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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    I think there's logic to wanting to put Clement on the trade block (turns 31 next season, defense and sprint speed has fallen off, average hitter, value is probably at its peak), but there's literally no chance of it happening. Like, zero percent chance.
  2. glory
    I might be in the minority, but I always preferred this format of the Derby. You could at least see and enjoy most of the home runs rather than the cameras not being able to pick up most of them in time in the previous format.
  3. glory
    I actually have Netflix and don’t have cable, so this works out for me, but huge misstep not to have this on over the air. They made a deal with NBC for Sunday Night Baseball. Should have just thrown in the HR Derby as well.
  4. glory
    Bad offensively and middle of the pack at best in pitching and defense. I’m not really sure what, if anything, is going to cause a turnaround other than the rotation suddenly putting it all together and carrying the team ala 2023. I guess that’s still very possible but as painful as it would be to give up on 2026 after what 2025 did to the franchise, sometimes you have to call a spade a spade. It’s not a good team by any objective measure. Only the ineptitude of the AL is saving them from a more clear path to selling. It sucks because I don’t think anything they get back for rentals is going to dramatically impact the team or farm system unless they start trading more controllable talent. Team is clearly better off getting hot and going on a run but I just don’t see it as is.
  5. glory
    Trey YeSanchez. I don’t recall if Aaron had starts this bad when it comes to command but feels like he probably did.
  6. glory
    Bieber picking up that player option was such a bad omen. We didn't realize it at the time. Maybe it was just hoping he was a big vibes guy. I guess there was a reason.
  7. glory
    If Bieber can't do well against the Padres lineup then he has serious issues.
  8. glory
    Lopez has the 3rd highest WAR in MLB behind PCA and Witt. Going from a 69 wRC+ at age 24 in AAA to one of the best players in baseball 3 years later is crazy.
  9. glory
    I feel like it would take a lot for them to not be buyers. Coming off 2025 they will want to keep that momentum going and sneak into a playoff spot. Also, we have 10 years of data on what Ross Atkins does in trade deadlines when selling. He's not selling a single player that isn't an impending FA. The only time he does that is when he has a gun to his head (Osuna, to some degree Stroman due to his attitude), or another team wants to do us a favor (the Pirates with IKF). Otherwise i can't think of a trade Atkins has made where he traded a controllable piece at the deadline as a seller. So either trade the impending FAs for the next batch of Loperfido's, Pinango's, and McAdoo's, or try to sneak into a WC spot in an American League that is prime Jennifer Lopez levels of ass. The latter probably has more upside for the franchise. Maybe they get something decent for Gausman, but no one is trading top 50-100 prospects for mid-30 rentals.
  10. glory
    Miguel Cabrera from age 34-40 had five negative WAR seasons (-2.1 WAR and 93 wRC+ over that span), and Miggy was a much better player than Vlad on a consistent basis. Impossible to predict the way Vlad ages (probably won't be well), but only way this contract made any sense was if 1) the front end of it was great, and 2) the Jays were competitive at the same time. Neither happening in Year 1 is a nightmare scenario.
  11. glory
    I'm almost positive that we will hear "Vlad played through X injury all season" whenever his season is done (either end of the year or if they put him on the IL before then). I don't think that will even make a difference at this point. This is year 1 of 14. It's going to feel like 100 years by the end of it. It's just a matter of how many negative WAR seasons he will have by the time he hits enough singles to get to 3000 hits.
  12. glory
    Donaldson isn’t going to want to be paid based on future projections when he was either an MVP candidate or the actual MVP over the previous 5 years. I’m not saying that’s right or wrong, just that it was a reasonable emotion for him to feel. I think most of us would have felt that way in his position. With that said, Atkins (realizing the team wasn’t a contender) not wanting to extend an older player that he didn’t think would be good by the last couple of years of the contract was also reasonable. The issue I had is that if Donaldson made it clear that he was done with the org once the extension talks halted, and the Jays clearly had no intention of qualifying him after the season, then holding on to him for 2018 was a directionless decision.
  13. glory
    A GM saying "I'm offering you 3 years and let me show you why our projections think you'll stink in Year 4 and 5" would probably rub any player the wrong way. Doesn't mean Ross was wrong (he was right, in hindsight), but I don't think it was unreasonable for JD to tell Ross to kick rocks at that point. I think the bigger issue is Ross knowing JD was ready to leave once he realized the team didn't want to extend him, and the Jays stubbornly holding on to him anyway. That whole 2017-19 period was botched in so many ways. It's actually remarkable the team was good by 2021. Atkins definitely improved on the job, but man was it brutal in 2017-19 just waiting for Vlad and Bo to hopefully save the day.
  14. glory
    Whichever team sucks less will win this series.
  15. glory
  16. glory
    If the Jays are going to stink this season then I'd rather they just collapse rather than hang around the fringes of WC3. This team should absolutely not be buyers as constructed. They are bad offensively and middle of the pack at best on the pitching side. There is nothing to suggest this is a good team that is underachieving, but if they stay close enough, even while below .500, then they'll want to go for it given how successful 2025 was. Just sell, maybe you get lucky and go on a run anyway given how weak the AL is, and go from there. Gausman and Varsho seem like the only ones who'd have significant value. Bieber has missed a large part of the season. If the CBA wasn't expiring I'd say just hold on to him and qualify him after the season if he looked better in the 2nd half, but the CBA stuff makes that a bit dicey. Springer is a 10/5 guy so he has a full NTC. Not like he'd have a big market anyway, probably just the Astros since that's the type of move Dana Brown would definitely make. Either way, sell and play the younger guys down the stretch. Buying, unless it's someone who is controllable, would be a mistake.
  17. glory
    Jays offense ranks 30th in MLB in xwOBA, 21st in wRC+, 25th in ISO, 29th in BB%, 28th in hard hit %, and 27th in barrel%. So it’s a team that doesn’t draw walks, hit for power, or barrel the baseball. Say what you want about the pitching, but the offense is awful. Even 2023 wasn’t this bad.
  18. glory
    Vlad also has a full NTC and like 60% of his contract is a "signing bonus" that is paid every summer in a lump sum until his contract is over. It's literally the worst and most player friendly contract in sports. AJ Preller, who has handed out some of the worst contracts in the sport, wouldn't trade for Vlad. That's how bad that contract is.
  19. glory
    If they are still under .500 three weeks from now then they should be sellers, or at least dipping their feet in both (ex. trading impending FAs but still looking out for controllable help). I don’t expect them to operate like that but trading any prospect with a modicum of upside for a rental to increase chances at the 3rd WC spot would be foolish.
  20. glory
    Varsho is a FA, Lukes is old, Barger might end up missing a huge chunk of 2026, and Santander will have missed most of the last two seasons. There will definitely be room in the OF next season. If Keys can play LF even competently, then it's probably worth exploring rather than another Horwitz experiment putting a 1B at 2B.
  21. glory
    Vlad inching closer to an OPS starting with 6. Wonderful.
  22. glory
    From February 2020: Montoyo joked earlier in camp that he’ll have Guerrero doing pushups any time he hits a ground ball in batting practice, and the topic is clearly on the hitter’s mind, too. “I’ve been working with Guillermo a lot on the launch angle,” Guerrero said. “Last year, there were a lot of balls that hit at the wall. This year, hopefully, I’ll put them in the air so they go out.” This has been an issue with him for over 6 years. It is what it is at this point. Some years he will be elite, others he will be average, and we have no idea what is coming year to year until he physically declines. If that decline has already begun, then god help us.
  23. glory
  24. glory
    Vlad’s contract will only be palatable if the first half of it is elite level offense. The minute it was signed you figured the last half (seven f’n years!) will just be sub replacement level slop until he gets to 3000 hits and the fans can celebrate him. If the first half of the contract is not a bunch of 5-6 WAR seasons with a lot of team success then yeah, worst contract in MLB history (just due to the length of it more than anything else) is probably a safe bet.
  25. glory
    I don't know about worst in MLB history, but it will be in the top 3-5 worst when all is said and done. At least Soto is a generational talent so whatever decline he faces in the end will come after many (many) years of being elite. With Vlad he simply does not have the track record of consistent elite performance, and that was in his physical prime. I'm pretty sure if the Vlad extension never happened, the Jays would have been able to replace him rather easily (not with ceiling but certainly with floor), and that's the sad part in all of this. Oh well. Ed wanted what he wanted.
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