glory

The Jays had the same OF last season but opted to go with Nathan Lukes as the 4th OF (and proceeded to never use him). I guess Merrifield was seen as the 4th OF, and now Schneider might be used in that 2B/LF hybrid role. I think the Jays should try to get a lefty mashing 4th OF (not Grichuk), but I think a DH might just be it barring a trade.

If he signed that deal with the Jays, he would have triggered that player option by July.

It's definitely the Bally deal holding things up. Local TV revenue is huge for teams and not knowing how much of that they are going to see in 2024-beyond is going to impact how they spend. Unfortunately the top players are Boras guys, otherwise a team like the Jays might have been able to benefit like they did in 2020-21 when they signed Springer and Semien (who didn't become a Boras guy until after the 2021 season) when 90% of the teams sat out the off-season. As far as who the Jays end up with, I think it will be one FA signing (Soler or JDM). Maybe there is a trade that becomes available to them but I think it's far more likely they add a DH and roll with IKF at 3B.

I also wonder what this does to Soler's asking price. There is more supply than demand in the DH market, and now one of Soler's biggest suitors (allegedly) has moved on. My guess is that Soler was holding out for an extra guaranteed year from what was being offered to him. Not sure he has that leverage anymore, but who knows.

If the Soler market was down to the Jays and D-Backs like rumored, then this clears things up a bit.

Hoskins signs with the Brewers according to Passan. 2/34 with an opt out after year 1. So there’s finally some movement on the DH front.

Rosenthal has definitely slipped. Right now Passan is by far the best source (he’s the Woj/Shams of MLB), and I think I’d put Murray 2nd at this point from a trustworthiness standpoint. He’s not as well known and he’s not breaking the bigger signings yet but I think he will get there soon. Everyone else you just kinda take with a grain of salt. Yeah, Soler adds the type of power that this team (and org in general) needs. Even at his worst he will likely put up a .200 plus ISO. The Jays are banking on internal improvement but after settling on KK/IKF for two important starting spots, they badly need someone who can hit 30+ HR.

Murray, unlike Morosi/Heyman/etc, is reliable, so there's probably some validity to this. Rosenthal reiterated in his latest article that Joc is "thought to prefer the West Coast". I think the Soler interest is real. He's likely the best DH bat out there all things considered (age, upside), though he also comes with risk.

The team clearly isn’t strapped for cash (the IKF contract proves that) but there is going to be a limit somewhere. In a market where 90% of the free agents will still be available in February, I’d rather have $6m freed up with Garcia moved for something useful when the pen has enough depth to compensate. Ideally they don’t sign IKF and have $7.5m freed up but given the state of the 3B market, maybe that wouldn’t make much of a difference. I agree that absorbing contracts from teams involved the regional sports network bankruptcy is the best play here but there still isn’t any clarity on what the future holds there so teams aren’t doing anything yet.

Yeah if the Giants get Chapman, then Davis seems like a logical/realistic Jays target.

If Garcia is movable then they should trade him yesterday. There is more supply than demand in the current FA market due to many factors. Freeing up $6m by trading an actual expendable asset is a no brainer. Pearson, Pop, and Danner are already on the 40 man roster. The team wouldn't be scrambling for a replacement.

Yeah I think that’s a possibility once the FA SP market starts to dwindle down and teams looking for pitching are open to trades. I just think there needs to be more control on the player(s) coming back, even if that player is not established yet. The Jays don’t have expendable SP depth. This type of trade would be done entirely because of the fractured relationship, so make sure the trade makes sense short and long term. A young controllable 3B prospect who hasn’t established himself yet but has some upside combined with a #6 starter with options would be a perfectly reasonable trade return. Again that’s only if they feel the relationship is too fractured to continue. If it’s not, then holding on to Manoah and seeing if he’s fixable is probably the better move.

It appears that way. I guess another option is to use Horowitz at DH and sign Chapman if he's accepting a reduced rate, but I don't think they go that route. If Joc prefers playing on the West Coast as it was speculated in the Rosenthal article, then that really leaves Soler as the option.

Yeah, Manoah makes the league minimum for one more year and the Jays need SP depth. I personally don't think he's going to bounce back, but there's still a chance he does, and the risk involved is so minimal ($750k or whatever) that the return would have to at least be a controllable piece(s). Kim is not Soto. The question is whether Manoah and the FO's relationship is strained enough that they just want to cut bait to avoid the headache in the event that he has to start the year in AAA. At this rate if they aren't getting a controllable piece that fills a position of need in return for him, then just keep him and hope he either bounces back or gracefully accepts a AAA stint.

Donnie Baseball telling Vlad to sacrifice contact for power seems like wishful thinking, but who knows.

Yeah, this FO hasn't had much success with developing their own pitching, but over the last few years the track record with pitchers they have brought in either via signing or trade is pretty good. Whether Rodriguez turns out to be a SP, RP, or bust remains to be seen, but let's see what the Jays can do with his arsenal.

I’m expecting a Manoah trade before ST as well. This is not a guy who is going to go to AAA without kicking and screaming, and the Jays may not want the headache. What they get back is the question, likely wouldn’t be much. An equally disappointing infielder who could cover an above average 3B and still has some upside/control would probably be a decent lateral move.

Yeah the difference in his Savant page from 2021-22 to 2023 is crazy. Best case you can chalk that up to an injury or bad conditioning so maybe he can rebound, but I don't think it's certain that he does, or even comes close. On top of that, the pitch clock with runners on is going from 20 to 18 so it's going to be an even bigger test to his endurance/conditioning. Adding another starter is probably a good idea, although I guess someone like Rodriguez who can act as a swing man/multi inning reliever is also a good option since Tiedemann is likely going to be on an innings limit as well so you can piggyback (assuming Manoah doesn't rebound).

From Ken Rosenthal:

Signing Adames (for example) and trading Bo for 2-3 players that could help in other areas is probably the best way to try to keep the competitive window open beyond 2025. Although I'm not sure how much value Bo with 1 year of control left would have. I was kinda hoping they'd trade Bo this winter and then figure out a way to add an Adames or Kim in a separate trade to mitigate some of the loss at short, but that's a lot of moving parts.

The team likely wants to maintain the defense from last season as much as they can, and unfortunately that means IKF is probably going to get 500 PA between 3B and wherever else they play him. I'm trying to warm up to that signing, or look on any bright side I can, but I really don't see it. I hope he proves me wrong.

Both would have pros and cons. Soler would be playing everyday so there's no need for a platoon mate for him. On the flip side, if he's in line for a multi year deal as speculated, then he would clog up DH on a team that likely needs some fluidity there with Vlad and Springer. Joc mashes RHP and there are more RHP than LHP, so he'd have great value there, but then you need to strictly platoon him, which means adding a 2nd player since no one on the Jays currently can fill that role (assuming Schneider is starting at 2B, which he should at this point). If there's a scenario late in a game where Joc is due up and has to be pinch hit for Espinal against a LHP (and you know s*** like that will happen), then it becomes less desirable. If he's platooning with Jansen, then that's a different story, but the Jays in the past have been a bit cautious doing the two catcher lineup too often. Ultimately, I'd be fine with either one. I'd probably lean towards Soler, acknowledging that he might be the riskier player in general, but the Jays absolutely need power and Soler even at his worst is a .200 ISO guy, so he might be the better fit.

Yeah in this FA market it’s either Soler or Joc as the best DH fits, IMO. Soler can probably be league average-ish against RHP while mashing lefties so he won’t need to be platooned, while Joc would have to be, so maybe that’s a consideration here. There’s no perfect answer in the FA market but Soler is probably the best combination power + upside. The Jays badly need power in the lineup.

I think a two year deal is very likely for Vlad. Even if he has a repeat of 2023, I don’t think they’d non tender him, so might as well get cost certainty for 2025. He could have a 5.0 WAR or 0.5 WAR next season and neither scenario would be shocking. That’s the frustrating part.

Stroman signs with the Yankees. Terms seem to be 2/37 with a 3rd year option. That’s a steal for the Yankees.