those who don't learn from it.
Yeah there's no chance Atkins and Shapiro wanted Vlad at that contract length and price, much less the full NTC, no deferred money to help with the CBT calculations, etc. It was the least team friendly contract that I can remember seeing. I'm sure there were others like this but no where near 14 years in length. Vlad's contract might be the worst sports contract ever when you factor just how long it is. Atkins can be criticized for a lot of things but he's smarter than this. In a world where Vlad isn't extended, the Jays probably have Pete Alonso at 1B right now and the fans would have moved on.
Rogers made this deal because he didn't want fans to revolt and attendance to drop. The irony is that's probably going to happen next season anyway, in year 2 of his contract, with Vlad's performance being the biggest reason for it.
There's something sad about Ed Rogers bending over for Vlad by giving him $500M purely because he was afraid of the fan reaction if Vlad left, only for Vlad to get booed out of the stadium a little over a year later for having one of the most disappointing seasons in Jays history (given expectations). Almost like you shouldn't let optics dictate baseball decisions, or something.
2017 was over 3 million as well if I recall. Completely cratered in 2018-19. I don’t think 2027 attendance (whenever the season begins) will fall off as much as 2018 did, but the 2025 victory lap is clearly over.
If the Jays are going to slap hit their way to a post season berth then they need one of those runs. The difference in the WC3 race right now is entirely Cleveland going on a prolonged winning streak. I guess if you want to be optimistic then maybe you can think CLE is peaking too soon, and maybe the Jays can get one of those 5-6-7 game win streaks to gain some ground, but the rotation being an injured mess combined with the offense collectively hitting like Raimel Tapia doesn't bode well.