glory

Davidi also wrote something a day or two ago comparing the Jays to the 2013 Red Sox, which seemed like a way to brace the fans for a ‘spread the risk’ off season, but within that article seemed to imply that the Jays would consider Bellinger too big of a risk given his profile. Whether that’s him speculating or based on some intel he’s received is anyone’s guess.

The bulk of the good players on this team, if not all of them, are free agents either after 2025 (Vlad, Bo, Romano, Bassitt, Swanson, Mayza, Green) or 2026 (Gausman, Kirk, Varsho, Springer, maybe Berrios if he opts out). So yes there is a window, but flexibility can lead to having a more fluid view of the roster long term, and there are ways to expand the window (extensions, trades, reallocating funds). Right now the Jays are in a good spot where they don't have any albatross contracts and can easily pivot in direction depending on the circumstances. Where the Jays really have to start stepping up is internal player development. I'm not sure if Orelvis, Tiedemann, Roden, Schneider, Horowitz, Barger, Jimenez, etc (just naming prospects in AA/AAA that are close) are good enough to extend the window beyond 2025, but you kinda have to give them a shot (whichever ones aren't traded beforehand) to see if a couple can stick. Schneider last season was found money. I'm firmly in the "find the best 1-2 year deals you can get" category. Try to make the 2024-25 teams as good as possible but don't make a regrettable long term decision for the sake of trying to maximize a perceived window.

It didn’t take long for Morosi to start peddling made up s*** again for engagement. I guess he felt enough time had passed since Ohtani gate. But yeah, Morosi aside, MAT would be a great 4th OF option.

I'd much rather give Soto 12/600 than Bellinger 8/200, and I would hope Atkins sees it the same way.

Yamamoto apparently signing with the Dodgers for over $300m. No Passan tweet yet but everyone else seems to be running with it. Either way, if it’s true, then maybe the off season can finally start.

I wouldn't be ok with it, but that's the contract that I'm expecting him to sign (8/200). If Boras has $200m in his brain then he's not settling for less than that.

This is from ESPN regarding the "pitcher warming up" rule:

It's not about sustaining success. After Kawhi left there was no where to go but down. It was about direction and asset management. They have been bad at both since 2020. They got Barnes right which they deserve a lot of credit for (Suggs was definitely the consensus there at the time) but what else was there? Off the top of my head (in no particular order): - Traded Lowry for Dragic/Precious, basically salary filler and a role player. - They then traded Dragic and a 1st round pick (20th overall) to get Thad Young and a 2nd round pick (33rd overall), dropping 13 picks in order to get a washed Thad and whatever salary relief they got from it. - Traded Norm (who has been one of the better 3P shooters in the league) for Gary Trent who has actually regressed every year since he joined the team despite being in his early 20's. - Their last few non-Barnes 1st round picks have been Flynn who doesn't look like an NBA player, and Gradey Dick who has looked like dogshit so far (still too early to judge though). - Traded a top 6 protected pick for Jakob Poeltl in order to reach the play-in game (which they lost), now they are about to be in the lottery but won't have a pick unless it goes into the top 5. - Lost Fred for nothing. Look where the team is now. Basically the definition of a treadmill team. Not bad enough to get a top pick but not good enough to make the playoffs (or play in with the way they are looking). The next few months will be critical because Siakam and OG are impending FA's. If they lose 1 or both for nothing like they did with VanVleet then it will set them back big time. If they traded 1 or both and get returns that better align with Barnes' skillset and prime years, then they might be able to salvage things a bit, but I don't think what I said before was unreasonable. They have been pretty bad overall since 2020, and I don't think you'll find too many people that disagree.

The Raptors have been poorly run since the championship (aside from drafting Barnes), but 2014-20 they were one of the best run orgs in the league. Depends what timeline you want to focus on.

I don't think the Jays can afford to keep the costs down and try again next winter mainly due to their window. Over the next 5 years, the next 2 seasons are likely the highest they'll be on the win curve. They really can't afford to punt 2024. That's why even though it's a bad idea, I can at least understand the interest in Bellinger. The problem is they are trying for a home run in a market where (with no Ohtani/Soto), the best they can do is a double. It's a s***** spot to be in. Unfortunately I think it means they kinda have to bring Chapman back. After him the 3B options in free agency/trade are simply not there unless they pull off a surprise trade for a player no one here thinks is available. They could sign someone like Teoscar and get a 2-3 WAR in LF so I don't think missing out on Bellinger (who is probably closer to that level, especially if he's not playing CF) would be as costly. That's why as I said before the best route to take, which will by far be the less sexy route, is to do what they did last season. Move with the assumption that the Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Gausman, etc, core is good enough on its own and supplement that core with short term vets. Live or die with Vlad/Bo.

If Joey Gallo is the starting LF on this team in 2024, even in a platoon role, then something would have gone terribly wrong. Or Atkins lost his mind.

He had to have a month like roided up Barry Bonds in order to get playing time last season, and the moment he started to regress, they couldn't wait to bench him. I think he should be the starting 2B until he loses that spot, but I'm curious on how exactly they view him and the 2B position in general. As far as Hoskins, there was talk (which might have been just speculation) that he wanted a 1+1 deal where he could opt out in year 2, which Boras guys have done recently with pillow contracts. If it's a straight 1 year deal, then he's a great fit. If it's a situation where you have to give a player opt out to a DH coming off a torn ACL, then I might look elsewhere. Hoskins, Garver, and JDM are all great fits. The Jays need power in the lineup badly.

With the Padres looking to shed payroll, and Machado/Bogaerts/Cronenworth being untradeable, I wonder what it would cost to get Kim. Plus defender at 2B/SS/3B and better than league average hitter the past two seasons. Impending FA. They need pitching, which the Jays don't have much of in terms of expendable ones, so not sure it's the best fit. I'm going to revise my off season wishlist to Garver (DH), Teoscar (LF), Kim (3B/trade), Taylor (4th OF). Adds much needed power, maintains infield defense, and adds a capable 4th OF who can maintain OF defense in the later innings.

It doesn't appear the Jays view Orelvis or Barger as 3B options anymore. Orelvis probably needs more seasoning anyway, but if Barger is a competent defensive 3B then he should definitely be someone they consider in that role. Seems like they may see him as more of a OF now, though.

Yeah the more I look at this market, the more sense Teoscar makes. He has something the Jays need (power) and was a 133 wRC+ player from 2020-22 so there's a possible buy low element involved. Between the power, upside, and positive PR that bringing back a popular player would bring, it seems like a no brainer compared to the alternatives. Definitely a risky profile though with the K's and the chase/whiff rates. If it's between him and a 7-8 year deal for Bellinger, then I hope logic prevails.

I'd have no issues going with a Biggio/Espinal platoon at 3B if my alternatives are giving Chapman a Springer contract or anything else currently on the FA market. Either Biggio/Espinal works, or more likely they hold you over until July when you can try to make a trade deadline pickup to fix 3B. Not sure the FO would go for that option, though. And yeah, they definitely need to put more resources into LF/DH in that scenario to make up for the uncertainty at 3B.

Yeah I’m legit drawing a blank as far as how the Jays are going to fill LF and 3B (if not Chapman). With DH it seems like they have a pretty good list of names who could provide value (JDM, Garver, Brantley, Hoskins, Turner, etc). With LF/3B, the options are much more scarce.

Another year of Varsho in LF would be a waste. Let him be a CF where his defensive value would be the highest, and then hope he bounces back to a league average bat. Kiermaier will probably want to start somewhere and it shouldn’t be here. A LF with some power would be ideal, although if the Jays are looking to maintain strong defense all around then their options are limited. Market is cluttered with no defense bats in the OF.

Between overpaying for Chapman or Bellinger, I’d definitely favor Chapman (though “neither” would be better). If the Jays don’t view Orelvis as a 3B long term then they have an organizational hole there. Between Roden, Barger, maybe Schneider, etc, you could at least envision some OF options on the horizon. Something like Chapman, Hernandez, Brantley, and Taylor is probably reasonably realistic.

My preference would be the Jays go internal for 3B as well, especially with how bad the market is, but I just don’t see them doing it. None of Barger, Orelvis, and Damiano have a MLB plate appearance and those three are likely the most realistic 3B options internally. It’s also likely that the Jays don’t view Orelvis and Barger as 3B anymore so that complicates the issue. Biggio at 3B short term is likely the move to make as long as he can handle the position but not sure they do that in a season they want to contend with a possibly shortening window. Chapman on a Springer contract would be awful but I just don’t see the realistic alternative. The Giants signing Chapman and then trading JD Davis would probably be a good outcome for the Jays so we could hope for that.

I don’t know about a 3-4 year deal but he’d be a decent pickup in this market. His numbers were awful at Safeco but he was closer to pre-2023 Teoscar on the road. Of course Rogers Centre dimensions destroyed the Jays offense in 2023 as well so who knows. I just don’t see any decent FA alternatives and Bellinger on a 7 year deal seems like a really bad idea.

In hindsight, trading junk for Eugenio Suarez would have been the smart move, but understandable that they didn’t want to do it when they thought they had a chance with Ohtani.

The Central is perpetually mid, so any team that builds a half way decent squad has a chance to win it. Good for the Royals for trying. They also only have 4 (?) more years of control on Witt so they can’t waste any years.

The only issue with Brantley is 2024 will be his age 37 season and he's already been slowed down by injuries the past two seasons, but if I had to guess, I think he's who the Jays end up with. They've liked him in the past, and Atkins seems to like picking up players coming off down years, so he fits that criteria as well. The age issue also becomes less relevant when the DH alternatives are also around that age or older (JDM, Turner, Belt, etc).

Who has the better projections in 2024-25 between Bellinger and Yelich? If it’s Yelich then he makes more sense to acquire (if it costs nothing and he waives his NTC) since he’d only have 3 years remaining after that, whereas Bellinger would likely have 5-6. A Cody signing only makes sense if you think he’s going to be good for a majority of it, or at least more than half. A big component to all of this is how Atkins goes about the off season. Does he want to maximize the next 2 years or does he want to build something more sustainable? Ohtani was a special case, and Soto would have been a rental so not sure we can decipher anything based on that. Bellinger would probably fit the “sustainable” model but that’s only if they are confident his performance post 2025 will still be there. I’m not even sure his 2024 performance will be there which is why he’s so risky.