glory

Cashman's last few years of futility is catching up to him big time. Just the last two years of trades alone (Donaldson, Gallo, Montas, Montgomery/Bader) have been horrendous, and then factor in signing LeMahieu to a long ass contract, Hicks (who was released with years left on his deal), taking ten years of Stanton's contract (still has 4 years left and he was sub replacement level last season), signing Rodon to a 6 year deal rather than giving him a pillow contract the year before, etc. It's just a horribly constructed roster with a bloated payroll. This was really their year with Soto an impending FA (he'll either leave or get $500m+ further depleting their financial flexibility....Hal is not George). They can't afford to lose Cole or Judge, much less both, for any extended period of time.

Yeah, optioning Espinal and keeping Clement seems like the most logical way to go, and since DS is the only one of the bench options who they seem to be playing in the OF, I feel like demoting him isn't happening. Maybe they keep Espinal as well and let Vogelbach go while Votto gets reps in AAA, but there's really no need for Clement and Espinal on the same roster.

JD Davis wasn’t claimed so he was released.

I don’t understand why they think Judge playing CF is a good idea to begin with. They have Grisham who is a 2 WAR player just with defense alone so that seems like a no brainer to put him in CF and work around Stanton’s existence (maybe platoon him with Verdugo).

Agreed. It says more about the Jays 3B options than it does about Clement. Hopefully IKF has a 90-100 wRC+ season in him or two.

Clement might actually be the best 3B option currently on the team at this rate so I hope they have no intention of keeping him off the 26 man roster.

Given how cheap teams have been this winter, and how badly free agents have been screwed by it, I'm not sure Davis at $7m is going to be claimed, but who knows. He would certainly help the Jays who need offense and he comes with positional versatility which they seem to love as well.

With the way Biggio was used at the end of last season, I think we have to get used to him being the starting 2B against RHP (when everyone is healthy).

My thoughts exactly. If Votto was signed to be the everyday DH then I’d have an issue with it, but to replace Vogelbach on the end of the bench? Even if Vogelbach at this point is better against RHP, the difference between the two in that role is so marginal that from a fan/entertainment/optics standpoint this is a no brainer decision.

Vogelbach only makes sense if they plan to use Turner in the field a few times a week, which I doubt. A fat DH-only platoon bat on the bench who exists to pinch hit for IKF seems like a waste otherwise. Ideally they sign Grossman and punt Espinal into the sun. Bench of Biggio/Schneider, Kirk/Jansen, Clement, and Grossman would be solid.

The Jays don't have a 4th OF, and Schneider can play LF, which none of Clement/Espinal/Vogelbach/Escobar will likely be asked to do, so I don't think DS will be demoted. Even if he's not the starting 2B, he'll likely still be the primary LF against LHP + whatever starts he gets against RHP. It's going to come down to Espinal vs Clement most likely. Keeping both makes no sense. The issue is that players better than Espinal are signing for $1m in free agency, so he might be a negative asset at his salary at this point. I doubt there's a trade there unless they take back an equal (or close) salary.

I remember a few years ago Shapiro saying that he hates player options. Atkins did give one to Berrios so I guess maybe he's softened a bit on that stance, but otherwise I'd be surprised if the Jays gave a contract to a player with the structure that Bellinger and Chapman got.

From May 1-onwards: Home: 81 wRC+, 222 PA, .156 ISO Road: 87 wRC+, 245 PA, .136 ISO Yeah, not sure if Chappy has the right mindset if he's blaming the RC for his bad numbers. Maybe it's injury, maybe it's decline, maybe it's a little of both. A bounce back wouldn't shock me if it was health related. Doesn't appear that the park was the reason behind it though.

The Jays collectively were a lot worse offensively at home. Team wRC+ of 103 at home (17th in MLB) and 111 on the road (5th in MLB). Kinda curious now how the 2023 team would have done without the stadium renovations, but Chapman specifically (along with Springer) were pulling the ball a lot less than they did the previous year, so that likely contributed to their drop in power/production. As far as IKF, if the Jays can squeeze a 2+ WAR out of him without having give him like 650 PA to get it, then that would be a decent outcome. I don't share the same optimism that others seem to with him, but would love to be wrong about that.

If the Jays got word from Chapman that he had no interest in returning, then yes, pivoting early made sense, and we should go easier on Atkins for that. Pivoting to IKF for 2/15 is what most of the complaints are based on, though.

Yeah I think this is the part that is most depressing. It's not that Atkins misjudged the market (he did), but he prioritized 1 WAR talent enough to overpay for it in free agency when the market had not fully developed yet. KK and IKF would have still been unsigned in Jan/Feb, and even if they weren't, who cares? Just find the best 1 WAR talent you can find with what's left, or use internal options that might project to be that caliber (or better) anyway. Atkins to his credit has not always acted like this, especially recently, where he's been willing to (over)pay for higher caliber players (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman, Bassitt, etc) or make prudent buy low pick ups (Ray, Belt, KK last year, etc). The upside from the players he's signed this off season is kinda minimal at best aside from Green, who if he bounces back to pre injury form is a really good RP. If Atkins literally did nothing this winter and just picked up the scraps available in Feb/March, it would be better than what he did just by virtue of being cheaper and not much different from a value standpoint. Just plug Horowitz or Vogelbach at DH, sign Grossman to hit against LHP, sign Urshela for peanuts, use Roden or Barger or DS in the OF, German as SP depth, etc.

I don’t like the IKF signing but I actually think it’s more justifiable than the KK signing. At least IKF is a great defensive player at a position where the Jays have no one competent anywhere in the org (based on how they moved Orelvis and Barger elsewhere), and he could easily shift to a utility role with no ego issues if a better option becomes available. Not to mention the market for 3B was ass. KK is a different story. Would have been fine if the Jays didn’t have a CF but just a poor use of assets there.

You could be right, this off season has almost been a carbon copy of the 2016-17 winter, right down to misjudging the market by signing flawed players early. They knew the 2015-16 window was closing but wanted to keep the train moving for as long as they could without handcuffing their future flexibility. However I’m not sure if that was the same logic used here or whether they just did what they felt was the best they could do based on a bad free agent market and what turned out to be a non existent trade market. The difference between signing Ohtani and doing what they actually did is night and day. Shapiro’s contract is up after next season I believe. I would think him and Atkins are joined at the hip at this point, and there’s no reason to believe Shapiro’s job is in danger unless he himself wants to leave. Atkins has not operated like a man who is worried about job security, which makes this off season even more confusing.

That's possible, but that doesn't really excuse the off season. It just makes moving on from Chapman more sensible. The Jays had the right plan (aim high and then go for short term vets when that failed) but the execution was about as bad as possible, even more so now that the market cratered.

Yeah, I just don’t see why he was so in a hurry to sign those two, plus Turner. Yes it’s not ideal to head into spring training with holes in the roster but when the alternative is overpaying for 1-2 WAR talent (almost entirely because of defense), then just wait it out. Worst case you miss out and have to put Schneider in LF, or Roden, or Barger, or whoever, but Chapman at 3B and one of those guys in LF is likely better than what the Jays have at the moment. I’d have more respect for Atkins if he just played the prospects at this point and lived with the consequences. Just use KK and IFK as expensive bench depth. Won’t happen though.

The Jays are paying KK, IKF, Turner, and Rodriguez more than Chapman and Soler in 2024. That's crazy. And there's a plethora of vetrin OF options signing for peanuts now that wouldn't have forced the great defensive CF you traded for to play LF again. I really hope we look back on this off season positively, but holy s***, this is bad.

Yeah this is a massive L for Atkins. Misjudged the market about as bad as any GM in the league. Chapman at $18m AAV when they'll be paying the same to KK and IKF combined is horrendous.

I’d be shocked if it’s not Vogelbach. Atkins loves depth and he knows he can stash Horowitz in Buffalo. I just hope Clement wins out over Espinal somehow.

What take are you referring to? If it's about Kiermaier, then the only thing I've said is that after signing he said that he was surprised at the lack of interest in him throughout free agency, as he was expecting more teams to be in on him. I don't recall reading anything about how many teams were actually interested in him.