glory

Stroman on a Bassitt type of contract would be solid. He's usually pretty durable and consistent from a performance standpoint. Whether the Jays should be adding another $20m AAV starter is the question.

Both IKF and Espinal project to be about 1 WAR players, and both are coming off bad replacement level seasons. I don't see how one is expendable and the other is worth $15m. Neither one should be getting the type of money/guarantee that IKF just got. There have been like 5 FA's who actually signed contracts this winter. IKF shouldn't have been this much of a priority.

Robert Murray was on a podcast recently and mentioned there were trade targets no one has talked about. He wouldn’t mention specific names when asked but did mention Arraez as being a possible surprise trade piece. Given what the Jays look for in hitters nowadays, that’s probably a realistic trade target.

Only way this makes sense is if the team plans to give the kids a chance to win the 3B job out of ST (Orelvis, Barger, Damiano), and IKF can be pushed aside if that happens. Otherwise I really don’t get it. I guess the other scenario is the Jays are going to trade an infielder and IKF takes that role but the only IF they could trade where IKF would be a suitable replacement is Espinal, and the Jays will get nothing back for him, and why would the Jays need to spend $15m to replace Espinal’s role to begin with?

Awful. Not only a completely marginal player but somehow got a 2nd guaranteed year.

Deal is official according to Robert Murray. 2/15 for IKF. Horrible.

I could stomach Rosario at 2/15 since he has a 2+ WAR projection for 2024 and was slightly above league average offensively in 2021-22, so maybe there's some upside there, but IKF would be awful. Even if he's just an Espinal replacement, I'd probably just keep Espinal who would be cheaper.

Agreed. Having an elite defensive CF with a questionable offensive projection and putting him in LF for the 2nd year in a row just seems like a waste. It's possible that the Jays did not want to commit to a multi year deal to any of the remaining FA outfielders, and KK was the only one who was willing to sign a one year deal. But again, let's see what the other moves are. A power hitting DH is essential now.

I want absolutely no part of Matt Chapman on a long term deal, but the thought of IKF at 3B might change my mind.

I highly doubt KK will be the 4th OF. I think he will be the primary CF any time he’s on the field, which means a lot of LF time for Varsho. I just don’t like trading for an elite defensive CF and then for the 2nd year in a row most likely using him in LF. Just seems like a waste. Unfortunately the FA market stinks for outfielders and the Jays likely wanted someone on fewer years so again I’m fine with it from a value/direction standpoint but if Varsho isn’t in CF almost everyday then it’s not the best use of the assets on the roster.

The contract/value is fine, but Varsho should be the starting CF. Another season where he's in LF is not maximizing his value/strengths. I guess we will see what the rest of the moves are. I think the best part of this deal is that it signifies the team is going with the short term vetrin route rather than blowing their wads in a weak FA market. For that reason alone I'm probably ok with it overall, but let's add some legit power with the other moves.

Davidi also wrote something a day or two ago comparing the Jays to the 2013 Red Sox, which seemed like a way to brace the fans for a ‘spread the risk’ off season, but within that article seemed to imply that the Jays would consider Bellinger too big of a risk given his profile. Whether that’s him speculating or based on some intel he’s received is anyone’s guess.

The bulk of the good players on this team, if not all of them, are free agents either after 2025 (Vlad, Bo, Romano, Bassitt, Swanson, Mayza, Green) or 2026 (Gausman, Kirk, Varsho, Springer, maybe Berrios if he opts out). So yes there is a window, but flexibility can lead to having a more fluid view of the roster long term, and there are ways to expand the window (extensions, trades, reallocating funds). Right now the Jays are in a good spot where they don't have any albatross contracts and can easily pivot in direction depending on the circumstances. Where the Jays really have to start stepping up is internal player development. I'm not sure if Orelvis, Tiedemann, Roden, Schneider, Horowitz, Barger, Jimenez, etc (just naming prospects in AA/AAA that are close) are good enough to extend the window beyond 2025, but you kinda have to give them a shot (whichever ones aren't traded beforehand) to see if a couple can stick. Schneider last season was found money. I'm firmly in the "find the best 1-2 year deals you can get" category. Try to make the 2024-25 teams as good as possible but don't make a regrettable long term decision for the sake of trying to maximize a perceived window.

It didn’t take long for Morosi to start peddling made up s*** again for engagement. I guess he felt enough time had passed since Ohtani gate. But yeah, Morosi aside, MAT would be a great 4th OF option.

I'd much rather give Soto 12/600 than Bellinger 8/200, and I would hope Atkins sees it the same way.

Yamamoto apparently signing with the Dodgers for over $300m. No Passan tweet yet but everyone else seems to be running with it. Either way, if it’s true, then maybe the off season can finally start.

I wouldn't be ok with it, but that's the contract that I'm expecting him to sign (8/200). If Boras has $200m in his brain then he's not settling for less than that.

This is from ESPN regarding the "pitcher warming up" rule:

It's not about sustaining success. After Kawhi left there was no where to go but down. It was about direction and asset management. They have been bad at both since 2020. They got Barnes right which they deserve a lot of credit for (Suggs was definitely the consensus there at the time) but what else was there? Off the top of my head (in no particular order): - Traded Lowry for Dragic/Precious, basically salary filler and a role player. - They then traded Dragic and a 1st round pick (20th overall) to get Thad Young and a 2nd round pick (33rd overall), dropping 13 picks in order to get a washed Thad and whatever salary relief they got from it. - Traded Norm (who has been one of the better 3P shooters in the league) for Gary Trent who has actually regressed every year since he joined the team despite being in his early 20's. - Their last few non-Barnes 1st round picks have been Flynn who doesn't look like an NBA player, and Gradey Dick who has looked like dogshit so far (still too early to judge though). - Traded a top 6 protected pick for Jakob Poeltl in order to reach the play-in game (which they lost), now they are about to be in the lottery but won't have a pick unless it goes into the top 5. - Lost Fred for nothing. Look where the team is now. Basically the definition of a treadmill team. Not bad enough to get a top pick but not good enough to make the playoffs (or play in with the way they are looking). The next few months will be critical because Siakam and OG are impending FA's. If they lose 1 or both for nothing like they did with VanVleet then it will set them back big time. If they traded 1 or both and get returns that better align with Barnes' skillset and prime years, then they might be able to salvage things a bit, but I don't think what I said before was unreasonable. They have been pretty bad overall since 2020, and I don't think you'll find too many people that disagree.

The Raptors have been poorly run since the championship (aside from drafting Barnes), but 2014-20 they were one of the best run orgs in the league. Depends what timeline you want to focus on.

I don't think the Jays can afford to keep the costs down and try again next winter mainly due to their window. Over the next 5 years, the next 2 seasons are likely the highest they'll be on the win curve. They really can't afford to punt 2024. That's why even though it's a bad idea, I can at least understand the interest in Bellinger. The problem is they are trying for a home run in a market where (with no Ohtani/Soto), the best they can do is a double. It's a s***** spot to be in. Unfortunately I think it means they kinda have to bring Chapman back. After him the 3B options in free agency/trade are simply not there unless they pull off a surprise trade for a player no one here thinks is available. They could sign someone like Teoscar and get a 2-3 WAR in LF so I don't think missing out on Bellinger (who is probably closer to that level, especially if he's not playing CF) would be as costly. That's why as I said before the best route to take, which will by far be the less sexy route, is to do what they did last season. Move with the assumption that the Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Gausman, etc, core is good enough on its own and supplement that core with short term vets. Live or die with Vlad/Bo.

If Joey Gallo is the starting LF on this team in 2024, even in a platoon role, then something would have gone terribly wrong. Or Atkins lost his mind.

He had to have a month like roided up Barry Bonds in order to get playing time last season, and the moment he started to regress, they couldn't wait to bench him. I think he should be the starting 2B until he loses that spot, but I'm curious on how exactly they view him and the 2B position in general. As far as Hoskins, there was talk (which might have been just speculation) that he wanted a 1+1 deal where he could opt out in year 2, which Boras guys have done recently with pillow contracts. If it's a straight 1 year deal, then he's a great fit. If it's a situation where you have to give a player opt out to a DH coming off a torn ACL, then I might look elsewhere. Hoskins, Garver, and JDM are all great fits. The Jays need power in the lineup badly.

With the Padres looking to shed payroll, and Machado/Bogaerts/Cronenworth being untradeable, I wonder what it would cost to get Kim. Plus defender at 2B/SS/3B and better than league average hitter the past two seasons. Impending FA. They need pitching, which the Jays don't have much of in terms of expendable ones, so not sure it's the best fit. I'm going to revise my off season wishlist to Garver (DH), Teoscar (LF), Kim (3B/trade), Taylor (4th OF). Adds much needed power, maintains infield defense, and adds a capable 4th OF who can maintain OF defense in the later innings.

It doesn't appear the Jays view Orelvis or Barger as 3B options anymore. Orelvis probably needs more seasoning anyway, but if Barger is a competent defensive 3B then he should definitely be someone they consider in that role. Seems like they may see him as more of a OF now, though.