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Nexii

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Everything posted by Nexii

  1. Nexii
    Final Destination: 2025 Jays Edition
  2. Nexii
    Yea I'm kinda surprised that FG or the like haven't done more sabermetrics around off-field metrics. Like FV against actual career WAR for various teams. Or whether year-to-year WAR exceeds projections for MLB calibre players. It seems like player development is where the real surplus value is these days. On field metrics have gotten so good that FA signing values are rarely much of a surprise. As far as the Jays yea maybe it's just luck lately after a period of bad luck. Personally I don't think it is entirely luck. Coaching/development is huge in any sport, especially one like baseball that's more on the skill side as opposed to raw athleticism.
  3. Nexii
    Thanks - yea I found this just after my last post. It's a significant gap for sure, though Vlad's is much larger. They have him as the 8th best hitter this year so seems like mostly bad luck
  4. Nexii
    Are players underperforming their xBA in general? For Vlad it's a huge gap. 277 AVG with an xBA of 320. Never mind the home runs, just the hits would put him back into elite territory
  5. Nexii
    Vlad is so hard to judge. I think a good portion of it is just bad luck yet again.
  6. Nexii
    It definitely feels like the Jays have caught onto something as a team with regards to hitting philosophy/approach. A lot of young players significantly outplaying projections. They just need to tweak Vlad's weird swing and then we'll really be scary
  7. Nexii
    Honestly it's big brain. They'll call up someone better now
  8. Nexii
    How is it Schneider's fault that the back of the bullpen is bad? Those are the pitchers you use when up 8-1
  9. Nexii
    Mets up 11-5 now. We're crushing the Yankees as far as fun differential right now
  10. Nexii
    What a bunt though, perfect
  11. Nexii
    Scherzer's been pretty unlucky
  12. Nexii
    We are the 2015 Royals now
  13. Nexii
    Seems like they just sort alphabetically for ties, if you go back to the first day of the season
  14. Nexii
    The whole story is weird. They would have got more value from Devers at 1B over DH in the long run since he wasn't good at 3B. I know you can't exactly convert mid season but Bregman was signed back in February. There would have been time if not for mismanagement.
  15. Nexii
    Those Pete Rose hats with 14 on them just took on a new meaning Reds really shouldn't be celebrating him :/
  16. Nexii
    I'd say it was probable that the Jays would be an 85 win team. Projections had them there on average. Too many players massively underperforming projections. There's not much left to do at this point other than clean house, both front office and team managers
  17. Nexii
    Though it is interesting that 1B wRC+ has been down a lot recently, 93 so far this year and only 104 last year. 120+ is pretty good how things are right now. I wonder why there aren't that many good slugging 1B lately? Is it because defensive metrics are pushing them into DH roles?
  18. Nexii
    Moneyball syndrome. Too many people focused on efficiency over winning. It's an overpay but it shows Rogers will spend
  19. Nexii
    I mean they can afford it... But it's very surprising to me, they've always been very risk-averse until now. And especially now given the economic uncertainty. I guess they felt the franchise really needed a face going forward, and there is value in that
  20. Nexii
    Crazy to sign him now and not in 2026 With how the US economy is going, he would have been 100-150M cheaper. All these long term deals assumed high growth/inflation, I wouldn't bet on it now
  21. Nexii
    They really shouldn't... we're heading into a recession/depression. Player salaries are going to regress a bit
  22. Nexii
    It feels like Vlad is taking a big risk. Maybe it's statistically as likely he puts up a 2 WAR season as an 8 WAR season. But it doesn't feel like it. I think he's done a poor job of PR though. It coming out that he wanted significantly over market isn't a good look, even if it's essentially the Judge financial situation.
  23. Nexii
    It's more that a ball in play with poor contact still has some chance of not being an out. As batted ball data gets better it would be interesting to see the breakdown. How many of a typical hitters hits are with good, so-so, poor contact? That might inform batting strategy more.
  24. Nexii
    Is there any proof that defense-based WAR is cheaper than offense-based? I feel like teams have figured out these market efficiencies already. That being said there are probably defensive metrics teams are researching and valuing that aren't available to just anyone.
  25. Nexii
    Soto's contract wasn't even that crazy once you sit down and calculate just how good his career WAR projections are. 65 WAR or something to age 40 makes his contract out to be $12M/WAR, and much of it in the future when that will be the going price. I think it's around $8M/WAR right now. Vlad projects to around 40 WAR, or $480M/15. He's had up and down years but all players have high variance, even the superstars. I don't buy that as a reason to pay him less. However the whole showing up to camp out of shape in 2020-21 takes him down a bit for me. Maybe something like $420-450M range
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