glory

You could be right, this off season has almost been a carbon copy of the 2016-17 winter, right down to misjudging the market by signing flawed players early. They knew the 2015-16 window was closing but wanted to keep the train moving for as long as they could without handcuffing their future flexibility. However I’m not sure if that was the same logic used here or whether they just did what they felt was the best they could do based on a bad free agent market and what turned out to be a non existent trade market. The difference between signing Ohtani and doing what they actually did is night and day. Shapiro’s contract is up after next season I believe. I would think him and Atkins are joined at the hip at this point, and there’s no reason to believe Shapiro’s job is in danger unless he himself wants to leave. Atkins has not operated like a man who is worried about job security, which makes this off season even more confusing.

That's possible, but that doesn't really excuse the off season. It just makes moving on from Chapman more sensible. The Jays had the right plan (aim high and then go for short term vets when that failed) but the execution was about as bad as possible, even more so now that the market cratered.

Yeah, I just don’t see why he was so in a hurry to sign those two, plus Turner. Yes it’s not ideal to head into spring training with holes in the roster but when the alternative is overpaying for 1-2 WAR talent (almost entirely because of defense), then just wait it out. Worst case you miss out and have to put Schneider in LF, or Roden, or Barger, or whoever, but Chapman at 3B and one of those guys in LF is likely better than what the Jays have at the moment. I’d have more respect for Atkins if he just played the prospects at this point and lived with the consequences. Just use KK and IFK as expensive bench depth. Won’t happen though.

The Jays are paying KK, IKF, Turner, and Rodriguez more than Chapman and Soler in 2024. That's crazy. And there's a plethora of vetrin OF options signing for peanuts now that wouldn't have forced the great defensive CF you traded for to play LF again. I really hope we look back on this off season positively, but holy s***, this is bad.

Yeah this is a massive L for Atkins. Misjudged the market about as bad as any GM in the league. Chapman at $18m AAV when they'll be paying the same to KK and IKF combined is horrendous.

I’d be shocked if it’s not Vogelbach. Atkins loves depth and he knows he can stash Horowitz in Buffalo. I just hope Clement wins out over Espinal somehow.

What take are you referring to? If it's about Kiermaier, then the only thing I've said is that after signing he said that he was surprised at the lack of interest in him throughout free agency, as he was expecting more teams to be in on him. I don't recall reading anything about how many teams were actually interested in him.

Tiedemann (much like pitching prospects in general) is very risky. I'd rather he throw whatever bullets he has in the big leagues, and if they have to restrict him a bit during the season for innings purposes, then deal with that when it happens. Of course this recent setback might mean he won't be ramped up in time for the start of the season. I'd have no issues with Francis getting a shot. He should have gotten a fair one last season rather than having Manoah pitch like s*** every 5th day. If he doesn't work out then move on to the next, but good teams find capable bottom of the rotation SP depth internally, and it's about time the Jays start doing it.

This does feel a little like the 2017 off season, where the team was coming off incredible SP health and a playoff appearance in 2016, and then proceeded to jump the market early (Morales, Pearce) only to see the market crater shortly after. Hell, they even signed a Cuban with no MLB experience that winter (Gurriel). It certainly looks like they jumped the gun with the KK and IKF signings. KK had little to no market based on his own words, and IKF is a 80 wRC+ player so even with the defense I don't see how that's the type of player you overpay and jump the market on. Turner is a bit more justifiable, but out of all the DH options, he was one of the least appealing to me due to age. Of course, the FA market was so bad that the only real difference between what they did and what they could have done by waiting is probably a marginal difference in wins. Only real difference would be in payroll, which would have some significance if it opened up a bit more room to add a Chapman type on a short term deal without having to worry as much about the CBT implications, but I think the FO is truly done with Chapman and don't care to bring him back. Honestly, the more I look at this team, the more I hope they say f*** it and just put Orelvis at 2B and Roden or Schneider in LF to begin the year and let whatever happens happen.

Dumping Espinal for Clement is a no brainer. Whether a team would be willing to take all of Espinal’s contract in a trade is debatable now given the market, though. Maybe the years of control would entice a team looking for a utility IF.

The Jays badly need a high impact prospect to develop on the position player side. Would be nice if Orelvis ends up forcing their hand in ST.

Yup. This same FO/manager was trotting Manoah out last season when he was not right. Wouldn't shock me if they do the same here, especially if Tiedemann isn't built up by then. I don't know when Rodriguez is going to start pitching and/or whether they want to give him a SP workload right away or not. He's another wild card in this. But I'd be shocked if they have Francis start (he probably deserves a chance to) or White. Gotta hope Tiedemann or Rodriguez somehow get that spot.

I doubt Atkins would trade Garcia/Richards given how obsessed he is with depth. It's more likely he lets Chapman sign elsewhere and he'll just stick with what they have. Much like last season, they need a RHH 4th OF who can hit LHP. I can't imagine Robbie Grossman is turning down starting gigs elsewhere. He mashes lefties and will probably come cheap. If you sign him and trade Espinal for anything that breathes, then that's instantly an upgrade plus a more logical roster construction.

If you told Jays fans after the last out in Minnesota that the team would spend $50m in free agency in the off season, and end up with KK, IKF, Turner, Green's option, and Rodriguez, I'm not sure there would be a mop big enough to clean up the vomit that would have ensued. I hope it works out in the end, but man, on paper it's very disappointing. Of course, having money to spend in a bad FA market is probably a big part of what lead to this.

Based on the current roster, it looks like DS will be in LF and Espinal at 2B against lefties. Against righties will probably be a mix and match between DS and Biggio. Like I said before I’m not sure it’s a sure thing to pencil in DS as the starting 2B. Lots of people in the org love Biggio.

The only drawback to signing Chapman would be the CBT implications as I’m sure it would take them to the next tier, which would be heavier tax penalties. I mean, they gave IKf $15m when similarly valued players are signing for a mil now. They gave KK $10.5m, and KK in an interview post signing said he was shocked at the lack of interest in him. Using the CBT or payroll as an excuse would be pretty lame. If you can get a potential 3 win improvement right now on a 1 year deal or 1+1, then they’d be foolish not to do it. I can’t believe we’ve reached a point where I’m hoping for a Chapman reunion but Atkins left us no choice given the alternatives.

If Chapman has to settle for a pillow contract then I think there's a good chance he comes back to the Jays assuming they are willing to give it to him. The Jays would get heavily penalized if they signed a qualified FA (2nd/5th highest picks, $1m in intl money), but that doesn't apply with bringing Chapman back, and they are staring at the reality of IKF/Escobar/Espinal as their 3B options. The need is there. I don't think any other CBT paying teams are linked to Chapman, but they would still have to wrestle with the idea of losing their 2nd highest pick plus international money for signing him. If he has to take a 1+1 type of deal, then the Jays do make the most sense.

9 hits, 7 singles, 0 home runs. Blue Jays baseball is back. At least they seem to be pulling the singles rather than shooting them the other way. Baby steps. Seriously though, the Jays need Vlad to be 2021 Vlad in about the worst way. Schneider at 2B should be an improvement power-wise, and hopefully Springer rebounds a bit (they seemed to acknowledge he wasn't pulling the ball in 2023 as much as he should have so maybe there's hope). This is why I was hoping for a Jorge Soler signing. They need more power badly.

Yeah, only downside would have been one year of control but Tiedemann is so risky that it would probably still be worth it. If there was a player more controllable at a position of need available then it would be a deal worth exploring. The Jays suck at developing pitching but I’ve always liked the “young position players/old SPs” model, which the Jays have essentially done the last few years. Anyway this is probably a non issue as it’s unrelated to the arm but he’s already going to be on a strict innings restriction so he can’t really afford to miss any time.

It seemed like the entire 2023 lineup tried to hit singles the other way all season (or at least it felt that way). Hopefully there are more pulled baseballs hit in the air in 2024.

If IKF's defense at 3B hasn't slipped, then I don't think a 2 WAR is out of the question assuming he plays there regularly and nearly exclusively. That's by far his best defensive position and he's really good there. I think a 3 WAR is pushing it, unless his offense goes up to something close to league average, which I wouldn't bet on. I don't think having an 85 wRC+ 3B with a 2 WAR is that appealing, though. They must think there's more to his bat. With that said, transcribing his post signing media interview, this is what IKF said about free agency: "It was very surprising. I wasn’t really expecting as many teams to call. I was kind of overwhelmed. It made me feel really good. I guess that was the biggest surprise for me. I wasn’t expecting as many teams of interest as I got“. Atkins already missed out on one two way player this winter. Once that happened, he wasn't going to miss out on another one dammit.

Urshela is a better comp to IKF than Anderson/Rosario. Yeah, Ross f***ed up.

IKF made more sense for the Jays given that he’s a really good defensive 3B, and can cover SS if necessary. He’s also someone that can transition into a utility role if a better option presents itself. The Jays clearly value defense so that was likely their mindset. Rosario is more of a 2B/OF and I think Anderson hasn’t played anywhere but SS (where his defense has regressed). I recall Robert Murray saying there was legitimate/surprising demand in IKF this winter, and IKF himself said he was surprised at how much interest there was in him. Maybe the industry values him differently than what his numbers suggest. Or maybe this is just me trying to rationalize.

I'm not an IKF fan by any means, but for the Jays, it probably makes more sense to sign IKF as his best defensive position is the one they directly needed a replacement for (3B) and both project to be below average offensively so I don't know if Rosario's slightly better bat would have been worth the likely downgrade defensively at 3B. With that said, 1) I would have preferred signing neither, and 2) the Rays cheat code will probably have Rosario with a 3+ WAR season + well above average bat in 2024.