glory
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Everything posted by glory
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From Jeff Passan's latest article: "The Blue Jays, coming off their first World Series berth in more than three decades, have no plans to slow down. They are considered the favorite by other executives to land Tucker." Passan is the most reputable MLB guy, so this has a bit more credence than if the usual BS artists (Trollosi, Heyman, etc) said it, but still, take it for what it is.
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Yeah I think they will get someone who can realistically be the closer next season, either aiming super high (Diaz, Williams, Suarez) or Iglesias/Helsley/etc types. From May 1 to the end of the regular season, Hoffman had a -1.1 WAR with a 5.95 FIP, 4.44 BB/9, and the 2nd worst HR/FB rate in baseball for relievers (behind known stud Ryan Rolison) in 53 IP. Rojas has a career 79 wRC+ against RHP, and in 2025 it was 67 with 1 HR. I don't disagree that Hoff might be better in 2026, but I don't think the Jays use him in the closer spot again. Maybe that's me wishing more than anything else. The next time I see that man come into a game in the 9th inning wearing a Jays uniform the score better be 15-1.
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One thing that needs to be factored in is how much money the Jays actually have to spend this winter. We are assuming Rogers is willing to go near the Cohen Tax due to how 2025 turned out, but that's not a certainty. If they can only afford one gigantic FA splash, then I think the rotation is the much bigger need. The 2027 rotation as of now is Yesavage and Berrios. The Jays will be losing Springer and Varsho after 2026, and Gausman and Bieber in the rotation. It doesn't appear like they have anything internally that can replace those guys at the moment (things can obviously change depending how 2026 goes for the farm system). Overpaying a SP (Cease, Imai) and then trading for Donovan ($5.4M Arb 2 projection, 3.0 fWAR 2026 projection from Steamer) might be the type of off season that makes more sense.
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I could end up being wrong but I think Tucker is going to get a lot less than people think, especially if the Dodgers are lukewarm for him. How many big spending teams will be seriously in on him? I think the Yankees are focusing more on Bellinger, and the Dodgers don't need him (especially since their best prospects are OF’s). Phillies, Giants and Jays might be the realistic market. I can’t think of any other big spenders that would overpay for him, and Phillies might focus more on Schwarber. Of course all it takes is one desperate team. Curious to see how it shakes out. Since it’s the MLB off season, we will have to wait another 2 months before we see the results.
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Clement is a ~95 wRC+ player who can play great defense at 2B/SS/3B, and he's also 30 years old. I think he has more value to the Jays given their the competitive window than he does in a trade.
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If this is the move they make 2 months from now then it is what it is, but this soon when the market hasn’t been established yet would be disappointing. Aim higher. Settle when you have no choice.
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Ross Atkins Opened the Door to the Blue Jays Adding a Closer
glory replied to Bob Ritchie's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Yeah Diaz going back to the Mets probably makes the most sense. Losing a pick and spending huge money on a closer is probably not something most teams will have the appetite for. The Jays have the combination of need, money, and possibly desperation given how bad their closer situation was in 2025 (cost them a title), so maybe it's something they'd be willing to do, but realistically if they are in on Tucker/Bo and the higher end SP's, then not sure they'd want to allocate that much to a closer. But if you're looking at a realistic Diaz market, the Jays are likely there. I don't think there will be many teams in that market (realistically). -
If the Jays are trading Varsho (don't think they will), then they'd have to have someone a lot better than Straw in CF. If Lukes could play a passable CF then that would make more sense, or maybe try for a follow up trade for Buxton (he has a NTC so probably not likely). If Varsho is a Boras guy then they might be better off just using him in 2026, hoping for a big year, and then qualifying him after the season. Who knows what the new CBA will be after that.
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Cease has been durable and the Jays obviously value that and are willing to pay more for that. What he commands on the market will be interesting. I think I’d prefer Imai for the age/upside factor but an impact Japanese player signing with the Jays is not something I’d want to bank on. Cease is more of a sure thing, and might be easier to convince to sign.
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Toronto Blue Jays Targeting High-Leverage Relievers
glory replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
According to Rosenthal, the Jays met with Edwin Diaz's agent during the GM meetings. It was categorized as not a "major development" and simply expressing interest in a good player. For some reason, I think this has a real chance of happening. The Jays got to the World Series and were 2 outs away from winning it with arguably the worst closer in the league (at least from May-onwards). They have the combination of need, money, and desperation that I don't think any other team in the league has as far as the closer position. They know they can't go back to Hoffman, and no one else internally can fill that spot. Whether they'd want to lose a pick and give up ~$100M for a closer is the question. Typically I'd say no, but after how Game 7 ended, who knows. Also depends on how much money they have to spend. -
I mean, if the Jays somehow signed both Bo and Tucker, and wanted to trade Santander to free up a roster spot, then I could see the logic behind it, but trading him just to dump him seems a little hasty to me. As mentioned his luxury tax hit is minimal, and there's very real 2 WAR/30 HR bounce back potential next season. He is a one trick pony but that one trick when done at the level he's done it in the past is very valuable.
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If Varsho is a Boras client, then he's heading to free agency, so this whole discussion is pointless. This is the first I've heard of him being a Boras guy though.
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I don’t know, they started him in playoff/World Series games, and there was a point where they used him as a pinch hitter (against a LHP who he sucks against) in place of Barger who they had batting cleanup that night. Love is the scariest emotion because sometimes logic doesn’t compute when the love is strong. I hope we have seen the end of IKF in Toronto but I’m terrified that we haven’t. Dude sounded like he’d play in Toronto for free. I want to live in a world where the Pirates never release IKF in September and he just finishes the year out with them. I’m not going to guess or assume what would have happened in that scenario, all I know is it’s a world I would have preferred living in.
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Honestly one of my fears this off season is the Jays bringing IKF back to be a utility IF in 2026. I hope and pray that they love Leo Jimenez and they just plug him into that spot. Two months of IKF this past Sept/Oct felt like a lifetime. I can't do a full season.
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Toronto Blue Jays Targeting High-Leverage Relievers
glory replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
The Jays need to get this one right if getting a closer is on their wish list. As 2025 showed, John Schneider will live or die with whoever the 9th inning guy is regardless of actual results. They need someone with a good shot at being lights out, which isn't easy given how volatile relievers are. If the Jays are spending FU money this winter (remains to be seen), then wouldn't shock me if they went with Diaz, or maybe more likely Suarez. My guess is Williams will be a Dodgers "buy low". -
Yeah I'd be a little nervous on a longer term deal. If it's like 2026 and 3 more years after that, then fine, but if it's a 5-6 year deal, then it would definitely be risky given his profile and the fact that defense in a player's 30's is very likely to fall off. A current minor leaguer developing into a 2027 CF option would be great, but not sure that exists in the current system.
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Boras represents Imai, Cease, and Suarez. I think there’s a good chance the Jays end up with one of them.
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Imai will be posted on November 19 according to Boras. So the latest he can sign is 45 days later (January 3rd, I guess). Boras likes to wait out the market but hopefully this signing happens relatively quickly, otherwise it will be a month and a half of "no pitcher is signing until Imai does".
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Yeah I’d trade top prospects for Tatis without hesitating. I just don’t see a fit as the Padres would almost certainly prefer big league players coming back and the Jays don’t really have any expendable ones that the Padres would want. Barger wouldn’t be enough as a centerpiece. Byron Buxton is potentially available as well now (he’s apparently willing to waive his NTC if the Twins keep tanking). Probably not the best fit for the Jays since he’d likely need to DH a bit to keep him healthy but an impact bat with a $15M CBT hit and the ability to play CF is very attractive.
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I'm not a big JS fan by any means, but he was robbed on this one.
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Imai + one of Tucker/Bo would be amazing. One benefit of Imai + Bo would be no loss of draft pick compensation. Although I'm not getting my hopes up on Imai or any top level Japanese player signing with the Jays until it actually happens. Bo or Tucker seems far more plausible. Hopefully Boss Atkins can work some magic with Imai. The double benefit of adding upside to the rotation and possibly creating a pipeline for more Japanese talent in the future.
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I'd choose Tucker over Bo all things being equal, but there could be a significant ($100M+) difference in what they command on the market, so that has to be figured into the equation. The team's biggest need is a high end SP. As long as signing one of Tucker/Bo doesn't prevent them from shopping in the top end of the SP market, then either one is fine. Whatever makes more sense from a money/years standpoint. Tucker would be a perfect add to the lineup, though. A LHB who draws walks, puts in the ball in play, has good power, and is a very good base runner. Ideal fit for the #2 spot in the lineup, and it would allow Barger to play 3B regularly, which is probably a better value play for the Jays. Finding an OF is a lot easier than finding a 3B, and Clement isn't someone I'd pencil in as a long-term 3B.
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Yeah I'm in the same boat. I'm conflicted on Bo because I don't think his batting profile is going to age well (high BABIP, low walk rates) and he was slower than Vlad in sprint speed prior to his injury (and he's had a bunch of lower body injuries recently). With that said, the Jays need a short-term impact bat to take advantage of this competitive cycle, and Bo might be the most realistic one they can get. I wouldn't be terribly upset if another team overpaid him and the Jays moved on to someone else, but could certainly understand bringing him back at a reasonable price point. I'd go with Imai + Bo as well. Or Imai + sign/trade for Bo's replacement, whichever one is the more reasonable path (ex. if Bo wants $250M then maybe look towards a trade or another avenue in free agency). After Bieber picked up his option, I think Imai is even more appealing since the Jays can take a bit of a risk now on upside with some certainty added to the rotation.
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Another benefit might (stressing the word "might") be that the Dodgers have so many SP's, especially on big money deals, that they may not be as involved in this one. Of course the Dodgers don't care about money, so if they wanted a 7th or 8th starter on the roster making $20-25M a year, then they could certainly afford it. If the Dodgers are not as involved, and Boras advises him to take the best deal, then the Jays certainly have a shot if they are interested/willing to overpay. My guess is they end up with one of the MLB SP FA's though (Suarez, Cease, King, etc).
