glory

Yeah the only change I'd make is have the WC round back to a single elimination game again, and push the DS round to best of 7. This season's WC round was pretty boring, and having games on in the early afternoon on weekdays isn't the best idea anyway. Put all the WC games on prime time, winner take all, and then have the DS be a longer round.

Yeah the Dodgers are getting Ohtani. They didn’t spend for the 2023 season specifically for that reason. The Yankees have the motivation to get him but Hal isn’t George so there will be a limit on what they will offer. Either way the Jays would have to blow both those offers out the window to have a chance at him and that’s not happening. Unfortunately the FA market aside from him is weak.

I meant big move in terms of a multi year free agent, not necessarily big move as in star player (other than Ohtani there really isn’t much there). Maybe the position player version of Bassitt. Soler checks a lot of boxes for what the Jays need as long as he’s not in the outfield so I could see something like that. Previously I was expecting some faith with younger players (Schneider, Horowitz, etc) but I’m not sure they go that route anymore. My guess is Orelvis and Tiedemann are the only prospects they will look to hold on to, and we see a trade or two with some others.

I've said before, I think the next 9 months (off season and trade deadline) are going to be the Ross Atkins equivalent of 2015 AA. He knows the pressure is on with the timeline starting to shorten, and now add on the pressure of 0-6 in playoff games and an embarrassing exit in two consecutive seasons. I can't imagine he's going to head into the off season with the impression that he has years of job security. I expect at least one big signing and some prospects being moved in a trade(s).

The expanded format is going to lead to situations like this (DBacks in the NLCS with 84 wins) from time to time but I think it’s good for the game and good for the fans to have more teams in contention and in the post season somewhat regularly. It definitely devalues the regular season in terms of importance, though.

Harper got doubled up at 1st base to end Game 2, and there was a quote from a reporter saying that Arcia was mocking Harper in the clubhouse after the game. That pissed Harper off and he went ballistic in Game 3, staring at Arcia when rounding the bases during both of his home runs. So I’m guessing the Braves (and Gausman apparently) are mad that something said in the clubhouse was made public. Of course that’s what I’m assuming Gausman is talking about, and not something Jays related.

The Gausman tweet sounds like it’s about the Harper/Arcia ordeal.

Shapiro might be part of the problem, sadly. He’s great at certain things (getting Rogers to spend, mostly) but the Jays as an org needed new leadership and he didn’t feel that was necessary despite all the stuff going on. Not a good look on him, IMO. I figured they’d get rid of the hitting coaches and keep everyone else. Maybe that will end up working out positively for 2024, who knows, but still disappointing.

I doubt it. If anyone questioned Atkins about that trade, he'd just deny his involvement in it.

I think Shapiro has two years left on his contract. Depending on how much he wants to stay, I think he’d have to put his relationships aside for the betterment of not only the franchise but also his own job security. If he’s ride or die with Atkins, then I wouldn’t mind him gone too. No way he can look at what happened on the field and see the disconnect between front office and coaching/players, and not do something.

Yeah the Orioles won 100 games this season without even trying to compete in the off season or the trade deadline. Their run isn't close to being over. Of course if their ownership doesn't want to spend on pitching, and their GM doesn't want to trade prospects for pitching, then they might run into similar issues in the playoffs.

Yeah, Ohtani's contract is going to be 10-12 years to lower the AAV. If he was completely healthy and was both hitting and pitching then I think there would have been no chance for the Jays to be in the running given what the price would have been, but as a DH-only for a year and then an unknown pitching career from 2025-onwards, it likely drops his overall value. One option could be to give him the big money over a long period of time but adding a player opt out after year 2 so he could potentially go back on the market two years from now after presumably pitching for a full season in 2025. The Jays would probably have to do something like that in addition to overpaying in order to get him away from the Dodgers and others. It's a nice thought but I don't see it happening. Trading for Robert is probably more likely of a scenario, though it would be costly. As I said in another thread, the White Sox are really cheap, so if you agree to take Moncada then maybe the price drops a bit, although for cost savings they would likely prefer a team taking Benintendi, which after seeing the 2023 Jays offense would make me want to vomit more than usual.

I don't think Bichette having a 4 WAR next season would be an unreasonable expectation, but everyone else currently on the roster for 2024? I wouldn't bank on it. This entire window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, meaning 5-6+ WAR players. That simply is not the case. The best player on the team is Bo and he's closer to a 3-4 WAR level player. Clearly Vlad is no where near a superstar player, and there's just too much volatility in his expected performance to bank on him as a core player. He could be a 4+ WAR player or he could be replacement level and neither option would be all that surprising at this point. Either way, expecting anything resembling 2021 at this point would be insane, and they kinda need him to be 2021 Vlad in order to have a real chance. If Atkins is still here, then I'm expecting this off-season and possibly next trade deadline to be his AA 2015 moment. He's going to go all in whether it hurts the long term outlook of the team or not. I just don't know if a star of that caliber is available. Maybe Luis Robert, and if you absorb Moncada's contract at the same time maybe the price would drop a bit, but otherwise I can't think of any player that stands out. Maybe Soto. I guess more names will become known after the playoffs end.

I feel like this Diamondbacks run is going to be a giant middle finger to Ross Atkins. All I saw was the D-Backs scoring a run to make it 4-1 and I knew instantly it was either because of Moreno or Gurriel.

You could see that coming. A one run lead against the Braves offense is not easy to get through. Would be a gut punch to the Phillies if they lose this one.

This feels like a game Atlanta is going to win. Phillies bullpen has to come up big here.

Shapiro would be considered a hero if he fires Atkins now. I’m holding out hope that it’s still on the table. Atkins usually gives corporate BS answers so for him to be more scorched earth than usual might be a sign that he’s feeling some heat. This is the one time Rogers being obsessed with optics might be a good thing because Jays fans and even some media aren’t having Atkins and Schneider right now.

Atkins is lying, and is also a coward for letting his subordinate take the full blame for it. Charlie Montoyo did the exact same thing in 2020 and he’s not here anymore, so either that’s a crazy coincidence that two different managers thought the same way or the org might have their fingerprints on it. Atkins and Schneider both being back would be a massive letdown.

I think I'd be fine with any team except the Astros (tired of them) and D-backs (not exciting enough for me to want to watch if they go on a deep run). I'd probably root against the Orioles too but I don't feel any certain way about the 2023 configuration of that team.

Agreed 100%. The Jays are kinda stuck here. As you said, if they keep Vlad for 2024-25 and he's the same 1-3 WAR player he's been the last two seasons, except with AAV's over $20m in both years, then it doesn't really help the Jays get to where they want to go. If they keep him and he becomes 2021 Vlad again, then you're left having to give him $300m to keep him long term, and that seems like an awful investment given how he's looked from age 20-24 (in performance and his conditioning/body/attitude). The whole point of maximizing the Vlad/Bo years was the expectation that both would be superstars during their pre-arb and early arb years. Bo has held up his end for the most part, but Vlad hasn't come close aside from one season. Now Vlad in particular is making more than the value he provides on the field, so it's no longer a competitive window based on him. Is there a team out there that would view Vlad closer to his hype than his actual results? Maybe. I'm not sure. Maybe a team like the Marlins would do it. AJ Preller would definitely do it but he's running out of assets to trade.

Manoah snitching to Manfred to get Atkins fired would redeem his 2023 pitching performance, IMO.

Springer and Chapman both seeing like a 20% decline in pull % this season from last season is a bit puzzling to me. They are vets so they'd have no reason to switch up their approaches now, especially Springer who was coming off 140 and 133 wRC+ seasons in 2021 and 2022. Although with Springer it was likely at least partly age related decline. That's a contract the Jays would be smart to try to get out of if they can, though they probably can't. Hopefully Arte Moreno wants to replace Ohtani with as many big names as possible.

Forget Scherzer, they wouldn’t have taken the ball from Chris Bassitt. I’d be pretty annoyed if I was Berrios.

Yeah no chance a smart front office handles Berrios the way the Jays did. If 2023 Manoah was starting, then absolutely go batter to batter, but Berrios had a 3 WAR season with a track record of being that caliber of starter and looked great through 3. It was also likely demoralizing to the players, especially if they aren’t or weren’t briefed about it beforehand (maybe they were, but Merrifield’s quote didn’t seem too flattering). Atkins is the key to real change. Replacing Schneider is meaningless if Atkins is still there because the analytics will stay the same and he will just hire another “happy to be there” guy who will blindly follow what he’s told. Cut off the head.

Hard to say. There might be one or two teams willing to give up something for him that's closer to the Vlad hype rather than the Vlad reality, but who knows. Someone mentioned Vlad for Soto, I think the only GM in the sport that would do that trade is Preller, so maybe there's hope for something like that (probably not), but I don't think the Jays would get any teams top prospects. He's someone they should probably keep and hope he bounces back over the next 2 years. Bichette is far more likely to get something back in a trade.