Agreed 100%. The Jays are kinda stuck here. As you said, if they keep Vlad for 2024-25 and he's the same 1-3 WAR player he's been the last two seasons, except with AAV's over $20m in both years, then it doesn't really help the Jays get to where they want to go. If they keep him and he becomes 2021 Vlad again, then you're left having to give him $300m to keep him long term, and that seems like an awful investment given how he's looked from age 20-24 (in performance and his conditioning/body/attitude). The whole point of maximizing the Vlad/Bo years was the expectation that both would be superstars during their pre-arb and early arb years. Bo has held up his end for the most part, but Vlad hasn't come close aside from one season. Now Vlad in particular is making more than the value he provides on the field, so it's no longer a competitive window based on him.
Is there a team out there that would view Vlad closer to his hype than his actual results? Maybe. I'm not sure. Maybe a team like the Marlins would do it. AJ Preller would definitely do it but he's running out of assets to trade.