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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Yeah the more I look at this market, the more sense Teoscar makes. He has something the Jays need (power) and was a 133 wRC+ player from 2020-22 so there's a possible buy low element involved. Between the power, upside, and positive PR that bringing back a popular player would bring, it seems like a no brainer compared to the alternatives. Definitely a risky profile though with the K's and the chase/whiff rates. If it's between him and a 7-8 year deal for Bellinger, then I hope logic prevails.
  2. glory
    I'd have no issues going with a Biggio/Espinal platoon at 3B if my alternatives are giving Chapman a Springer contract or anything else currently on the FA market. Either Biggio/Espinal works, or more likely they hold you over until July when you can try to make a trade deadline pickup to fix 3B. Not sure the FO would go for that option, though. And yeah, they definitely need to put more resources into LF/DH in that scenario to make up for the uncertainty at 3B.
  3. glory
    Yeah I’m legit drawing a blank as far as how the Jays are going to fill LF and 3B (if not Chapman). With DH it seems like they have a pretty good list of names who could provide value (JDM, Garver, Brantley, Hoskins, Turner, etc). With LF/3B, the options are much more scarce.
  4. glory
    Another year of Varsho in LF would be a waste. Let him be a CF where his defensive value would be the highest, and then hope he bounces back to a league average bat. Kiermaier will probably want to start somewhere and it shouldn’t be here. A LF with some power would be ideal, although if the Jays are looking to maintain strong defense all around then their options are limited. Market is cluttered with no defense bats in the OF.
  5. glory
    Between overpaying for Chapman or Bellinger, I’d definitely favor Chapman (though “neither” would be better). If the Jays don’t view Orelvis as a 3B long term then they have an organizational hole there. Between Roden, Barger, maybe Schneider, etc, you could at least envision some OF options on the horizon. Something like Chapman, Hernandez, Brantley, and Taylor is probably reasonably realistic.
  6. glory
    My preference would be the Jays go internal for 3B as well, especially with how bad the market is, but I just don’t see them doing it. None of Barger, Orelvis, and Damiano have a MLB plate appearance and those three are likely the most realistic 3B options internally. It’s also likely that the Jays don’t view Orelvis and Barger as 3B anymore so that complicates the issue. Biggio at 3B short term is likely the move to make as long as he can handle the position but not sure they do that in a season they want to contend with a possibly shortening window. Chapman on a Springer contract would be awful but I just don’t see the realistic alternative. The Giants signing Chapman and then trading JD Davis would probably be a good outcome for the Jays so we could hope for that.
  7. glory
    I don’t know about a 3-4 year deal but he’d be a decent pickup in this market. His numbers were awful at Safeco but he was closer to pre-2023 Teoscar on the road. Of course Rogers Centre dimensions destroyed the Jays offense in 2023 as well so who knows. I just don’t see any decent FA alternatives and Bellinger on a 7 year deal seems like a really bad idea.
  8. glory
    In hindsight, trading junk for Eugenio Suarez would have been the smart move, but understandable that they didn’t want to do it when they thought they had a chance with Ohtani.
  9. glory
    The Central is perpetually mid, so any team that builds a half way decent squad has a chance to win it. Good for the Royals for trying. They also only have 4 (?) more years of control on Witt so they can’t waste any years.
  10. glory
    The only issue with Brantley is 2024 will be his age 37 season and he's already been slowed down by injuries the past two seasons, but if I had to guess, I think he's who the Jays end up with. They've liked him in the past, and Atkins seems to like picking up players coming off down years, so he fits that criteria as well. The age issue also becomes less relevant when the DH alternatives are also around that age or older (JDM, Turner, Belt, etc).
  11. glory
    Who has the better projections in 2024-25 between Bellinger and Yelich? If it’s Yelich then he makes more sense to acquire (if it costs nothing and he waives his NTC) since he’d only have 3 years remaining after that, whereas Bellinger would likely have 5-6. A Cody signing only makes sense if you think he’s going to be good for a majority of it, or at least more than half. A big component to all of this is how Atkins goes about the off season. Does he want to maximize the next 2 years or does he want to build something more sustainable? Ohtani was a special case, and Soto would have been a rental so not sure we can decipher anything based on that. Bellinger would probably fit the “sustainable” model but that’s only if they are confident his performance post 2025 will still be there. I’m not even sure his 2024 performance will be there which is why he’s so risky.
  12. glory
    When absorbing Yelich’s contract is one of the highest upside moves they could realistically make (and it is), that’s a sign that the market is not very buyer friendly. Atkins definitely has a tough road ahead but short term big league moves has been his strength recently so let’s see what he does.
  13. glory
    Yeah I doubt the Brewers would attach Burnes with anyone they are trying to dump. I'd be fine with a Yelich/Adames package as it shouldn't cost much in terms of prospect capital and there's upside there for both players.
  14. glory
    Robert, Moncada, and Jimenez would be intriguing. Benintendi and his contract are horrendous so I'd avoid that if possible. Adding him to the deal in theory should reduce the prospect cost tremendously but 4 more expensive years of Benintendi's noodle bat and bad defense won't help the team short or long term.
  15. glory
    The same basic premise that they had last off season is probably the best one to follow, which was short term vetrins and if an opportunity for a longer term player in a position of need became available, then go the trade route. In hindsight that strategy worked pretty well in 2023 (KK, Bassitt, Belt) except the existing core (Vlad, Kirk, and Springer specifically) s*** the bed relative to expectations. Hoping for internal improvement is probably not the safest route to take, but this run was predicated on Vlad/Bo being superstars, and Vlad is still young enough to breakout, so if you can't get a difference maker like Ohtani/Soto and the rest of the field stinks, then go back to counting on Vlad/Bo. If it fails then pivot in direction next winter.
  16. glory
    Agreed. It just seems like a bad idea all across the board. With how bad the FA market is, the easiest PR friendly move is probably Teoscar at this point. He’s not any better or worse than the other options available, and still had strong statcast indicators last season. Really anything would be better than Bellinger just based on the fact that it wouldn’t cost 7/200 or whatever.
  17. glory
    They seem like a better fit for Chapman than Bellinger at this point but looks like they are still in on Bellinger based on some stuff I’m reading online. They have a lot of OFs but all of them except Haniger should be tradable so they could make it work. More teams in on Belly, the better.
  18. glory
    With the Giants signing Lee to a big contract, I doubt they'd still be in on Bellinger. That leaves the Jays and the Cubs. I can't think of any other team with the resources to get it done that would be interested in Belly at this point. Maybe the Rockies swoop in for some reason. Not sure what Chapman's market is at this point. Third base is still a need for the Giants so I could see them going after him, but beyond them and the Jays, it gets a bit blurry.
  19. glory
    The Giants have signed Jung Hoo Lee according to Heyman for 6/113 with an opt out after 4.
  20. glory
    I never thought I’d root for the Yankees or Mets to sign a top starter but I’d rather one of them gets Yamamoto (I’m assuming the Jays won’t) instead of the Dodgers. I think he ends up in LA now though.
  21. glory
    Doesn't look like MLB can do anything. This is definitely going to start a trend, especially with teams hovering around the luxury tax. Between this and the RSN troubles most teams are having, especially the smaller markets, I don't see this ending well in a few years when the CBA is up.
  22. glory
    Yeah this shouldn't be allowed.
  23. glory
    While Hoskins (at DH, not 3B) would be a fit, it sounded like Boras was going to try to do the 1+1 deal for him where he has a player opt out in year 2. Not sure I'd want to do that for a 1B coming off a torn ACL. If it's a straight 1 year deal, then that makes more sense for the team. If I had to guess, I'm expecting the Jays to finally get Michael Brantley. A few years too late, but maybe there's a dead cat bounce back there. JDM would also make sense but he seems to have more of a market.
  24. glory
    Adames and Burnes are options, though both would be rentals, and Adames would have to play 3B here, which I'm not sure is the best use for him given how great he is defensively at SS. I don't expect it to happen but trading Bichette for a bunch of pieces and then trading what shouldn't be that much for Adames would be a slick use of assets. I would imagine it would cost a lot less to extend Adames than it will to extend Bo, so there might be an opportunity there to pivot off Bo without losing much in terms of short and long term WAR/value. Probably not the best PR move to trade Bo right now, though. Beyond that not sure what could come from poaching guys with salaries on other teams. Maybe Max Kepler from Minnesota? Though his cost is pretty reasonable for 2024. I guess I just don't want to see Bellinger or Chapman signed. Anything else and I'll probably learn to live with it.
  25. glory
    Ramirez would have been a FA this winter had he not extended with the Guardians. Instead he signed a $141m extension two years ago to stay in Cleveland. Not sure he'd agree to a trade with his NTC. Dude took a 9 figure discount to stay there. My guess is they will move guys like Clase, Bieber, and Naylor before they even approach Ramirez, but obviously if there was a way to get Ramirez somehow, then don't hesitate. Take Straw's contract and anything else to lessen their financial tension. Either way I expect them to keep Ramirez, and I don't expect him to accept a trade anyway, so probably wishful thinking.
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