What? How? lol
It's really basic math. Tied with the Red Sox and if you think we are similarly talented with similar remaining schedules then put it at about 50/50. But you can't forget the Orioles who are a solid team and only a game back. Even if you don't really like them with this few games left they still have a 10% chance or so. Now we are down to 40%, less then a coin flip.
EDIT: My math was a little off, should have been 45% but the point still stands.