Olerud363
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Everything posted by Olerud363
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Yes. This is right. 1. Need to convert the 4 young catchers to 2 catchers. Could be partly by position changes (ie Moreno to third, Kirk to DH). Doesn't have to be done by April 1st, as Moreno may need more time in Buffalo. 2. Need to convert the 3 right handed 35 walks a year outfielder/DHs to 2 of them and left handed 70 walk a year outfielder/DH. Grichuk is the weakest so it would be great to get rid of him and have an on-base-ish lefty come in, but it won't be a one on one trade.... and neither will one of the other 2 be traded one on one for Jesse Winkler. Still through a series of moves need to convert a low obp righty for higher obp lefty outfielder some how. 3. s*** bullpen is no longer s*** and most of them are coming back. Need to keep Pearson and Merryweather healthy. Need to be creative with Pearson. Has been looking good for 2 innings at a time so open or take over in 6th when 'cough' a lefty that gets creamed 3rd time through the order is pitching (Ray may be gone but still have Ryu).
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Fire Charlie Montoyo - The thread worked guys!
Olerud363 replied to TwistedLogic's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
The worst decision of the season was a decision he couldn't possibly make. Leaving a homer prone pitcher that gets bombed 3rd time through the order to face Judge in the 6th. Going forward the answer isn't to fire Charlie but to get the analytics team more involved. Can listen to the 3rd time through the order stats and use this game as justification. I guess they need to build a deeper bullpen, or trust mediocre guys with 4 run leads to make the innings workers. Also seems to me Rays let starters go further in non-leverage games than close ones. Need to stuff like that. Let Ray keep going if he's leading 9-2, or losing 3-1 (to cover the innings). On second thought maybe he does need to be fired, because you need an Alpha to pull a Cy Young candidate in a close game in the 6th. -
It should factor in. As should the 32 homeruns he gave up and his overall track record and teams should come up with a price that fits his expected value. Interesting that Montoya did the opposite of Cash in the World Series last year did with Snell. How many times do you hear that "guy was rolling, manager needs to stay with him and ignore the analytics". Analytics are right in a probablistic sense, just not always right, if you pull the guy whos terrible 3rd time through the order, even if rolling it will work out more times than not. The time it doesn't media and old schoolers will fry you. Imagine if he had taken Ray out and this had happened?
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He called it correctly. The season was over because at that point it was no longer realistic for everything else to go perfectly right. Needed 3/4 against the twins to give room for a random bad inning by Ray or something.
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Chuckles only sacrificed 10 times this year I think. One of the lower totals. Gibby was in the 25 range 2015 and 16 I think. Chuckles has been OK with the relievers since he got better relievers though I heard last night he did something stupid. Gibby used Latroy Hawkins a few times in close games in 2015. If Latroy had shown his age (he did not) Gibby would have been roasted. Gibby played Dionor Navara at first base because he felt bad they signed Russ Martin. He played Eziquiel Cabrera over Smoak at times... which in retrospect was horrible. This stuff happens. Doubt Gibby is a ridiculous improvement over chuckles.
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Buck's broadcasting future with the team
Olerud363 replied to 43211234's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
It's always the same pattern, someone posts a establishment friendly quip, that is often not accurate, but it is left untouched, just a good laugh, until someone corrects the first person. Then it's the correction (often accurate) that mods become concerned with because it is "getting political". But it's never the original that they care about. For example if someone said "Buck is a f***ing Moron, 95% of Canadians are vaxed and they all want the vaccine mandate", mods wouldn't care, and have a chuckle even though not quite accurate Then if someone responded "well it's more like 70-80% of Canadians vaxed and I'm not sure how many want the mandate but ... ", that person would have their post taken down, even though accurate. -
Slight variation on above Go back mostly to the old AL East/West and NL East/West, but keep the wild card s***. Each division has a winner and 2 wild cards, who play a play-in to play the winner. That expands the playoffs a bit to 12 teams, but only 4 with guaranteed playoff series. AL East Old School just the way it was Toronto New York Boston Detroit Baltimore Milwaukee Cleveland
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Need to re-align a tad with respect to history. Detroit moves to the AL East where they belong. Milwaulkee comes back to the AL in AL central. TBR goes to NL East and Atlanta back to the central, where they belong as historically they were the NL West for some godamn reason. Don't have to deal with TBR anymore AL East Old School Toronto New York Boston Baltimore Detroit
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I can't think of many other guys who were given so little playing time as a very young player, but burnt a lot of service time. Part of it is injury. Plenty of guys got 150 at bats at the same age. But if I recall Fielder was up some of 86 and all of 87 and 88, and was getting around 200 at bats a year as Mgriff's platoon while Willie Upshaw played first. OK. Getting way into the past here and people will get annoyed. Main point just is we burnt a lot of Kirk's service time for a 1/3 time player.
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Kirk - Son of Cecil Fielder by a Mexican mother? 1987/88 - Blue Jays give 240 pound 22 year old youngster fatty named Cecil Fielder 140 at bats a year Cecil does OK with 140 at bats, but Jays not impressed let him go to Japan 2020/2021 - Blue Jays give 240 pound 22 year old youngster fatty named Kirk 140 at bats a year They are similar. Cecil couldn't catch and struck out more. So they are not that similar except for playing time and fatness.
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Reese McGuire in the lineup. That must end the season for some people... no? I know Biggio isn't tested or completely healthy, but if you want an extra lefty vs Cole Dickerson Espinal Reese or Dickerson Kirk Biggio
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eye balling it Seattle is not only over-performing their pythagoran but their runs scored are overperforming their underlying stats, Toronto is underperfroming both. Toronto .264 .330 .460 810 runs TBR .241 .320 .446 832 runs (TBR overperforming probably) Seattle is in the ballpark with NY Yankees, Detroit in runs, but has a worse statline NY Yankees 694 runs .239 .325 .409 Seattle 684 runs .226 .303 .389
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The absolute one that got me was game 2 of the double header against Boston Verdugo's ball had less exit velocity and similar launch angle to Vlad's but went 1 foot farther and an inch over the fence. Vlad's looked gone for sure off the bat and caught. I still can't believe that ball was caught. There is variation among balls, they also apparently use a humidor in Toronto now. Maybe Vlad's ball was from a fresh batch that they just got out of the humidor. Maybe Verdugo's had been sitting out for a while. Maybe a little old lady was told funny gossip giggled, and wound the strings tighter when crafting Verdugo's ball, and was sloppy with Vlad's. I still can't believe that didn't leave the park.
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I think in that Seattle game they also lost the winning run in the top of the 9th because the string of the glove might of touched the baserunner as he slid into home. Seemed like a couple of posters actually thought the string did brush the baserunner, nevertheless seemed like a total violation of the 'conclusive' evidence rule. What if balls 2 inches out of the strike zone were called properly top of the 9th last Monday night in Tampa? So many stupid things.
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Yeah... Confidence is like when you are confident about the future and say "I am going to win the triple crown next year. Get some ribbeys and won't let a third rate catcher beat me in homers, and the team will be in 1st by enough that there will be peace on Blue jays Message Board" This is more like I should be the MVP because I'm 2nd in a lot of categories that I lost the lead in during an 1-21 stretch in the key games. That other guy pitched 130 great innings and basically tied me in homers.. but screw him. My team got 10 more wins and fourth place in the wild card just behind the negative run differential Mariners.
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The Yankees regularly rest Stanton and Judge. The fans and media are often annoyed at this, as the Blue Jays fans would be if Guerrero was rested once or twice a month. In fact they did do this his first year, and people hated it, and people hated it the one day Charlie rested him, first day of August. It's a valid topic. Do you think Guerrero should play 161 games year in year out? 155 would be better, rest him Wednesday on the road 5 times. Stupid Charlie likes to rest them Sunday or Holiday at home. Guerrero looks gassed Stanton and Judge do not seems like a pretty valid topic for a message board on Blue Jays baseball.
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More Wilner than Grant.
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Judge and Stanton were given 2 or 3 regular rest days a month since April. I watch the Yes network call-in show regularly. Lots of complaints at the time when they rested, no complaints now when they are peaking late and f***ing launching it against the beta teams the last 7 days.
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Seattle now ahead of us despite Toronto being 20 games ahead in pythagoran record. Jesus. And people on this thread are complaining about pace of the game and index cards and s***? If the 2021 Blue Jays could have 2 games extra because Pete Walker called the right pitches to a reliever that would change the season If we could have an extra couple of games because of index cards it would have changed the season. s***. And this is why the evolution of the game will always be towards hyper optimizing via analytics... Jays aren't going to just say 'f*** it'. They are going to realize they are losing Ray and Semien, and missed a big opportunity and will try to hyper-optimize everything else to try to squeeze a couple more wins next year, out of a roster that may be less talented.
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Alpha and Beta explain everything far better than saber-metric, or saber-matrix or whatever the betas call it. Alpha - Salvador Perez - never bothered with the homerun title, already has a ring, but when he smelled the homerun title he nailed it. Alpha - Yuli Gurriel - A cuban legend, An MLB ring, and now nailing a batting title too, and maybe another ring. Alpha - Anothony Rizzo, a ring and looking for another. In tonight's Blue Jays loss the winning rally will involve Rizzo, it always does, sets it all up so the pitchers have no choice but to pitch to the big guys. Alpha - Kevin Mather - build the Mariners. career ruined by betas, but this is his revenge, laughing at the betas as they calculate their run differentials. Charlie - enjoys bongos and is polite to the umps. Alpha vs Beta, Alpha always wins.
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Season over! I'll call it. There is alpha and there is beta and alpha comes before beta. Accept it and move on. Rizzo - Alpha. Will always get the little hit. Will never give up. Unlike Guerrero and the Jays will not slump, will not take s***, and will dunk one to left, or get hit by a pitch to set up the big inning. Boone - Alpha. Saw what he did in 2003. Where was Charlie then? At Denny's in Columbus or something. Kevin Mather - Alpha - the betas fired him, but he established a culture of Alpha. Run differential - Beta - a meaningless stat for the betas. Winning - Alpha Your 2021 Wild Card Matchup The NY Yankees vs. The Seattle Mariners a matchup of Alphas. Kevin Mather executive of the year?
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We could be chasing a team with a -50 run differential by the end of the day. That would be fitting.
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GDT 2021 | AL Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching Thread
Olerud363 replied to TwistedLogic's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I think it was nobody on 2 out then 2 walks. There were some close pitches that were called balls in that inning too. -
I was asking JuniorFelix54 if 'the season is over'... yes most other posters know there are the scenarios we can make it.
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Is the season over or not? Say we win tomorrow, then does the season depend on tomorrow nights Yankee/Red Sox game? So we need Toronto win tomorrow and Boston win tomorrow to turn the season back on?