glory

I think the player Teoscar hurt most was Soler. Everyone else was likely to get a 1 year deal anyway (JDM, Hoskins, Joc, Pham, etc). Although it's possible those players want more than 1 year and that's the hold up. I agree, just wait out the market. Someone is going to settle for less. It won't be a Boras client, so JDM/Hoskins are probably out, but Soler/Joc is a strong possibility.

Bichette doesn’t want one so he’s out. Vlad wants one but may or may not be worth giving one to, it really depends on the years/term. Jansen I think should have been done a year ago. Kirk and Manoah I would avoid for obvious reasons. Biggio is a clear no. Teoscar you could have argued between 2019-21 was a candidate. Yeah, not a Braves situation by any means in terms of talent, so it’s likely not a bad thing overall. But the main point stands, with no extensions to young players and a bottom half of the league farm system, I’m not really sure what the direction is.

It’s wild that in 8 years on the job there hasn’t been one extension given to a homegrown or developed talent. I think the only ones were given to Grichuk and Berrios, both acquired via trade when they were in their arb years close to free agency. That strategy would be somewhat understandable if they were churning out prospects at a high level to fill any vacancies internally but the farm system is lagging behind as well. It is hard to see the direction here.

Jays and Jansen have settled at $5.2m according to Robert Murray.

Admittedly I skimmed it, but yeah I disagree with that part completely. Varsho in LF is not an optimal use of existing assets. Varsho had the worst offensive season of his pro career and was still a 2 WAR player playing mostly in LF. Put him in CF with anything close to a league average bat, and he's a significant asset. KK is too similar/redundant. They should have one or the other, not both. If they add a more offensive LF and KK is used as a 4th OF, then it becomes a much better move.

I'm not sure what half of that meant, but do agree that signing KK when you already have Varsho, and signing IKF period (presumably to start a large chunk of games at 3B) is not the best use of resources.

Soler's statcast/expected numbers from 2023 were all really good, but kinda hard to ignore 2021-22 when he was basically replacement level with a league average bat. If you believe his 2023 numbers are sustainable then he'd be fine as a DH option, but there's massive risk there because the floor probably isn't very high. My guess is the Jays end up with Joc as he has the same statcast redness without the long term investment, although he'll have to be platooned.

If the Jays are content with running IKF at 3B, then I think they really need to add two bats and push Kiermaier to more of a 4th OF role, which will likely benefit his health/body and still give him 350-450 PA. He even said himself that there was virtually no interest in him this winter aside from the Jays despite him coming off a really good season, so it's not like he needs to play everyday for his next contract. This is what he is. Take the hit defensively and get someone like Teoscar (assuming he's willing to sign a shorter term deal) and then one of the DH options.

Michael Brantley is retiring apparently. I say apparently because the source is Morosi, so he could be signing with a big league team as I type this.

The only real way to avoid being a "window" team is to have players develop through the system that are average to above average regulars (preferably better than that) so the team doesn't have to continue to pour money into filling big league holes. Short term vets in the absence of prospects is fine but there needs to be an org wide priority to develop talent from the minors to actually use at the big league level, and not just as trade capital. It was easy to do that in 2018-2020 because there were no expectations, but obviously as a team is deeper into their competitive window it gets harder to trust prospects vs big league vets. The Jays have to show they trust their development process to develop talent internally, otherwise it will be a short window followed by a 2017-18 redux (where they want to compete but aren't anywhere near good enough) after 2025. I have no idea what to expect from Schneider, Roden, Barger, Martinez, Jimenez, Horowitz, and Palmegiani long term. Either way, those guys are either already in the bigs (Schneider) or figure to play a chunk of 2024 in AAA, so they are the closest to contributing to the big league roster. The Jays need to figure out how to turn some of those position player prospects into big league contributors. Schneider may or may not be a 2-3 WAR player moving forward, but they have to give him a real shot. My concern as I mentioned earlier is that I'm not sure the Jays have shown a willingness to do that, and there's also the possibility that those prospects aren't good enough to be given a real shot. We have to hope a few of them are. The sad thing is, Vlad/Bo are both flawed enough to where the Jays could lose both and still contend if they were a better development team. But losing both of them and not having a strong development pipeline is going to make it a lot more difficult.

The biggest issue for me, and we will see if that continues in 2024, is the team's reluctance to even play their prospects. Davis Schneider needed to hit like roided up Barry Bonds in August in order for the team to reluctantly start him consistently, and once he fell back down to earth, the team was licking their chops to bench him again. The team preferred a completely broken Alek Manoah start games for them rather than giving someone like Bowden Francis a chance. Sometimes teams luck into useful prospects but you have to play them in order to get that value. Whether you like the system or not, they are going to have to develop their own talent at some point if they want a shot at sustainable contention beyond 2025.

Four days before Moreno was traded last year, Atkins said he was comfortable heading into the season with 3 catchers. In other words, I wouldn’t take anything he said here at face value.

Vlad, Kirk, and Varsho being better is a reasonable expectation. Springer is old now so I don’t think a bounce back, while possible, is something that I’d feel comfortable counting on. Kiermaier is also likely to be closer to the 90 wRC+ player he normally is next season. Schneider is a bit of a wild card. IKF likely is what he is and it’s not good (offensively). Maybe they think they can turn some of that added exit velo into something closer to a league average bat but I’m not expecting that to happen. Yeah the existing roster plus someone like Joc has potential to be a good offense but equal potential to be average/below average. They really should have picked one of IKF/KK instead of both (if both end up starting). With that said, nothing Atkins says at these things mean anything, as even if he’s not happy with the current roster, there is no upside to say that publicly, so we’re just going to have to wait to see what he does. This has been a long off season.

Yeah I think best case they got Quickley pre breakout, but even if he doesn't, he's still a really good fit next to Barnes. I'm not a fan of RJ's game but as you said he's still really young so maybe there's some upside there, plus some added motivation possibly since (as the pre game show reminded viewers every 10 seconds) he's playing for his hometown team.

Yeah I don't think Gausman is even a candidate to be moved at this point. He's on a well below market value deal and is locked up for three more years. Plus the Jays aren't exactly a pitching factory when it comes to development so replacing him would be next to impossible. Vlad and Bo are a lot easier to replace, though Bo would be tough to replace short term depending on what they got back for him. I see those two as more "franchise altering" because they are the faces of the franchise at this point and this run was predicated on them leading the way. Moving on from one of them now would be pretty significant in that sense. I'm not sure what a 2024 version of Alomar-Carter/McGriff-Fernandez would even look like at this point. The only name that jumps out to me is Tatis, but I don't think there's a fit there as they have Xander locked up for 100 years and Vlad makes more than Tatis in 2024-25 so it doesn't help the Padres shed salary.

Orelvis being a butcher defensively is disappointing. He had a clear path to the big leagues if he was a 3B but sounds like he’s barely a 2B. Not sure what to think of his potential impact at this point. Roden and Barger being legit OF prospects would be nice. The Jays don’t develop LHH outfielders very often. The only “franchise altering trade” would have to involve Bichette or Vlad. No one else on the big league roster is moving the needle that much. I doubt we will see something like that this winter but who knows.

Pederson’s savant page looks good. I’d be fine with it.

The two spots the Jays can add the most wins via free agency, assuming they have the money left to pull it off, is SP and DH. Unfortunately this is an awful market for 3B and OF. So I think there is some merit to signing a SP this winter, especially if they can get one on a shorter term contract, which is why I think Stroman makes a lot of sense for this team. Where they will have to make a trade, or risk having to start IKF, is 3B.

Definitely feels like a bird in the hand type of scenario where they'd rather have KK and IKF than wait for something better and be left scrambling if it didn't happen. If the Jays happen to find a way to fill 3B, LF, and DH within their budget and have KK/IKF on the bench, then that would be the ideal scenario. I just don't see it happening.

Ideally both IKF and KK would be bench players, but that would mean they'd still need to add an OF, 3B, and DH while already using $18M on those two. Maybe they have more money to spend than people think but more likely at least one of them will be starting next season.

Barrett is kinda trash but Quickley is a good pickup. I can see him and Barnes meshing well together. At least Masai actually made a pro active trade. He held on to assets way too long the last few years and either got little back (Lowry) or nothing back (Fred). Now trade Siakam and give Barnes the keys.

Unless IKF is the starting 3B (god I hope not), then I think they will trade for a 3B option. There simply isn't anything on the free agent market besides Chapman who would be a costly (and likely bad) long term investment. Turning Manoah into a 3B with some control is probably the plan. Whether that is possible is another story. If the Cardinals are still on the market for SP, then Manoah+ for someone like Brendan Donovan would be a great move for the Jays, but don't know if the Cards still want pitching after all their signings or whether they'd even want to move Donovan for Manoah. I'm drawing a blank as far as who they can trade for. I doubt they'd want Machado's contract even if the Padres ate a bunch of it. The one spot where they can use free agency is clearly DH, as there are a bunch of options there (JDM, Hoskins, Soler, Turner, etc). It's the infield where it gets tricky.

The exit velocity and hard hit % increases were a result of an adjustment IKF and the Yankees made in 2023, so that at least paints a rosier picture for why the Jays coveted him, especially if they keep him in the infield (3B specifically) rather than put him in the OF.

Yeah I think this plays a part. Atkins doesn't mind overpaying in years, dollars, or both for players he thinks the org can fix. Smoak was one, Kikuchi a more recent one. I think IKF having an extra gear offensively is a huge stretch and the Jays will be grateful to get a 2 WAR combined out of him over the next two years, but I don't think Atkins makes this type of move hoping he's a seldom played depth piece. For better or worse, he's getting 400+ PA. Whether that's as a bench player or starting 3B is the question. I really hope it's not the latter.