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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    I would think the QO would make Chapman on a pillow contract unattractive to everyone other than the Jays but it depends on the team in question. The Jays were a CBT team last season so their penalties for signing a qualified FA are higher than a non-tax team (which I'm guessing the Cubs and Giants were last year though I haven't looked it up). My guess is if he signs elsewhere it will be a long(er) term deal. If he's looking for a 1 year deal (with a player option for 2025) to enter the market again next season without the QO, then the Jays are probably the most likely to take him up on that.
  2. glory
    Either sign Chapman to a 1+1 deal (that’s the type of pillow contracts Boras likes) or just sign some lefty mashing 4th OF like Grossman and take your chances with what you have. Bellinger, unless he’s also taking a pillow contract (doubtful) is just too risky.
  3. glory
    Probably prior to the 2007 season given the timeline. I vaguely remember a Wells/Kemp rumor but not sure if it was before or after Wells signed the extension. If I recall it was Paul Godfrey who wanted Wells extended, as it was before Beeston came back into the fold.
  4. glory
    Lopez had a 65 wRC+ in AAA (346 PA) last season and is out of options. I mean, being more valuable than IKF isn't a high bar, so I guess it's possible if he figures something out, but I don't think it would have been wise for the Jays to bank on that in 2024. The Jays should have stuck with their internal options over signing IKF, though. That I would agree with. Biggio, Espinal, and Clement on the big league side, and then a bunch of prospect depth in the minors. Oh well, just have to hope he has a couple of good seasons in him. Atkins has had a pretty good run with FA signings over the past few years (Ray, Springer, Semien, Phelps, Garcia, Gausman, Kikuchi, KK, Bassitt, Belt, Green). IKF does feel a lot closer to Roark/Morales than those ones, though.
  5. glory
    $7.5m AAV and two guaranteed years for IKF is gross, and even more in hindsight knowing that the price for Chapman might drop. This might end up being a Morales/Encarnacion redux where Atkins quickly signed a replacement only to see the departing FA sign for a lot less than anticipated. Either way, I don't think Atkins wants a deal that surpasses two years (otherwise I suspect Soler would have been signed), so unless Chapman is willing to sign a 1+1 deal, I don't think Atkins will be that interested. I actually think preserving 2024-25 financial flexibility is the smart move. It won't help 2024, but if you're going to spend, then spend on impact talent, not the best of a mediocre FA class. Go after Soto (unlikely) or Bregman (more likely) next season, or Tucker the year after, plus whatever SP they can sign.
  6. glory
    Yeah I think Espinal, Garcia, and Richards are all easily movable. Yimi is a good RP but there are optionable RPs already on the 40 man with upside (Pearson, Pop, Danner, etc). They should probably trade one of Richards or Garcia anyway, but if you have to trade both to add a 3 WAR 3B on a much shorter deal than expected, then you do it and hope the young pen arms can make up the difference.
  7. glory
    Yeah he wouldn’t cost the team any picks/international money, and fills a massive hole on the roster. Bellinger would cost two picks, $1m in international money, and probably a longer term for a more volatile player. I expect the Jays to end up neither one but if I had to guess, I think Chapman is more realistic. He’s not a former MVP coming off a bounce back season so Boras might be less delusional with his contract ask as well.
  8. glory
    If Jimenez is a legit above average defensive SS then I think he's a real prospect. He's already got good plate discipline at a young age and if you mix that with some power potential (combined with the defense) then you might have a decent player there. Whether he can hit enough to start on a good team is the question. With Bichette two years away from free agency, and Jimenez out of options in 2025, he's likely going to factor into their plans in one way or another (either as a big league piece or a trade piece).
  9. glory
  10. glory
    Wow I didn't realize Lopez was that bad in 2023. A 65 wRC+ in AAA where offense was up and no options in 2024. This was inevitable. Hopefully, Rodriguez pans out in whatever role he ends up in. That contract has a lot of surplus value potential if he becomes something.
  11. glory
    Yeah they were starting a broken Alek Manoah over Francis last season. Maybe there were reasons they didn’t want to stretch him out into a SP role in 2023 (injury?) but it was beyond logical to use him as Manoah’s replacement after Alek was demoted the first time. I think they view him as a bulk reliever. My guess is it’s the starting 5 followed by White (due to options he will be on the big league team unless he stinks), Rodriguez, Tiedemann, and Francis (1-2 times through the order) in that order. If Parsons is starting games in May then the entire rotation would have gotten hurt, and at that point it wouldn’t even matter. I think having an entire pen with no optionable relievers is tough. Would make sense to trade Garcia or Richards just to free up a spot for someone like Pearson, Danner, Pop, or whoever, especially if the team can actually get something useful in return.
  12. glory
    Not necessarily Soto, but impact free agents in general. Between KK, Turner, Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, and Richards, the Jays will have ~$47m coming off the books after this season, and then between guaranteed 2025 salaries and expected arbitration increases, probably around $100m coming off the books after 2025 between Vlad, Bo, IKF, Biggio, Bassitt, Romano, Green, Swanson, and Mayza. They can go after the Soto's, Tucker's, Burnes', etc, over the next two off seasons. Of course the only way for that plan to work effectively is to have some inexpensive 2-4 WAR players starting elsewhere, so prospect development over the next two seasons will be huge, especially this season.
  13. glory
    From an entertainment standpoint I thought 2022 was fine aside from the 3000 plate appearances that Raimel Tapia was given. Yes some pitchers struggled but that happens year to year. The 2023 team was torture to watch from beginning to end.
  14. glory
    Bauer made enemies in MLB (Manfred specifically) well before the scandal happened. I’m guessing that’s at least partly a factor here.
  15. glory
    The 2021 and 2022 teams were not "borderline WC teams". The 2021 team had a 99 win expected W/L and finished 4th in their own division with 91 wins. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL and were 2nd in the AL in runs (4th in MLB). The 2023 was the closest thing to a borderline WC team during this run, and they finished with 1 fewer win than the eventual World Series champions. Don't get me wrong, the 2023 team were a huge long shot to advance in the playoffs given how the offense looked, but the 2021-22 teams were legitimately good. Sometimes the playoffs are what they are.
  16. glory
    Yeah the plan made sense (go for elite talent and if that fails go for short term vets), but the execution was poor. KK is redundant with Varsho (and coming off a season he will likely not repeat), IKF's bat isn't good enough to be a starter, and Turner is 100 years old so a 'fall of a cliff' could happen at any moment. There had to be a better way to implement this strategy. The only real hope is for a prospect or two to come up mid season (or out of ST) and surprise. Not sure I'd want to bet on that, but that might be more reasonable than hoping for KK, IKF, and Turner to be difference makers.
  17. glory
    Only way this off season makes sense is if Atkins is planning to do what the Orioles did last season and just call up a bunch of prospects mid season once they start performing in AAA, and the vetrins brought in are just to maintain/raise the floor. Otherwise, yeah, this has been a very underwhelming winter.
  18. glory
    Sounds like the Jays will view Schneider in the same way they viewed Merrifield, as a 2B and defacto 4th OF. Which means against lefties we probably see the Murderers Row lineup of Schneider in LF, Espinal at 2B, and IKF at 3B. I really hope Turner can play some 3B, even if it's a modest amount.
  19. glory
    How Atkins has operated this winter is someone who has no fear for his job security. Objectively, the team has averaged 90 wins over the last 3 seasons, and made the playoffs over the last 2, finishing with over 3 million fans in 2023. It's possible fans overstate how much at risk Atkins actually is. Granted, not everyone with a possible fragile job security is going to scorch earth like AA did in 2015, so maybe Atkins is just operating business as usual despite any potential noise about his role, but somehow I doubt that. The fact that he brought in a 39 year old DH, an injury prone OF, and whatever you want to label IKF, it seems like he's leaving the door open for prospects to take over either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Whether that means trying to integrate those prospects into an already contending team or retooling post 2024 depends on how 2024 goes. It would be pretty cool if the Jays made the playoffs again with Schneider, Horowitz, Orelvis, Tiedemann, Barger, etc, playing roles. Not sure if that's something Atkins is banking on or whether he truly believes in the vetrins he's brought in.
  20. glory
    Yeah giving him 2/15 definitely feels like they value him higher than FG projections/WAR. You don’t give that contract to someone you plan to use sparingly. I think absolute best case scenario is that they signed him to start at 3B but would move him into a super utility role if a prospect beat him out, but I’m not convinced that this FO is going to trust Orelvis or Barger to handle 3B right out of the gate. IKF will hold fort down for at least a couple of months.
  21. glory
    Interesting that Law thinks Orelvis can handle 3B defensively. If he can, then that would be fantastic for the Jays who clearly have a hole there.
  22. glory
    The Jays thought highly enough of White to trade for him, and then put him back on the 40 man roster after last season where he looked awful. I think they'll give him every chance to win a spot. He was great in his last 6 AAA starts last season, and was hitting 97 on the gun (not sure if he was doing that previously), so maybe there's some hope. If there isn't then they can always get rid of him later. Reality is, Manoah is a massive question mark, Tiedemann will be on an innings limit, Yariel hasn't pitched in a year, and the team preferred starting a completely broken Manoah over Francis in 2023. There's probably a 50% chance that White is the #5 starter to start the season if he looks competent.
  23. glory
    Yeah, Burnes is a one year commitment, and they used expendable prospect depth to get him. Trade probably would have happened even if they didn't sell the team. If they sign Snell, then that's a different story.
  24. glory
    I miss Angelos.
  25. glory
    IKF at 3B is gross, and I expect Kiermaier to regress to below average offensively. Other than that, there's a lot of volatility in the lineup. Could be good, could be average, or if Vlad/Springer/Kirk/Varsho don't bounce back, then it could get ugly. I think the team is hoping for not only bounce backs/regression, but also hoping that depth can help compensate over 162. The fact that the Jays decided to go with an injury prone KK, 40 year old Turner, and backup in IKF definitely leaves the door open for prospects in the minors, both short and long term. The development of the position players projected to start in AAA (Horowitz, Orelvis, Barger, Palmegiani, Jimenez, maybe Roden) will be crucial this season.
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