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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Wow I didn't realize Lopez was that bad in 2023. A 65 wRC+ in AAA where offense was up and no options in 2024. This was inevitable. Hopefully, Rodriguez pans out in whatever role he ends up in. That contract has a lot of surplus value potential if he becomes something.
  2. glory
    Yeah they were starting a broken Alek Manoah over Francis last season. Maybe there were reasons they didn’t want to stretch him out into a SP role in 2023 (injury?) but it was beyond logical to use him as Manoah’s replacement after Alek was demoted the first time. I think they view him as a bulk reliever. My guess is it’s the starting 5 followed by White (due to options he will be on the big league team unless he stinks), Rodriguez, Tiedemann, and Francis (1-2 times through the order) in that order. If Parsons is starting games in May then the entire rotation would have gotten hurt, and at that point it wouldn’t even matter. I think having an entire pen with no optionable relievers is tough. Would make sense to trade Garcia or Richards just to free up a spot for someone like Pearson, Danner, Pop, or whoever, especially if the team can actually get something useful in return.
  3. glory
    Not necessarily Soto, but impact free agents in general. Between KK, Turner, Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, and Richards, the Jays will have ~$47m coming off the books after this season, and then between guaranteed 2025 salaries and expected arbitration increases, probably around $100m coming off the books after 2025 between Vlad, Bo, IKF, Biggio, Bassitt, Romano, Green, Swanson, and Mayza. They can go after the Soto's, Tucker's, Burnes', etc, over the next two off seasons. Of course the only way for that plan to work effectively is to have some inexpensive 2-4 WAR players starting elsewhere, so prospect development over the next two seasons will be huge, especially this season.
  4. glory
    From an entertainment standpoint I thought 2022 was fine aside from the 3000 plate appearances that Raimel Tapia was given. Yes some pitchers struggled but that happens year to year. The 2023 team was torture to watch from beginning to end.
  5. glory
    Bauer made enemies in MLB (Manfred specifically) well before the scandal happened. I’m guessing that’s at least partly a factor here.
  6. glory
    The 2021 and 2022 teams were not "borderline WC teams". The 2021 team had a 99 win expected W/L and finished 4th in their own division with 91 wins. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL and were 2nd in the AL in runs (4th in MLB). The 2023 was the closest thing to a borderline WC team during this run, and they finished with 1 fewer win than the eventual World Series champions. Don't get me wrong, the 2023 team were a huge long shot to advance in the playoffs given how the offense looked, but the 2021-22 teams were legitimately good. Sometimes the playoffs are what they are.
  7. glory
    Yeah the plan made sense (go for elite talent and if that fails go for short term vets), but the execution was poor. KK is redundant with Varsho (and coming off a season he will likely not repeat), IKF's bat isn't good enough to be a starter, and Turner is 100 years old so a 'fall of a cliff' could happen at any moment. There had to be a better way to implement this strategy. The only real hope is for a prospect or two to come up mid season (or out of ST) and surprise. Not sure I'd want to bet on that, but that might be more reasonable than hoping for KK, IKF, and Turner to be difference makers.
  8. glory
    Only way this off season makes sense is if Atkins is planning to do what the Orioles did last season and just call up a bunch of prospects mid season once they start performing in AAA, and the vetrins brought in are just to maintain/raise the floor. Otherwise, yeah, this has been a very underwhelming winter.
  9. glory
    Sounds like the Jays will view Schneider in the same way they viewed Merrifield, as a 2B and defacto 4th OF. Which means against lefties we probably see the Murderers Row lineup of Schneider in LF, Espinal at 2B, and IKF at 3B. I really hope Turner can play some 3B, even if it's a modest amount.
  10. glory
    How Atkins has operated this winter is someone who has no fear for his job security. Objectively, the team has averaged 90 wins over the last 3 seasons, and made the playoffs over the last 2, finishing with over 3 million fans in 2023. It's possible fans overstate how much at risk Atkins actually is. Granted, not everyone with a possible fragile job security is going to scorch earth like AA did in 2015, so maybe Atkins is just operating business as usual despite any potential noise about his role, but somehow I doubt that. The fact that he brought in a 39 year old DH, an injury prone OF, and whatever you want to label IKF, it seems like he's leaving the door open for prospects to take over either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Whether that means trying to integrate those prospects into an already contending team or retooling post 2024 depends on how 2024 goes. It would be pretty cool if the Jays made the playoffs again with Schneider, Horowitz, Orelvis, Tiedemann, Barger, etc, playing roles. Not sure if that's something Atkins is banking on or whether he truly believes in the vetrins he's brought in.
  11. glory
    Yeah giving him 2/15 definitely feels like they value him higher than FG projections/WAR. You don’t give that contract to someone you plan to use sparingly. I think absolute best case scenario is that they signed him to start at 3B but would move him into a super utility role if a prospect beat him out, but I’m not convinced that this FO is going to trust Orelvis or Barger to handle 3B right out of the gate. IKF will hold fort down for at least a couple of months.
  12. glory
    Interesting that Law thinks Orelvis can handle 3B defensively. If he can, then that would be fantastic for the Jays who clearly have a hole there.
  13. glory
    The Jays thought highly enough of White to trade for him, and then put him back on the 40 man roster after last season where he looked awful. I think they'll give him every chance to win a spot. He was great in his last 6 AAA starts last season, and was hitting 97 on the gun (not sure if he was doing that previously), so maybe there's some hope. If there isn't then they can always get rid of him later. Reality is, Manoah is a massive question mark, Tiedemann will be on an innings limit, Yariel hasn't pitched in a year, and the team preferred starting a completely broken Manoah over Francis in 2023. There's probably a 50% chance that White is the #5 starter to start the season if he looks competent.
  14. glory
    Yeah, Burnes is a one year commitment, and they used expendable prospect depth to get him. Trade probably would have happened even if they didn't sell the team. If they sign Snell, then that's a different story.
  15. glory
    I miss Angelos.
  16. glory
    IKF at 3B is gross, and I expect Kiermaier to regress to below average offensively. Other than that, there's a lot of volatility in the lineup. Could be good, could be average, or if Vlad/Springer/Kirk/Varsho don't bounce back, then it could get ugly. I think the team is hoping for not only bounce backs/regression, but also hoping that depth can help compensate over 162. The fact that the Jays decided to go with an injury prone KK, 40 year old Turner, and backup in IKF definitely leaves the door open for prospects in the minors, both short and long term. The development of the position players projected to start in AAA (Horowitz, Orelvis, Barger, Palmegiani, Jimenez, maybe Roden) will be crucial this season.
  17. glory
    That BA report on Barger gave me the same conclusion.
  18. glory
    If the Jays had just signed KK and Turner, and were still shopping for a 3B option, then I think the outlook on the off season would be dramatically different. Still underwhelming but no where near the doom and gloom. Knowing that there is a very good chance that a 80-85 wRC+ player will start at 3B is not only depressing in itself, but it now makes the KK/Turner signings less impactful because they don't compensate for how bad IKF figures to be with the bat. It just drags everything down. Otherwise I agree, the Jays did the sensible thing this winter by going with short term options. Gives them flexibility to spend on higher end talent next winter, which I hope is the plan. Whether it pushes the 2024 team to where it needs to be remains to be seen.
  19. glory
    Yeah this doesn't sound like good news for the Jays or AL East. Angelos ownership was the one bright spot to Baltimore's rise as it meant they were going to cheap out on everything.
  20. glory
    IKF career as a 3B according to Fangraphs: 2.6 WAR, 143 G, 559 PA, 85 wRC+ I think absolute best case scenario as a semi full time 3B, he's a 2 WAR player. I'd go with the under on that one as he will no doubt play other positions where he's not as good defensively, but I expect the bat to be around that. He seemed to change his approach last season to improve exit velocity so maybe they can squeeze a bit more juice of his bat hopefully, but I wouldn't want to count on that. I also don't expect Turner to play much 3B, if at all. I think we are all going to be praying that one of the prospects in AAA hits the crap out of the ball in ST and wins the job. Wishful thinking maybe, but that would salvage this off season a bit to me.
  21. glory
  22. glory
    That’s the way it comes off to me as well. Everyone else either wanted to play elsewhere or wanted multi years and/or more money. The Jays clearly wanted a one year deal at a specific price point, and Turner was the only one who would take it. I am firmly in the underwhelmed category as well but it’s really due to one signing. I wasn’t a fan of bringing KK back as he’s a redundant fit next to Varsho, and I’m not thrilled with having to hope a 39 year old remains good, but I can at least rationalize both of those signings. A two year deal for a 80 wRC+ player who might end up with 500 PA next season is dragging the rest of it down. If Barger ends up winning the 3B spot then that instantly makes the off season more palatable but I think it’s more likely to be IKF/Biggio at 3B, and KK/Turner doesn’t compensate for that.
  23. glory
    That's more than I expected Turner to get, but it's possible the other DH options either didn't want to come to Toronto, wanted multi year deals, or both. Seems like the Jays wanted to maintain flexibility and not get tied down to longer term deals this winter. Probably the smart move in the long run, but not sure how high it raises the ceiling for the 2024 team. Turner is 39 and could easily fall off a cliff in 2024. We have to hope he has one more good year left in him. I think they might pair this signing with a smaller bench signing now, someone like Michael A Taylor or something.
  24. glory
    If a Chapman signing doesn't happen, then I'd be shocked if IKF isn't the starting 3B. Last season Davis Schneider hit like prime Barry Bonds for a month and not only were they still reluctant to play him, but they also couldn't wait to bench him once he started to regress. Expecting them to trust Barger out of ST to handle 3B is probably a pipe dream, but I'd love to be wrong about that. Orelvis seems like a butcher at 3B based on some reports, but Barger might have a shot at being passable there. A LHB with power is exactly what the Jays need, so if they could find that internally in a position of real need, then it would be a best case scenario.
  25. glory
    If the Jays are waiting for someone's price to fall, then it's more likely to be Chapman than Bellinger, IMO.
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