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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    KK was so damn good last year. 2.8 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR. His batting line was a lot of fluff though. Seems like they got a best case scenario last year and paid a bit of a premium for it this year and now they are on the lower end of his outcomes. And even with bringing him back, we really need another OF. One that can at least share time with KK but ideally a full-time player with a good stick. Then lock in IKF at 3B and Schneider at 2B (great stick for a 2B). That would make the lineup look a lot better without sacrificing too much defense.
  2. Terminator
    If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone. If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
  3. Terminator
    Lol I'm just kidding ya but that was a great game to go to. I thought about you and your son after the win. Would have been a brutal loss after the first two. The players looked relieved.
  4. Terminator
    He’s pitching fine but his Ks are down big time compared to those 2 years where he was elite. Getting lucky with his BABIP and LOB%.
  5. Terminator
    Does Junior know that you spent all day trashing the guy that ended up getting the game winning hit? Or did you keep that one to yourself?
  6. Terminator
    It's really stupid. They are doing the same thing with Schneider too in that he's a perfectly acceptable 2B with a very good bat. If you move him to LF he looks like a run of the mill corner outfielder. Someone like David Peralta or something.
  7. Terminator
    Yeah the lack of internal player development forced him to contantly play the dangerous game that is Free Agency. In what has become a pivotal season for him it appears to have caught up with him.
  8. Terminator
    You've got a deal sir. Consider it officially dropped and have fun at the game tonight with BigCecil Jr.
  9. Terminator
    Here we go again. I don't even gamble but the Debbie Downers are trying to bully me in to taking a stupid bet again. I'm extremely confident that IKF will beat BigCecil's personal projections of 0 WAR for the remainder of the year lol. He even said he'd bet on it but when I tried to take him up on it he changed the parameters and now his minions jump in to try and bully me even more. As for IKF meeting his Steamer projections, by definition those are his 50th percentile outcomes and I don't see any reason why I should bet one way or the other against that. I definitely don't feel particularly inclined to make my first board bet ever on it.
  10. Terminator
    Haha I hear ya but I wasn't talking about the rest of the team which is a dumpster fire with very little going right. But the convo turned to IKF specifically and I think he's a solid player and and one of the few things that is actually working.
  11. Terminator
    2.2? Lol I don't think so pal You started this by saying that you would take the under on 1.2 for the year: I'll take the over on that, but if you want to squirm your way out of it I wouldn't blame you.
  12. Terminator
    Yeah because he's playing 3B where his defensive skills combine with the positional adjustment to juice his overall defensive value. 2B is another good position for him. In 2023 he was inexplicably playing mostly in the OF so all his defensive value vanished. In 2022 and 2021 he had some solid defensive value, but he played SS which which strains his skills. He also used to be a C which is a whole different animal. Keep him at 3B, which for some reason he has never done full-time in his career, and he'll accumulate WAR at a steady clip. I actually think he is exactly what we needed. He's tracking to be a 2-3 WAR 3B/2B for a team that had a glaring whole at 3B. But nobody trusted him fully, including Atkins, so they added Turner as the DH, partly because he could play some 3B in case IKF couldn't produce. If they would have just penciled IKF in as the starting 3B, it would have let them get a DH who could play some LF which is what we really need.
  13. Terminator
    The 1.1 WAR he has accumulated is already in the bank. It could go down, but only if he plays worse than a replacement level player. Steamer600 thinks he's a 2.2 WAR player. So I'm not sure what you are seeing to suggest that he'll be replacement level or worse from here on out. But hey if you want to bet on the under I'll happily take the over.
  14. Terminator
    lmao
  15. Terminator
    He's already got 1.1 WAR a third of the way through the season. You think he's replacement value the remainder of the year?
  16. Terminator
    I like putting Kirk in at C if they are going to go with Vlad at 3B like you suggested. The team defense is a strength and they can't just sacrifice all of it for small gains in offense. Kirk stealing some strikes with his framing can help make up for Vlad at 3B and Schneider in the OF over KK, etc. I think the main thing I'd do right now is put Turner and Vogelbach in a platoon which they kind of are. Turner hasn't been as bad as it seems. His xwOBA is .322 but he is in this first percentile for bat speed. He has a good swing and a good eye so he can still hit but I wouldn't want him in their against high velo righties. Plus, Vogelbach is hitting the s*** out of the ball this year.
  17. Terminator
    That was such a complete and total ass kicking lol Just teeing off on our ace, one ball after the other being hit hard They hit more homers that game then we do in a week and they had tons of other hard hit balls
  18. Terminator
    Yeah this is a big year for Atkins. Missing the playoffs in 2021 and then early dramatic WC exits in 2022 (blowing the biggest lead in playoff history) and 2023 (pulling Berrios) didn't give him any leeway to have a down year. He's probably shaking his head at how unlucky that is but the way to work around the bad luck is to just build a better team. If the team had previously gone on an extended playoff run or won the division then he'd have more rope. But he put himself into a make or break year and it's not looking good (but it's not over yet!).
  19. Terminator
    We've been beaten worse than 7-2 this year but that was by far the biggest beatdown we have received so far lol It seemed like they had more hard hit balls in that 1 game than we have had all season
  20. Terminator
    I hear ya. I certainly wouldn't bet on them right now either. But I wouldn't have bet on Gabriel Moreno, a 160 pound slap hitter, launching bombs off of Corbin Burnes, Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn (ok that one I can see) and Jordan Montgomery either. But he did. And the Jays had a better offense then the D-Bags last year by far.
  21. Terminator
    So all you need is 5 or 6 guys to be dangerous? Seems accurate enough. It could be a guy with great prospect pedigree who shits the bed shortly after (Carroll) or a slap hitting Catcher who somehow starts hitting home runs for what is the first and maybe last time in his career (Moreno). Just get 5 or 6 guys to play hot at the right time and you're dangerous.
  22. Terminator
    This is getting stupid so feel free to have the last word but you just talk completely out of your butt lol If the D-Bags had "frontline real deal talent" to legitimately get them to the WS last year, then why is that "frontline real deal talent" producing a 27-32 record right now? It's basically the same team with a few pieces added. It's because they were never that good to begin with and merely getting into the playoffs gives you a shot to advance no matter who you are.
  23. Terminator
    They aren't a very good team. I know you can't admit it because you went all in on this theory that the playoffs don't involve luck/randomness/hot streaks or whatever you want to call it but it was obvious that they were getting some extremely fortunate play (Moreno has 9 career homers in over 600 plate appearances, he had 4 in 63 ABs last year, for example) from guys that were unlikely to do so. And if you admit that they suck (and frankly they are probably one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs) then you have to admit that the Jays could make a run as WC3 which would prove your arguments over the past few months wrong. If we continue to suck ass at the ASB, which is certainly possible, then we should sell. Not sure what opportunity costs I'm missing out on by not throwing in the towel now.
  24. Terminator
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2023-06-02 Standings this time last year. Phillies were 7 games under .500. They ended up winning 90 games and a WC spot. They finished the year one game away from making the WS. Yankees were 9 games over .500 and didn't even make the playoffs. Rays looked like they might put together an all-time great season and faded in the WC round. It's a long season is my point.
  25. Terminator
    Well let's see where we are at the ASB. It's too early to throw in the towel with definitive statements like that. A good June and this team could be in the lead for a WC spot. If we continue to suck, then it will be time for a rebuild/re-tool. Plus, you STILL seem to think that mediocre WC teams can't go on playoff runs. You tried telling me the D-Backs were some sort of special 84-win team last year. After their horrible start this year it's obvious that nothing is great about them, they just got lucky. If you get in you can go on a run with a little bit of luck. The team that won it all was a 90-win Wild Card team who is under .500 this year. They weren't anything special either they just got hot at the right time.
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