glory

The Jays starters in 2025 and their MLB rank: WAR: 23rd ERA: 20th xERA: 23rd FIP: 24th HR/9: 28th This rotation had no business being a 'slightly bigger IKF lead off 3B' away from winning a World Series. Their biggest weakness was clearly the rotation, and between Bieber opting in, and the signings of Cease and Ponce (plus an expected full season out of Yesavage), there's a good reason to believe that what they've spent the most money on this winter will make the biggest impact on the 2026 team compared to the 2025 team. They tried to make the big splash for the offense and it didn't work (Tucker). Beyond that there's not much they could have done to add multiple wins to the offense unless they find a way to trade for Marte now (not likely).

Bellinger must have jumped head first into that Yankee offer as soon as he and Boras saw the Luis Robert trade happen.

If the Mets are out on Bellinger, then I’m not sure what Boras is waiting for. The Yankees offer is great and I can’t see another team topping it unless it’s a Tucker/Bo type of deal that’s a ridiculous AAV for fewer years.

I’m not sure most owners want a cap. A cap system and more centralized revenue will increase franchise values, but the current system involves significant revenue sharing, no salary floor, and the players likely getting significantly less than 50% of league revenue, all while league revenue increases every year. A cap system would likely reduce revenue sharing (or eliminate it completely), have a floor, and will lead to players getting more of the pie. Not sure the juice is worth the squeeze for the owners. Going into every negotiation saying “we want a cap and are willing to wait for one” is a good bargaining tool, and that’s what I think this is. If anything they had more reason to miss games during the last lockout coming off two seasons impacted by Covid and they still caved in the end to avoid it. With that said what the Dodgers are doing is not good for the sport. We know Skubal is signing there next year and probably Henderson when he’s a FA, and Skenes, etc. My guess is the next CBA (assuming they don’t do something stupid like miss a season for a cap) will tax the Dodgers an insane amount. Like 150% or 200% for going over a certain threshold. Will that deter them? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s more likely than missing games for a cap, IMO.

That's my sense. Both sides were ready to move on. I'm sure Bo would have come back if the Jays offered the most, but they traded for Gimenez a year ago likely for this reason. The Okamoto signing just confirmed it.

The Jays gave IKF 40 (!) playoff plate appearances (whopping 7 wRC+) instead of putting DS at 2B or even DS in LF, Barger at 3B, and Clement at 2B. I think they view him as a platoon guy who only faces RHP in specific matchups (or moments sheer desperation). I wouldn't consider him a 2B option on this team with the current structure, either because they don't like his defense there, don't trust his bat, or both. Someone like Jimenez makes sense in a bench role. He's historically hit LHP well/better in the minors, and can cover 2B/SS. If the existing bench is Lukes/DS/Straw, then not much middle infield coverage there, especially in case of injury or in case of Clement/Gimenez badly struggling.

Only thing that will prevent Clement from getting 650 PA in 2026 is injury. He's playing everyday, for better or worse, and I expect him to be around the same as he was in 2024-25 (~95 wRC+). We just have to accept that the middle infield as presently constructed is going to be below average offensively, but great defensively and on the bases. I know the Jays don't steal much, but if Gimenez is healthy, then he really needs to run a lot more when he's on base. I'm assuming his lower body injuries prevented more of the running game, but with his bat, he really needs to maximize base running as well as defense.

If they don't think he can be a starting caliber CF for even a couple of years then it would be a hard pass.

Bellinger being able to play CF is really the only reason it might make sense. The Jays will need a CF after 2026. They have no one in the minors who looks like a realistic 2027 CF option, and there isn’t a CF FA option that looks appealing either. Not sure I’d want Belli for the contract that he is looking for as there is a lot of risk in his profile and performance. His skill set is exactly what the Jays like, though, and if a CF does emerge then moving Bellinger to LF/RF is always an option. You’d have to hope that he’s a 120 wRC+ or better bat for a few years.

I'd definitely take the under on 110-115 for Clement. If he reaches 100, then I think we're all pretty happy. A part of me is still doubting that the Jays (who value defense more than any team in the league) is going to put Santander in the OF everyday, so I'm legit stumped on how they proceed from here. If they add another bat, my guess is it will be a LHB that will be able to slot between Springer and Vlad in the lineup. Only realistic options there are Bellinger or Kwan. I haven't heard the Jays linked to Bellinger at all (whose market appears to be the Yankees or tumbleweeds), and Atkins and Boras are BFF's now, so maybe that's the plan. Or they could just stand pat and hope for a Taters bounce back. I guess that's the fun (and agony) of a baseball off season. It's a waiting game now.

A trade for a controllable OF is probably a reasonable next move if one is coming on the position player side. They can figure out the roster crunch later. Stay away from Bellinger given the price tag he wants. I joked about it at last year's deadline and heading into the off-season, but Kwan's offensive profile is what Atkins dreams about at night, so I'm going to assume they'll at least pursue that, especially given the history of trading with the Guardians. Not sure who else is out there that makes sense. Maybe Atkins has a surprise up his sleeve.

I'm a little relieved Tucker went elsewhere if that offer is true. I know 10 years was offered to lessen the luxury tax/AAV burden, but for a RF/LF who has already seen diminished defensive ability, that wasn't going to age well. Definitely would have helped for 2026-27 though. The only FA move that I'd be in favor of at this point is Framber, assuming the Jays feel comfortable with his personality. He's probably the only FA left with a good chance of being a 4+ WAR player next season. Beyond that it's likely the trade route.

Adding an outfielder involves moving parts, which is fine when the upgrade is someone like Tucker, but if it’s someone like Kwan or a player of that ilk, then it might make more sense to just stick with what you have and maybe add to the bench (ex. a good utility IF). Of course if they have given up on Santander (they have more info on him than fans do) then that’s a different story. If they believe he’s a bounce back candidate then you’re probably not adding a 4-5 WAR OF that will justify moving him in a trade or to the bench. With that said, a Ross Atkins team playing Santander in the OF all season seems very out of character, so I could see a trade for an OF. How they’d make it fit is the question.

Tucker has negative aura. That has to factor into the WAR calculations somehow.

The MLBPA trying to get fan support during the lockout this time around is going to be interesting to watch because I think it's gotten to the point where the fans are going to side with the owners. Not because they are simping for them, but because the inequity has gotten so large that fans won't give a s*** which side benefits from a players vs owners battle and focus on what is the best outcome for them personally. The NFL is the undisputed king of the major US sports, with arguably the least favorable CBA for the players, and I've never seen/heard one fan complain about that. They just love football and the system in place. It's going to get to that point with MLB. Whether they institute a cap is a different story (probably not), but I don't think fan support for the players is going to be there this time around.

The MLBPA never cared about the non-star or younger players. They care about the top 1% being able to work in a free market. The last CBA was actually rejected by the 8 subcommittee members (Scherzer was one of them). It was the individual player reps that approved it.

From BNS: Framber has a 3.7 WAR projection and has a 60% GB rate so having Clement/Gimenez behind him would certainly help. Not sure how they'd work around 7 starters and their egos + whatever promises were made to them (ex. Ponce) but it's certainly an option.

If the Jays are running a Clement/Gimenez infield, then my fear is still waking up to a "Jays sign IKF to a minor league contract" notification. You'll have people who don't know better saying "there's no such thing as a bad minor league contract", completely oblivious to the fact that it would ultimately lead to JS twisting the roster into a pretzel trying to figure out how to get IKF 400 big league PA next season. The Jays better be in love with Leo Jimenez or spend actual money on a good backup infielder. I don't care which one, just pick one of those options. As far as the pivot from Tucker, and speaking of the Cardinals, I wonder if Nootbaar would be of any interest. Two more years of control and statcast data looks intriguing despite him playing hurt last year.

I might be alone on this, but I like the NBA style contracts that MLB players are signing for (higher AAV, fewer years). You can make exceptions here and there, but I'd much rather have <5 years of a player in his latter prime than 10+ where you're eating an unknown number of dead years. Bo getting $126M over 3 years is so much better than $200M over 7, too. Even if he doesn't opt out and goes Tim Anderson over the next 3 years, he still made out better than had he taken the Phillies offer.

It's Nightengale, so take it for what it is.

That home run off Ohtani should be considered one of the greatest HR's in franchise history, but most Jays fans will probably refuse to even watch highlights of that game for a long time. Bichette definitely lived up to the prospect hype. The Vlad/Bo era had 4 playoff appearances, one 90+ win missed playoff season, and ended literally one inch away from a title. Went by so fast too.

Why am I suddenly terrified that Boss Atkins and his best friend Scott Boras might be working on something now? I want no part of Bellinger on the type of contract that he wants.

Bo to the Mets for 3/126. Did not see that coming.

I've mentioned this before, I think a bigger issue is the lack of IF depth. The middle infield is Clement/Gimenez, two players who are likely to be below average offensively with limited power. The only player currently on the bench who can play an infield position is Davis Schneider, and the Jays preferred giving 40 plate appearances to freakin' IKF in playoff/World Series games rather than put him there, so I don't think they view him as IF depth. Then there is Jimenez who is out of options and made of glass, and the minor league depth involves Kasevich and nothing else unless I'm forgetting someone. They probably need to add an infielder somewhere, unless they are bullish on Jimenez and view him as the primary utility option (may not be a bad idea since he projects reasonably well for that role but highly volatile from a performance standpoint). So while the Jays do need an OF with some team control, they probably need an infielder as well.

Does Tucker have one elite skill? Like he has good power, not great. Defense used to be good, now it’s declined (possibly due to injury). Good baserunner but not fast. Good exit velocity, not great. He’s like a really good “jack of all trades, master of none” player that is now one of the highest paid players in league history. It’s actually baffling. I don’t want to undersell him, a 4-5 WAR player is really good, but he’s still a corner OF at age 29. This feels like someone with Steve Cohen’s wealth going to an auction and outbidding everyone by overpaying for a car he doesn’t need. It just feels off.