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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    The only drawback to signing Chapman would be the CBT implications as I’m sure it would take them to the next tier, which would be heavier tax penalties. I mean, they gave IKf $15m when similarly valued players are signing for a mil now. They gave KK $10.5m, and KK in an interview post signing said he was shocked at the lack of interest in him. Using the CBT or payroll as an excuse would be pretty lame. If you can get a potential 3 win improvement right now on a 1 year deal or 1+1, then they’d be foolish not to do it. I can’t believe we’ve reached a point where I’m hoping for a Chapman reunion but Atkins left us no choice given the alternatives.
  2. glory
    If Chapman has to settle for a pillow contract then I think there's a good chance he comes back to the Jays assuming they are willing to give it to him. The Jays would get heavily penalized if they signed a qualified FA (2nd/5th highest picks, $1m in intl money), but that doesn't apply with bringing Chapman back, and they are staring at the reality of IKF/Escobar/Espinal as their 3B options. The need is there. I don't think any other CBT paying teams are linked to Chapman, but they would still have to wrestle with the idea of losing their 2nd highest pick plus international money for signing him. If he has to take a 1+1 type of deal, then the Jays do make the most sense.
  3. glory
    9 hits, 7 singles, 0 home runs. Blue Jays baseball is back. At least they seem to be pulling the singles rather than shooting them the other way. Baby steps. Seriously though, the Jays need Vlad to be 2021 Vlad in about the worst way. Schneider at 2B should be an improvement power-wise, and hopefully Springer rebounds a bit (they seemed to acknowledge he wasn't pulling the ball in 2023 as much as he should have so maybe there's hope). This is why I was hoping for a Jorge Soler signing. They need more power badly.
  4. glory
    Yeah, only downside would have been one year of control but Tiedemann is so risky that it would probably still be worth it. If there was a player more controllable at a position of need available then it would be a deal worth exploring. The Jays suck at developing pitching but I’ve always liked the “young position players/old SPs” model, which the Jays have essentially done the last few years. Anyway this is probably a non issue as it’s unrelated to the arm but he’s already going to be on a strict innings restriction so he can’t really afford to miss any time.
  5. glory
    It seemed like the entire 2023 lineup tried to hit singles the other way all season (or at least it felt that way). Hopefully there are more pulled baseballs hit in the air in 2024.
  6. glory
    If IKF's defense at 3B hasn't slipped, then I don't think a 2 WAR is out of the question assuming he plays there regularly and nearly exclusively. That's by far his best defensive position and he's really good there. I think a 3 WAR is pushing it, unless his offense goes up to something close to league average, which I wouldn't bet on. I don't think having an 85 wRC+ 3B with a 2 WAR is that appealing, though. They must think there's more to his bat. With that said, transcribing his post signing media interview, this is what IKF said about free agency: "It was very surprising. I wasn’t really expecting as many teams to call. I was kind of overwhelmed. It made me feel really good. I guess that was the biggest surprise for me. I wasn’t expecting as many teams of interest as I got“. Atkins already missed out on one two way player this winter. Once that happened, he wasn't going to miss out on another one dammit.
  7. glory
    Urshela is a better comp to IKF than Anderson/Rosario. Yeah, Ross f***ed up.
  8. glory
    IKF made more sense for the Jays given that he’s a really good defensive 3B, and can cover SS if necessary. He’s also someone that can transition into a utility role if a better option presents itself. The Jays clearly value defense so that was likely their mindset. Rosario is more of a 2B/OF and I think Anderson hasn’t played anywhere but SS (where his defense has regressed). I recall Robert Murray saying there was legitimate/surprising demand in IKF this winter, and IKF himself said he was surprised at how much interest there was in him. Maybe the industry values him differently than what his numbers suggest. Or maybe this is just me trying to rationalize.
  9. glory
    I'm not an IKF fan by any means, but for the Jays, it probably makes more sense to sign IKF as his best defensive position is the one they directly needed a replacement for (3B) and both project to be below average offensively so I don't know if Rosario's slightly better bat would have been worth the likely downgrade defensively at 3B. With that said, 1) I would have preferred signing neither, and 2) the Rays cheat code will probably have Rosario with a 3+ WAR season + well above average bat in 2024.
  10. glory
    Agreed. MLB made like $11b last season. A system like the NBA where there is an even revenue split and a salary floor/cap would actually help the vast majority of players in MLB and only hurt the top 1%. Not sure why that’s such a non starter for the MLBPA. A free market is great for the elite but hurts practically everyone else depending on how owners are feeling in a particular off season. I get they want the Ohtani’s of the world to maximize their value without restrictions but owners are using the current CBT as a cap anyway so it’s not helping the majority of the players they represent.
  11. glory
    Schneider had 8 bad games after hitting like Barry Bonds for 1.5 months, and the Jays couldn't wait to bench him for Biggio. I wouldn't be too confident that DS will start everyday at 2B. It's possible, and he should given the projections, but I'm going to wait and see what they do. No scenario would really surprise me.
  12. glory
    I’m not a huge fan of Horowitz but I think him making the team in that “start against righties a couple days a week + pinch hit for IKF” role would be better received. The only way this winter makes any sense is if the Jays plan to use their young players in critical spots. If it’s just going to be a revolving door of 0-1 WAR vetrins hoping one of them sticks, then it’s not going to be a fun experience. I don’t think anyone is knocking signing vets to minor league deals. It’s the fact that the Jays are likely going to use those vets at some point that is the aggravating part (see Panik). Yes, Vogelbach does hit well against RHP but he’s also a DH who makes the fatties already on the roster look like they have eight packs by comparison. There is very little upside or versatility there.
  13. glory
    Vogelbach and Escobar probably have a far better chance of making this roster than Dexter Fowler did. Joe Panik was also a harmless minor league signing in 2021, except when he made the team and suddenly it wasn’t so good anymore. I don’t mind vetrin minor league signings. Every team does it, but the fear of one or both of Vogelbach/Escobar making it is real. I hope I’m wrong and both are discarded prior to opening day but assuming these are signings to just fill Buffalo’s roster is probably going to lead to disappointment.
  14. glory
    If all our fatties suddenly come to camp in shape, then that’s certainly a good start.
  15. glory
    That’s why I said as long as he’s in the org. I hope he opts out.
  16. glory
    You know damn well the Jays are going to use Escobar at some point as long as hes in the org so I’m actually rooting for a full season of IKF at 3B at this point (if they can’t bring Chapman back on a pillow contract).
  17. glory
    I would think the QO would make Chapman on a pillow contract unattractive to everyone other than the Jays but it depends on the team in question. The Jays were a CBT team last season so their penalties for signing a qualified FA are higher than a non-tax team (which I'm guessing the Cubs and Giants were last year though I haven't looked it up). My guess is if he signs elsewhere it will be a long(er) term deal. If he's looking for a 1 year deal (with a player option for 2025) to enter the market again next season without the QO, then the Jays are probably the most likely to take him up on that.
  18. glory
    Either sign Chapman to a 1+1 deal (that’s the type of pillow contracts Boras likes) or just sign some lefty mashing 4th OF like Grossman and take your chances with what you have. Bellinger, unless he’s also taking a pillow contract (doubtful) is just too risky.
  19. glory
    Probably prior to the 2007 season given the timeline. I vaguely remember a Wells/Kemp rumor but not sure if it was before or after Wells signed the extension. If I recall it was Paul Godfrey who wanted Wells extended, as it was before Beeston came back into the fold.
  20. glory
    Lopez had a 65 wRC+ in AAA (346 PA) last season and is out of options. I mean, being more valuable than IKF isn't a high bar, so I guess it's possible if he figures something out, but I don't think it would have been wise for the Jays to bank on that in 2024. The Jays should have stuck with their internal options over signing IKF, though. That I would agree with. Biggio, Espinal, and Clement on the big league side, and then a bunch of prospect depth in the minors. Oh well, just have to hope he has a couple of good seasons in him. Atkins has had a pretty good run with FA signings over the past few years (Ray, Springer, Semien, Phelps, Garcia, Gausman, Kikuchi, KK, Bassitt, Belt, Green). IKF does feel a lot closer to Roark/Morales than those ones, though.
  21. glory
    $7.5m AAV and two guaranteed years for IKF is gross, and even more in hindsight knowing that the price for Chapman might drop. This might end up being a Morales/Encarnacion redux where Atkins quickly signed a replacement only to see the departing FA sign for a lot less than anticipated. Either way, I don't think Atkins wants a deal that surpasses two years (otherwise I suspect Soler would have been signed), so unless Chapman is willing to sign a 1+1 deal, I don't think Atkins will be that interested. I actually think preserving 2024-25 financial flexibility is the smart move. It won't help 2024, but if you're going to spend, then spend on impact talent, not the best of a mediocre FA class. Go after Soto (unlikely) or Bregman (more likely) next season, or Tucker the year after, plus whatever SP they can sign.
  22. glory
    Yeah I think Espinal, Garcia, and Richards are all easily movable. Yimi is a good RP but there are optionable RPs already on the 40 man with upside (Pearson, Pop, Danner, etc). They should probably trade one of Richards or Garcia anyway, but if you have to trade both to add a 3 WAR 3B on a much shorter deal than expected, then you do it and hope the young pen arms can make up the difference.
  23. glory
    Yeah he wouldn’t cost the team any picks/international money, and fills a massive hole on the roster. Bellinger would cost two picks, $1m in international money, and probably a longer term for a more volatile player. I expect the Jays to end up neither one but if I had to guess, I think Chapman is more realistic. He’s not a former MVP coming off a bounce back season so Boras might be less delusional with his contract ask as well.
  24. glory
    If Jimenez is a legit above average defensive SS then I think he's a real prospect. He's already got good plate discipline at a young age and if you mix that with some power potential (combined with the defense) then you might have a decent player there. Whether he can hit enough to start on a good team is the question. With Bichette two years away from free agency, and Jimenez out of options in 2025, he's likely going to factor into their plans in one way or another (either as a big league piece or a trade piece).
  25. glory
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