There's more than one way of looking at that though. Do you actually need to beat the first place team to win the division? You only need to outpace the second place team right?
So last year the Yanks were second with 84 wins, the O's only needed 85 to win the division.
But then on the other hand this division usually has two teams with win totals in the 90's although I'm not certain that will happen this year.
Altogether, it's just too hard to say with any certainty how many wins it will take.