Olerud363

There lies the problem, the business doesn't currently have a vaccination requirement. If MLB institutes a vax requirement the problem is solved, if they don't, and if some key owners and/or the union don't want one it's a mess.

If MLB institutes a mandate then yes. The problem is what if MLB doesn't institute a mandate ? Some people have been naively thinking, in that case, Toronto would hold a home-field advantage for the entire year, if teams can't bring their entire squad to Toronto. I can't see Boston and New York just allowing Toronto to have that kind of advantage. Who knows. Maybe they do let Toronto have that advantage... Nobody seemed to try and fight for Kyle Irving.

It sounds like they already committed to it. I suspect it won't affect any signings. I doubt anyone unvaccinated would sign in Canada anyway with the additional restrictions that were being placed on them. I don't get what the end point will be. NBA seems to have just let these things go. Kyle Irving can't even play in his home city right now. However will MLB do the same? If the Red Sox or Yankees can't bring some of their players to Toronto will they just say... cool! I still think there is a chance Buffalo Blue Jays result in this. Call me crazy but twitter posters are already bringing it up. I also think there is a good chance that the other teams in the East just make sure all their important players are vaxed, and it only becomes a small issue to teams that visit Toronto once a year. The NY City vax laws are pretty strict anyway, so I can't really see un-vaxed wanting to play in NY. Boston isn't as strict so maybe they become the problem.

Pujols is not a pinch hitter he should be DH hitting 4th. He will hit .215 but could get 25 homers and 90 rbis hitting behind Guerrero JR and Seager (not Kyle). It is time to show Pujols the respect he deserves for a career well done, and let him get 700 plate appearances in the clean up spot to chase 700 homers and the rbi record. Pederson can be the pinch hitter, and Biggio too. What have they done? Nothing. So called on base guys who don't get on base that much really.

It might seem weird but his best stretch was in 2019 when he was on the 5-2 program. 5 innings one start, 2 the next. Unconventional but would be interested to see how he would do in the majors with that strategy. Leaves some innings to be covered for sure.

It seemed like they also pulled starters early, used openers a couple times. I think Fried had the longest start in the playoffs at 6 innings. Ian Anderson got pulled after 5 with a no-hitter. In his start before that he was pulled after 4, giving up only 1 run. These are the kind of moves you'd hear about from the old school guys when they don't work, but when they work no one says anything.

Crazy. Looks like what they actually got didn't pan out. It's almost like it's better off to make these trades when you don't have a super-prospect. Like Gurriel, Jansen, Alford and Borucki would of been a better return compared to what they got (what they got is still developing so maybe someone will break out). Trade negotiation - We demand your best 4 prospects. We are Alpha, we won't give in. Team with not so great top 4 prospects - We will be your Bitch. We will give in.

I was under the impression there is room in the payroll for some aggressive signings. Whether those players will come or not is another question. A lot of people's off season proposals seem to be similar, add three players (including Semien or his replacement). The other day I heard something like trade for Chapman, Sign Schwarber and Taylor. Is that unrealistic too?

I don't think Espinal should be in aaa, but I think at the end of the off-season, if Grichuk, Biggio and Espinal are still here, they should be the bench. Those guys will still get like 1000 at bats between them. A good offseason will have Semien resigned, or replaced, a good left handed DH/Outfield bat added, and a Taylor/Seager level signing. Then Biggio/Espinal and Grichuk are depth.

Update! Seager had 3 WAR in 2019 in 100 games, 1.5 WAR in 60 games in 2020. 2.5 in 2021. Terrible batting average but decent secondary stats. Plays in a horrible hitters park. Giants just won 107 games by getting good seasons by a bunch of older guys like Seager.

He may blow because he is old, but he is not Randal. Walks more, way better road splits. 35 career WAR to Randal's 10. Beat Randal 2.5 to 0.5 last year, projected to beat him 2-1 next year. If Randal and Seager played in the same park no one would compare them.

Seager is a great option as the third position player added. I would want to sign him as a risk signing. It may seem strange to view a 34 year old as a guy with upside, however his home/road splits are dramatic and it would be interesting to see how he would do in Toronto, as a 140 game player kept away from the toughest lefties. He could also totally fall apart so you don't want to have to count on him. If Payroll is high enough and Seager's price is reasonable they could throw 10 million or something at him.

I forgot Springer... so more like this.. so why do you want Pujols anyway? He is 48 years old and obese and can't hit anymore. Guerrero isn't really going to be moved to lf.. I don't think. But OK say it happened. Need Matt Olson, not Pujols. Kirk/Martinez/ for Matt Olson? cf Springer .260 .360 ..520 ss Bichette .300 .350 .500 lf Guerrero .305 .390 .590 3b Seager .300 .360 .480 1b Pujols .230 .255 .365 (or Matt Olson .270 .350 .510) rf Hernandez .260 .320 .480 dh Gurriel .280 .320 .480 2b Biggio/Espinal .260 .340 .410 c Kirk/Jansen .240 .330 .450

What would the lineup be? If you move Guerrero to lf then I guess Pujols is 1b (not DH) and Kirk can be DH Lineup could be as follow (with projections from a proprietary system in my brain, but I bet they are close to the real projections) Nice lineup except Pujols sucks. Why not Matt Olson if moving Guerrero to lf? ss Bichette .300 .350 .500 3b Seager .300 .360 .480 1b Pujols .230 .275 .375 lf Guerrero .305 .390 .590 cf Hernandez .260 .320 .480 rf Gurriel .280 .320 .480 dh Kirk .280 .370 .460 2b Biggio/Espinal .260 .340 .410 c Jansen .240 .300 .450

Yeah... and Ray and Berrios were available for 8 months combined, next year it will be 6. So in one sense Berrios has replaced Ray already, and now (if trying to replicate the 2021 team) you need to replace 2 months of Berrios with another deadline deal... of course they'll do more than that and try to get another top rotation piece for the full year for 2022, and if they do team will look good going in. [edit] yes injuries, health, once in a lifetime all star and cy young seasons, blah, blah, blah... but we are talking Ray and Semien leaving, not injury luck.

Semien projection makes sense. Career average with recent years weighted a bit more. Teoscar and Gurriel's projections are a bit harder to justify. 28 and 29 year old hitting below career averages? Teoscar is perhaps penalized because of k-rate... Can't really figure out why Gurriel would be projected lower than career rates... he doesn't have a super high k rate. Maybe the system is also weighting in his minor league numbers which are actually super-crappy.

Looks like there are Steamer updates up... I'm a little confused as to how and when the Steamer updates roll in to Fangraphs. Looks like until recently the Steamer 2022 projections were the 2022 projections based on stats up to 2020, and the Steamer600 were preliminary 2022 projections based on stats up to 2021. However the 2022 projections under the main Steamer link have now changed to reflect 2021 stats. The rate stats are similar (but not exactly the same) as Steamer600. The playing time is now realistic. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=14&lg=all&players= Looks like Vlad 5.7 WAR, Bo 4.6, both almost as good as in 2021 Semien 4.0 WAR Berrios 3.4 WAR, Ray 3.3

Super awkward. As if that would ever work. I doubt the Jays really think Barfield contributed that much. They had no problem expanding Dante Bichette's role in a similar scenario. If they thought Barfield was helping a lot they would have given a paid special assistant role no problem. Happens all the time.

This seems really weird. Why did Barfield bring it up? The team didn't. Why not just keep it quiet? Was something else going to break and Barfield is being pre-emptive? Almost seems like a humble brag, like a way of getting credit for helping them.

Is there any reason other than bad luck he is a life time .210 hitter? Maybe he is just a .250 hitter with a bit of walks and power that has had rotten luck.

This is why I think it will be so hard to get value for him. If the Jays are shopping him, the other teams might think they are shopping him because he can't get in shape, and will be hesitant to give up value.

How does his bad body limit his upside? It increases risk, but the upside is huge. Especially if he gets in better shape. His minor league numbers are unreal. He is one of the players with the most upside in MLB. He has the second best minor league numbers, per game, in Blue Jay history. Kirk maybe has more standard deviation then anyone in baseball. Reasons he could be a super star: Historically good minor league on base, slugging and k/bb. Second best in Jays history? Comparable to Delgado. Reasons he could be bad: Obesity, injuries, minor league numbers could be deceptive because of low sample size. Low number of minor league games played could have future negative effects. Really hard to put a value on Kirk, and no one seems to be looking at the details here. Just 'Yo Bro, fat little guy will probably just hit .240 and couldn't block Ray's slider that Friday night against the tigers'

By that logic we could shut down the board as it is not worth discussing anything... Nobody on this board has the combination of intelligence and data that a major league organization SHOULD have. On the other hand there is so much weirdness in scouting rankings I wonder how inefficient player value really is. A recent case is Luciano (5th overlal mlb prospect) vs Orelvis Martinez (44th) Luciano : Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60 Martinez: Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55 Their scouting rankings are the same across the board except Luciano is rated a grade higher in power and Orelvis higher in speed. However Orelivs showed more power last year, 28 homers to 19. So how does this make any sense? Maybe there is a reason they are ranked so far apart but I wonder whether or not the way the industry views prospects is sane. I'd worry that trading Pearson and Kirk right now would be a waste, because they are at at a real low point in playing time and some traditional metrics. Do we think organizations like Colorado would value Pearson, Kirk and Martinez correctly? Some organizations would, maybe a reason to expect a trade with a good organization but not a bad, just given the low points in playing time (because of missing 2020 and injuries) some of the Jays prospects are at.

Kirk is a .320 minor league hitter with like a 90 - 60 bb to k rate in the minors who already has had almost 200 decent mlb plate appearances showing power, good k-bb, his MLB numbers look kind of blah because of a late slump that hit his batting average Pearson was an A+ pitching prospect after 2019, with 100 mph velocity and good breaking stuff. Then the last 2 years have been a write-off I don't know, just seems like such a low point for Pearson and Kirk that you won't get value for them... on the other hand maybe all the teams are smart enough now to realize their true ceilings.

Quick add to above.. Roberts is projected to continue doing what he has in 2020 AND 2021 combined, so projection may look low if you think his 2021 is real.