glory

There was no chance the Jays were going to beat 7/175, but Semien might end up being worth that deal by the end of it, which is pretty surprising. He's been worth a shade under $100m as a Ranger according to FG and it's only been 2 years and a month into his contract. Wish the Jays could have brought him back but chances are it would have taken 8/200 to get him (assuming the Rangers wouldn't have matched that). Ideally they could have worked out a long term deal instead of the one year deal in 2021, but Semien saw himself as a 9 figure player, and he was right.

Wasn’t Hague on the 2015 team for a cup of coffee? Dude was surrounded by alphas who would have choked any coach that suggested to hit the ball the other way or sacrifice power for contact (well, at least JD would have). Between that and the fact that the AAA hitters who have actually developed on this team (DS/Clement) seem to credit him, I’m all abroad the Hague train.

Yeah it’s not about how far back they are, it’s about realistically assessing the chances of them being good enough at the end. The eye test and run differential are telling the same story, and it’s not good. Maybe things will get better and we will be singing a different tune in 2 months but there’s not many positives that would indicate that this team has that type of run in them.

I like how Davis Schneider came up, saw everyone trying to hit singles the other way, but he just laughed and kept trying to pull home runs. Not even Mattingly (or whoever it is on the Jays who likes that approach) can mess with someone who knows what his strengths are. Maybe that’s a good sign for prospects coming up (trying to be positive in the positive thread).

Is Erik Swanson warming up? He has to be given the score.

Now we know why it took so long for DS to finally become a regular starter this season. Hating singles to right field and only wanting to pull the ball to hit home runs probably made him an outcast within the org.

Then why enter 2024 with the same core and expect different results? That’s the definition of insanity, not bad luck.

Yeah that’s what I expect. Impending FAs will be moved and anyone controlled through 2025 will be kept. Then they’ll sell for real next summer if 2025 goes south (they’ll have no choice at that point). In that scenario, they better hope that Atkins gets massive hauls for Kikuchi, Jimi, Jansen, Turner, etc. If they want to delay the inevitable then they’ll have to hit on whatever selling they can do. Though selling or not, I hope they work something out with Jansen. Not expecting it but he’s a legit top catcher when he’s on the field and his injury history might make him reasonably priced even coming off a great season. Or maybe the thought of Kirk playing everyday is just that terrifying.

He's a Boras guy. I doubt an extension is even possible. Boras got him $36 million coming off 3 subpar seasons. Now that he's actually breaking out, I can't imagine he's going to do anything except try to maximize his last big contract. Would have been nice if this break out happened in 2022 rather than the final year of his contract, but either way, it's a success story for the org as they definitely paid him based on potential rather than performance when they signed him to the contract.

That's the thing, if the new GM is going to have to do what Atkins did from 2016-18, which is try to keep the team competitive rather than take a much needed step back, then it's going to make the whole thing pointless and set the franchise back many years. You could make the argument that Atkins trying to contend in 2017-18 actually ended up hurting the current competitive window because he ended up getting jack s*** in return for players who he could have traded for value in 2017 (Donaldson, Happ, Stroman, Osuna, etc). If they are hiring a new GM, then that GM has to be able to act decisively regarding the future of the team, and not just put lipstick on a pig like Atkins had to do when transitioning from the AA core. I think the one benefit here is that a new GM in this case would be taking over a team that looks like s***. Atkins took over a team that literally revitalized a city's love of baseball. Much harder to concede a rebuild a year after the Bat Flip. Much easier, in theory, to do that after the Vlad/Bo core which I think even the fans are sick of at this point. I still think they ultimately do a half assed sell off this summer, and try again in 2025.

Yeah I've said before I think when Bo falls off it's going to come unexpectedly and there will be no fixing it. I didn't think it would happen at age 26. Hopefully he turns things around soon. I can't imagine the Dodgers would give up anything for Bo at this point.

Bonilla should not come within hand shaking distance of Don Mattingly. That should be the rule.

Yeah you don't see this team get RPs from the scrap heap and turn them around, and aside from Romano, their internal development hasn't been great in that area as well. Just looking at the pen now, they spent $21m on Green, $16m on Garcia, traded Teo coming off a 3 WAR/130 wRC+ for Swanson, Tellez for Richards/Francis, Groshans for Pop (...and Bass), and Frasso for White (DFA'd twice). They've developed Romano (good), Pearson (probably sucks), and Mayza (good in 2021 and 2023). As mentioned, their minor league relievers all looked like they had promise prior to the season but now look a lot less desirable based on performance. I think for the most part Atkins has the right idea with RPs, they are volatile year to year and you shouldn't have to commit big money/years or trade anything significant for them. He's deviated from that a bit recently (Swanson trade, Green signing), but the Jays pen was a weakness in 2021-22 so in the absence of development or finding some diamonds in the rough, they kinda had to invest in it.

The 2022 team was pretty good as well. It's easy to forget because of the comedy of errors that lead to the Game 2 collapse, but they had the 3rd best record in the AL (3rd best RD), a top 5 offense, and two Cy Young contenders in Gausman and (hard to believe) Manoah. They had 6 offensive players with a 3 WAR or higher (Jansen was at 2.7 in half a season so you can really make it 7), and 8 players with a wRC+ of 115 or better (9 if you count Merrifield's 130 PA). We thought Vlad had a down year with a 3.4 WAR and 133 wRC+. I concur that breaking up the Barrio hurt the team a lot from an entertainment standpoint. Teoscar was a poor defensive player but he was very fun to watch with a fun skill set. What happened to the Jays in 2023-24 needs to be studied. The shift in offense was staggering. They went from a team that looked like they had a deep multi year run in them to a tax paying Cleveland Guardians minus Jose Ramirez.

No doubt Atkins built a nice three year regular season run (2021-23), but he did it on the backs of expensive free agents and/or short term veterans. He deserves credit for doing well in that regard, but it's about the exact opposite way for an org to build a sustainable contender. You simply cannot be good over a long period of time with bad drafting and player development. The FA well will eventually run dry. They are already a CBT paying team for the 2nd year in a row and it's going to be the 2 worst seasons of the last 4. Their ability to throw money at issues is over, and has exposed all their weaknesses from an organizational level. As mentioned, the team essentially has no controllable players. Davis Schneider is the only one on pre-arb deal that looks like he might be a 2-3 WAR regular, and the Jays don't even view him as an everyday player based on his usage so far. Practically everyone else on the team is locked up only from 2024-26. AA intentionally built a 1-2 year window when he had one foot out the door and didn't give a s*** anymore, and that window was still almost as long as the one Atkins built (and way more successful). Atkins isn't bad, but it's going to be hard to look back on this run with any sort of fondness, even though from a regular season record standpoint it was the best 3 year run by any Jays GM other than Gillick.

This is 100% what will happen. Remember in the deadline of 2017, that was AA’s core. If Shatkins didn’t sell AA’s core at the right time, instead opting to hold them too long and get nothing back for the sake of selling tickets, then I can’t imagine they will trade their own core with any more urgency. Also, Rogers probably doesn't want a tank/rebuild in any scenario, but right after stadium renovations is a pipe dream. On top of all of that, Shapiro will have a year left on his deal after this season. If he’s going to play that out, which I’m positive he will, then he has absolutely no incentive to gut the team for the long term health of the org. He has a much greater incentive to try to win in 2025. I think at absolute most we will see the impending FAs traded. Beyond that, anyone expecting a major tear down is in for disappointment. If anything, Vlad and Bo struggling this badly makes it less likely for the team to get the assets back that would make it worth moving them, so it may not even be the best time.

I think they will 100% try to contend in 2025. Shapiro has a year left on his deal and they just did expensive stadium renovations. What they do at the deadline really depends on where they are in the standings, but if they are selling, then I think it's the impending FA's only that are moved. They'll keep Vlad, Bo, Romano, Gausman, Berrios, etc, in an effort to give it one last try next year. It's exactly how they played it during the last rebuild (2017-18) and that was with AA's core. Atkins would have dismantle his own core in this scenario, and I can't see him doing that, nor should he be allowed to be doing that. It's a weird spot to be in.

Kay, Merryweather, Waguespack, Pannone, Paulino, Perez, McKinney, Drury, Wall, Spanberger, Fisher, Hatch, Johnston, Copping. Atkins doing the selling is kinda terrifying. There was Teoscar and Espinal in that group though, as well as SWR, so not all bad. The key is whether the Jays will actually trade guys one year too early rather than one year too late. It was mostly the latter during the last rebuild.

Finally another Vlad HR.

Jansen is definitely the best catcher of the 3 overall. Just extend him and hope he stays healthy.

Or it could be a mutual love fest for Biggio between the FO and manager. I really don't get it. He's about the most ordinary 1 WARish player you will find. He's fine as a cheap bench option, but no team should be benching better players to get him into the lineup on a consistent basis. Just play DS everyday and live with the consequences. He's done nothing but hit since he's come up. He's a win for the FO. A late round draft pick turned into MLB regular. Take the W, Atkins.

His last name and the fact that JS managed him in the minors. I can’t think of any other reason why he’s playing over DS and Clement.

Is there any other (well run) team that would have Davis Schneider fall on their laps and bench him as much as the Jays have?

Yeah, this org promoted Don Mattingly this season. No chance they are on par with the top orgs in baseball in this category. I'm sure they have their own internal analytics and all that, but clearly whatever they have been doing since 2023 hasn't worked, and I wouldn't hold my breath on a team who intentionally gave Donnie Baseball more say in offensive strategy to be cutting edge on anything.

It will be Mattingly. It should be Hale if anyone already on the bench as he's worked under Francona and Gibby, so maybe there's a decent manager in there, but Atkins seems like the type who needs knee pads and chapstick every time he's in the same room with Donnie Baseball. It's only a matter of time.