Olerud363

Top fWAR of Jays picks. Olerud and Kent had similar career paths, struggling to get full time play for a few years.

Stieb, Halladay, Olerud, Devon White Tony Fernandez close, bad baserunner. Worse base-runner I've seen stats scouting. Also remember him being real bad when I real-scouted him when I was 11. Problem was he was crazy. One year he had 17 triples but I think got caught at 3rd 20 times. lol. Probably not that much but I remember it being bad.

Top Blue Jays draft picks according to fWAR 1. Hallady 65 2. Olerud 57 3. Kent 56 4. Stieb 45 Something like that I think

John Olerud 9063 plate appearances 57 fWARs Roberto Alomar 10400 plate appearances 63 fWARs Blue Jays Message Board question of the day. Which Blue Jay has more fWAR per plate appearance? John Olerud or Roberto Alomar? Blue Jays Message Board question of the day 2. Top 5 all time position player fWAR. Position player must have been drafted or signed by Toronto Blue Jays.

Why should Alomar be ahead of Olerud? 91-95 Olerud 19 fWAR, Alomar 20 but... Olerud more fwar per 162 (because Cito is a moron and platooned him) Olerud played 2 extra years for Jays Olerud 57 career fWAR... Alomar 63, but Alomar played 1 extra season and never got platooned. Olerud not banned from level of excellence. Olerud not on level of excellence because Cito is an ******* who messed with his career. (platoon 'pull dat ball')

Biangini and Fowler will be team-mates in Buffalo I guess, Stroman is with the Cubs after 3.5 WAR a year like clockwork despite being a head case.

I'm kidding. You do realize though that 'Own Nothing' is an alt-right/trucker talking point, right? People literally think that in a few years Trudeau and the other Davos attendees are going to take all their stuff and they will roam from common cubby to cubby on one of the village bikes. Laika is obviously joking, but kind of making fun of the trucker/alt-righters. So it's the kind of good natured politics, slyly demeaning the right of Trudeau, that is allowed on the board.

They bought a house in Orangeville for like 350,000 in 2013 and are claiming it is worth 5 times that now based on what their neighbors house is. I live in a basement 1 bedroom with 2 room-mates and we are getting in some Ukrainians to help with the bills... but great to hear that someday I can get that house without paying big tax.

How do I report to mods??? This is very political. "Own nothing" is coded trucker talk, Implying Trudeau and Singh plan to have us own nothing, except a dental/drug plan. We can't afford our own house but could potentially inherit our parents house which is worth 1.8 million, however Trudeau and Singh will take 1 million of that and even if we could pay it we won't have enough left over to pay property tax. See ! Political. Now you've gotten me going too.

Grant will finally decide to announce he was wrong about something and plan to post that Billy McKinney is not the next Justin Upton May 15th. However Billy will find his way to some playing time, get off to a hot start, and Grant will justifiably hold off on that announcement. Billy will be re-acquired by the Jays at the deadline to balance the lineup. His final numbers will be .282 29 83, and that will be close enough to Justin Upton like numbers that Grant will never have to admit he was wrong. Tapia will also be picked off 3 times, once in a key situation also ensuring Grant will never have to admit being wrong about that.

Biggio goes Gallo and breaks Gallo's record for position player WAR hitting < .200 (well not sure if Gallo has the record but had 3.5 WAR last year with .199... anybody with more? Maybe some crazy d catcher or short stop or something) Cavan Biggio .197 148 walks 46 homeruns, defense at second rates unbelievable, 30-1 as a base-stealer with every other base running metric lights out. Ends up with 8.1 WAR. Sees more pitches than any other player in history.

No one is trolling you. You are just wrong, and people are calling you out. That's not trolling. I have no desire to ever troll you. Trolling is when you say something correct, and people attack you anyway. Like if you said "Matt Chapman could rebound". And people were like "Your so stupid Grant. Chapman will never rebound. He will hit .150".

It's hard not to be political here, however we now have players who probably aren't going to come to Toronto for political reasons. Beyond the players not coming because they aren't vaccinated, others may not come because they don't like where the culture here is headed, regular lockdowns, mandates, etc., even if vaxed they may not be cool with the environment. Not saying it is right or wrong, just saying it's a legit issue. So it's not just the 20% or whatever of unvaxxed that Toronto can't sign, it's a larger number including vaxed with concerns. Jays seemingly did a good job navigating that this winter, but we don't know how it will play out long term, and we don't know what other options would have been available without the vax constraint.

Yeah. Sounds like it is a net disadvantage especially long term, as it sounds like there were players we could have had, were it not for the mandate. Carlos Correa too maybe? Would be ironic if Jays miss the playoffs by a game or 2, and say Robbie Ray leads Seattle to that spot, and Correa leads Twins to a spot.

Tapia is not a bad baserunner and neither is Villar. You are wrong. It's like saying Bo Bichette is a bad hitter because he is stupid and swings at bad pitches. The numbers say Bo Bichette is a good hitter even though he swing at bad pitches because the positive out weighs the negative. Villar and Tapia are very good baserunners because the positive out weighs the negative. Is it because they are fast? Partly. However if they were truly stupid and ran into 50 outs a year or something they'd have horrible baserunning scores. So their high scores aren't 'because they are fast', it is because they are taking calculated risks which overall pay off.

Even Villar has been a positive baserunner every single year, with a great score in 2019. For the same reason that Justin Smoak doesn't lead the league in caught stealing he doesn't lead the league in stupid outs either... the caught stealing and stupid outs leaders are usually fast guys that are gaining more than they lose from their risks.

I mean, if Grant has some useful info, like the formula for baserunning is flawed he should share it. His observations that Tapia makes a mistake every time Grant watches is dumb... unless Grant only watched twice or something. If he has some stats on baserunning outs made + pickoffs that would be a useful start but wouldn't tell the entire story, need to know advancements. And smart people have looked at this... I'm always willing to consider the formula is flawed, but people need to explain why and offer a better formula. If Grant can see Tapia getting picked off and s***, it should be in the stats. If it's not we should join Grant in pressuring fangraphs to fix the stats

Villar and Tapia - The thinking man only gambles when the pay-off is above the risk. To chance the extra base or not? A deep problem but the swift should take the chance if the extra bases gained are greater than the failures to a ratio computed using the principles of sabermetrics. As thinking men we take risks that make sense in this statistical framework. Grant -- AAARGGG. Villar caught going to second.... FFHHHHHH Tapia picked off. Stupid!!!!

I was thinking the other day how do you find the next Cedric Mullins? Cedric Mullins is a very rare occurrence and it may be a fools errand to try and find another. However if you designed a 'next Cedric Mullins finder AI' who would it find? Would Tapia be on the list? (keeping in mind most the 'next Cedric Mullins' would be failures.

Tapia - 142 games .284 .321 .364 1 WAR Reese - 71 games .244 .291 .322 0.5 WAR Kirk 78 games .288 .423 .490 2.8 WAR

I never heard that but nothing would surprise me. Delgado was a f***ing tank at 19. I remember hearing about him in like 91 or 92 on the radio before real time prospect lists. Then I'd always buy a Bill James book at the beginning of the baseball season. In '93 Bill said about Delgado 'Best hitting prospect in the minor leagues. Hit 30 home runs in the Florida State league roughly equivalent to 108 at high dessert.' That was sabermetrics in the 80s and early 90s. Bill James was the guy doing it, and he was kind of an odd guy, he might tell you something, he might not. He'd throw the stats he felt like out there. So like Delgado he was pointing out the differences in minor league parks... but you had to read between the lines. So Delgado was naturally awesome. Then kind of a dissapointment for a few years. Then awesome for a few years. Did he 'roid? I don't know. He kind of hit the way he was suppose to. Unlike maybe say Giambi. However maybe he started slow and got frustrated and then did... not accusing him of a thing because I don't know. I mean there were guys like Bagwell, who were like 3 homer guys in the minors and matured at 40, and Delgado who was a 30 homer guy in the minors and matured to 40... so it made sense for Delgado, so I'd like to think he didn't and was the best non-roided hitter in baseball.

Yeah. The total package wasn't there. On base percentage was mediocre, power outside of 86/87 was not top tier. 87 was a weird year. It was like a preview of mid 90s that just randomly happened in the 80s.

lol. Charlie's moves cost like 1/100 win every 10 games. So like 1/10 of a win. It's a coin flip today. Tied 3-3. 50% win probability for each team. And here we go... DEAR LORD NO! CHARLIE JUST BUNTED. JAYS WIN PROBABILITY DOWN to 49.9%. Funny thing is half the people on the board mentally count each Charlie gaff as 1 win.

OK. Maybe I shouldn't be dismissing Grant. I actually had no idea Raptors weren't that popular across Canada. Could it also have something to do with the Leafs playing at the same time? lol. Half my friends were watching Leafs in October 92 and 93 and pissed the Jays playoff runs were taking up screen time on the 24 inch TVs popular at the time.

Thanks. If you go a little South from Yellow Knife down to Sault Ste. Marie they hate Gangsters there too. I used to live up North and went to the Sault for a basketball tournament in '93. They love their basketball but hate the gangsters. Grant knows what he is talking about. Basketball won't be popular to the Trucker-class until they market to them.