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Nexii

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Everything posted by Nexii

  1. Nexii
    It's really just speculation whether it's the Jays or Vlad that are way off market value. Not much has been leaked
  2. Nexii
    Vlad is around 60% of Soto's career WAR projection because it's a linear decline at around 0.5 WAR per year. That would make Vlad worth around 480M if you're buying out his whole career.
  3. Nexii
    I mean if you could count on them to be 1 WAR for 15 years, maybe for a reliever. That'll never happen though with age decline. I think age decline is actually most of the reason it's non linear. Soto is probably projected to be more than 74% of Vlads career WAR
  4. Nexii
    Vlad gets rated down on range which seems to be the most weighted metric for infield. Guess it's more of a jump thing because he isn't slow in terms of run speed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb It seems they don't have a metric yet for 1B catching ability? I feel like he's probably about average at that, by the eye test. He probably makes more than average catches while also allowing more passed balls for extra bases. That is to say he doesn't step off on lost cause throws very often
  5. Nexii
    Fangraphs predicted standings are always very conservative (i.e. trending closer to .500) than other sites. Like Vegas has Dodgers at around 104 wins but FG has 97. I think of the Jays as like an 84 win team. Really hoping we add a reliever or two because it could be the difference once again
  6. Nexii
    FG depth charts overstate playing time based on roster construction, the page itself says its not the 'true' team WAR. And then you have Vegas wins which have us at around 78.5. Some of that is probably all the outcomes where we're deadline sellers again. The thing about win projections is there's a lot of unpredictability, 1 std devation is like 7.5 wins
  7. Nexii
    Does make you wonder at what point MLB gets itself in trouble with so many deferrals. It's kind of like leveraging, all it would take is a bit of a downturn in revenues and teams wouldn't be able to make the payments (Arizona got in trouble). Of course, inflation could skyrocket, and they become a raw deal for players. I think this is actually more likely and maybe we'll see less deferrals in the future as players become averse to that risk.
  8. Nexii
    PECOTA projections out https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ 742 RS, 700 RA Other top teams all have better pitching. Arizona being the exception. I feel like they could perhaps get more value upgrading the bullpen at this point
  9. Nexii
    Yea Jays had #3 payroll in 1992 and #1 payroll in 1993. I don't understand people who get upset when the Jays spend
  10. Nexii
    That is what happens when you're closeted and can't cope. Comes out in awkward meltdowns about gays
  11. Nexii
    Reminds me of the Sidd Finch story where all the teams want him, but it's not about money.
  12. Nexii
    Anyone can efficiently spend on free agents, it isn't rocket science thanks to sabermetrics. I give them a 2/10. No team spent more and had fewer wins. Good young players are the only way to win. Free agency is more like a top up, a few wins on the curve maybe. And even with free agency, they haven't convinced ownership to spend in accordance to the Jays market size. In all likelihood Jays are the biggest TV market by a lot. They should be top 3 payroll at least
  13. Nexii
    Put all the rumors in one mega thread in this forum. Sometimes they're interesting but they can feel like spam if mixed in with news and transactions
  14. Nexii
    +1 for putting rumors in their own section or thread. So much clickbait out there it gets exhausting trying to find actual transactions
  15. Nexii
    Watch Vlad put up a 9 WAR season and get 600m next year in FA
  16. Nexii
    For the same money as a top end starter we could get 2-3 relievers though. I think I'd rather have several relievers. Other than Garcia everyone is replacement level at best
  17. Nexii
    Don't disagree, although I think theres a bit of surplus value for teams having a superstar or 'face' player in terms of interest/viewership. A team of average players isn't as exciting, even if its an 81 win team either way Think of like Halladay when the Jays were terrible Anyways, other than signing someone in the echelon of Vlad they should sign shorter FA deals, spend to the cap and trade for the future where they can
  18. Nexii
    Yes by 2034 33m/year won't cripple a team. Payrolls will be around 400m. Jays have had good aging DHs before, Molitor and Winfield. Yea it's a gamble but free agency is always an overpay to begin with
  19. Nexii
    I'd be fine with 15/500 as well. The Jays are a big market team and should start acting like it. They don't need to penny pinch every dollar. Since when do the Yankees or Dodgers do a complete rebuild? Never, they just spend on FAs and finish at least .500.
  20. Nexii
    Yea Whitt would have gotten about the same as Vlad in free agency. He hedged his risk with some player options as well
  21. Nexii
    Mathing it out I'd say 10/400 at most That's 33 WAR (@12m/WAR) which I think he easily gets even as a full time DH
  22. Nexii
    I like the move only because they have to go for high ceiling/variance guys to have any shot at the post season. Steady average players won't get them there
  23. Nexii
    Are bat-only players like Vlad really more risk? I feel like offense has less variance than defensive stats year to year. Same with age-related decline. Wonder if its something Fangraphs or other nerds have looked into
  24. Nexii
    Vlad's been around 4 WAR the last 4 years, which is good for 25-30M AAV. No way they give him 10 years though. I could see like 7/200M
  25. Nexii
    Might come down to the team narrative. Like whether the Yanks or Royals win their division or not
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