glory

I'd be very (pleasantly) surprised if the Jays are still a good team in 2026, but it's going to depend on extensions to Vlad/Bo and what type of internal development can take place from now until 2026. The one saving grace for 2024-25 is that Atkins is pretty good with short term big league moves so I'm sure he'll adequately replace whoever he has to replace. The key to determining 2026-beyond is how he can incorporate young talent into the mix and what kind of young talent. It was easier to use young prospects in 2019-20 when there was no expectations. Will he put Orelvis at 3B in 2024 if he does well in AAA to end the season? That's a risk for a team with a short window. It would be nice if they could lose Chapman and Merrifield, and plug in Orelvis and Barger/Schneider without missing a beat, though that seems way too pie in the sky. If I had to bet, I'd say 2026 will resemble 2017-18 in terms of trying to squeeze more juice out of something that has no more juice to give, but 2.5 years is a long time in baseball. It took Orelvis only a month to be a prospect again so a lot can change.

Eppler has been a disaster for them. It's a toss up between him and Buck as far as who goes first, but wouldn't surprise me if both are gone soon. Last season might have been their window with this group.

The only way it can be spun rosier is if the Jays get some massive internal development and soon. If Orelvis is a top 50 prospect again, then that's a start. The way Atkins has built the team is the exact opposite of the sustainable talk that him and Shapiro were saying years ago. You don't build a sustainable winner by never extending any young talent, exclusively using expensive FA deals to fill holes, and swinging and missing on almost every draft since 2017. Atkins' one strength is building a solid MLB roster. He usually does well with trades and free agent signings (for the most part), but without the other parts of the equation, it's hard to see that strength being able to compensate for what he lacks. I think overall he's a solid GM but not one I'd miss if he were replaced. As long as it's Shapiro picking his replacement and not Ed Rogers.

The concept of developing a SP prospect is so foreign to the current Jays FO that they probably don't even remember how to do it. Not saying Francis is going to turn into anything but giving him a start against a middling Central team at home didn't seem like a terrible idea. Not sure why they went the way they did, especially since as far as I recall he was stretched out in his last minor league start. I guess just be thankful the Jays rotation hasn't had the injuries that the Yankees rotation has had.

Agreed. Charlie was an easy target but the front office clearly wanted someone to follow whatever analytics they have, so whether it’s Charlie or Schneider or someone else entirely, the way the roster is managed will be relatively the same. I’ve said before, James Click is already on the payroll. It’s not like they will need a long search. Will probably have to wait until the off season because it will be easier to make that move though.

Francis should have given them length. I’m not sure what the hell was the point of only using him for 2+ innings when he was stretched out reasonably well prior to being called up. It’s not Schneider as much as it is the front office but frustrating nonetheless. This definitely has 2021 vibes to it in terms of winnable games ending up costing the team a playoff spot, and I honestly wouldn’t even be mad. At least last time we could blame Buntoyo but it’s the front office pulling the strings so you kinda just have to hope the talent overcomes that.

John Schneider master class.

Man just saw the score and got excited because I thought Francis was starting this game but of course it was a bullpen game. The Jays have been so successful at developing SP from the farm system so no need to see what Francis has, I guess.

That was a great throw by Merrifield. Kirk has to catch that.

A guy who gives up a ton of contact seems like a really bad idea with the ghost runner, but not sure who is available in the pen right now.

Mitch White will help in theory since he can eat up innings out of the pen, but if the innings are similar to what he has been throwing in the minors then that won’t help at all. If Bass were Romano, then the Jays would have found a way to keep him regardless of the media s*** show but Bass being a fungible middle reliever wasn’t worth the headache, especially for a corporate owned team.

If Kirk was running at full speed and the rest of the league was briskly walking, I’m not sure Kirk beats anyone in a foot race. Unless that ball hits the gap I’m not sending Kirk but yes it did end up being close.

Sending the fattest/slowest dude in the league in that situation was beyond stupid.

I figured with Alvarez batting 3rd that Schneider/the Jays analytics weren't going to keep Bassitt in the game. Very annoying about modern baseball.

I think Manfred already said that once they add 2 expansion teams that it will be 4 divisions of 4 in each league, so they won’t go back to 2 divisions even with an even number of teams. Hopefully in that scenario if MLB suggests that the Jays go into a division with Central teams in it that Shapiro won’t pull a Beeston and demand to be in the Yankees/Red Sox/Orioles division instead. Otherwise I agree. The Central teams making it while quality teams have to miss out (possibly the Jays) would be a joke.

Agreed. The Rangers aren't as good as their RD says they are, but still look like a WC team assuming the Astros eventually take the lead in the West. They have legit star vetrin players (Semien, Seager) along with a solid group of position players around them, and they took the Jays approach of overpaying FA SP's to avoid having to develop them and those SPs are all doing well. I mean, the Rangers pretty much have to fall off for the Jays WC chances to improve, but I wouldn't say it is a certainty that they regress enough to not be a factor. You don't fluke into the RD they have, easier schedule or not.

All these games that Manoah is blowing are going to add up, and the AL has improved since last season. I realize the SP depth is ass cheeks in the minors but at this point I’m not sure how someone like Bowden Francis could be any worse.

If this isn’t Manoah’s last big league start for a while then the Jays deserve what they get.

To Atkins’ credit he doesn’t make many bad trades, but man did he whiff on Mitch White. Trading an actual prospect for a swing man with average stuff who became a bulk reliever less than 12 months later is just awful. Hopefully from now on these swing man types are developed internally.

Since May 1: 111 PA, .258/.378/.699 (1.077 OPS), 176 wRC+, 15.3 BB%, 20.7 K%, .207 BABIP, .441 ISO, 12 HR He's walking more, striking out a lot less, and still hitting for ridiculous power. His April was horrendous so that can't be discounted, but if he's found something since then that explains his May+, then I'd be tempted to promote him and see if that continues in AAA. The Jays desperately need prospects to start filling big league holes. Orelvis coming back from the dead would be a huge development, but too early to get excited.

Yeah a month ago I would have laughed if someone said he'd be the starting 3B in 2024. Now I'm kinda expecting it if he gets promoted to AAA soon and looks ok.

I'm positive that Vlad is going to have an absolutely monster 2025 season to make this topic more of a discussion, but as of now it's kind of one sided. Bichette's on pace for another 4.5-5.5 WAR season, his third in a row, and his expected numbers don't show that to be a mirage. Not sure I'd trust someone with a 5 BB% over a 10-12 year deal, but that's going to be the cost of doing business with either of these two players. I trust Vlad's offensive profile a lot more over a long term but that also comes with bad base running, a less important defensive position, and weight issues.

Yeah, if you told me before the season that he would have a 12.4 BB%, 23.0 K% and .314 ISO in 161 plate appearances, I would have thought he would be a top 50 prospect by the mid season rankings. He's doing a lot of important things well but it's still a pretty lousy season overall. He looks like the definition of a boom or bust, with bust being far more likely, but there's enough intriguing things in there to not want to cut bait too soon. Curious to see if Atkins holds on to him or trades him at the deadline, though I can't imagine his value would be that high.

They had to trade their #4/5 hitter from last season (Teoscar), a useful power hitting LHB who can hit in the middle of a lineup (Tellez), a former 1st round pick (Groshans), and spend what will end up being $16m over 3 years (Jimi Garcia) to set up the rest of their pen. Meanwhile teams like the Rays and O’s are picking up scrap heap guys and doing a better job year to year. Atkins and his regime are really bad at player development, especially on the pitching side.