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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    I can't believe people would rather have a tie than a ghost runner. I don't care too much either way about the ghost runner but the tie would ruin the historical meaning of wins and losses. Everything works out great. Peak Blue Jays 2022-28, rivalling the historic 85-93 run. Will they finally crack the 100 win barrier? (No Jays team has ever done that) Peak team 89-59-14 What a year! I can't believe anybody would rather see great teams go 89-59-14 than see a ghost runner. Jays were 3-9 in ghost runner games last year... have to think that drove people crazy seeing the ghost runner losses... it was frustrating. I bet if Jays go 10-6 in ghost runner games this year, everybody will forget they hate it.
  2. Olerud363
    lol. I mentioned that on the vaccination thread. It would be weirdly ironic if the vaccination rule forces the Red Sox to reshuffle a bit to get vaccinated players, and ends up with them going hard and getting Freeman.
  3. Olerud363
    What Grant thinks will happen: Unvaccinated Red Sox can't bring key players to Toronto, and end up getting clobbered in TO, and Jays make the playoffs while Red Sox are out. What will really happen: Red Sox, a great organization, will address this reshuffle their roster a bit, sign a key vaccinated player and be a great team as ussual. Likely will make the playoffs easily while Toronto fights it out with Seattle for the last spot. I am no Red Sox fan, but they are a great, great organization, and we won't be beating them out because of a vaccination rule. Already talk they will be the ones to sign Freeman. Special Press Release: The Boston Red Sox have signed the vaccinated Freddie Freeman to a 6 year contract. He will in Toronto soon after all.
  4. Olerud363
    Because of personality issues or Money? If I remember his salary is 25 million or something and he isn't projected to be that valuable so has negative trade value. So if Twins don't pay you have to get them to add a prospect. Not sure there is anyway Twins pay some salary or add a prospect to get rid of him.
  5. Olerud363
    I was on fanhome or something 2001 or so. When I was a teen-ager in late early 90s I remember stats were only available once a week from Toronto Star. I kept track of them during the week in an early spread sheet program
  6. Olerud363
    Cavan is like the poster boy between old-school analytics and new-school analytics. Old school analytics he's an on base machine with power and can play multiple positions, down last year because of injury, entering age 27 season would be the exact guy you target (or avoid selling if you have him). New school analytics he's doesn't have great batted ball data and defensive metrics aren't great and has a hole in his swing or something... Will be interesting to see how it turns out. I'm rooting for him this year.
  7. Olerud363
    As an added bonus he has dynamite peripherals as a minor league reliever. Not that old, looks like 2019 he had an injury, 2020 was wiped out because of Covid, so just trying to re-establish himself in 2021.
  8. Olerud363
    Paul Beeston egging on AA to get a track team (Bonifacio and Reyes) during breaks at the Loblaws board meeting is one of the most important moments in Blue Jays history. Basically by 2015 they both knew they were getting fired for that mess, didn't give a crap about anything long term and went nuts offseason and deadline 2015 and gave us that amazing run.
  9. Olerud363
    I just think Bo is one of the best opposite-field hitters in the game. Maybe I'm wrong but didn't he lead the league in opposite field hits last year? I remember him hitting a lot of opposite-field homers and doubles. One in particular against Chad Green to win a game against the Yankees. Bo had the 4th most hard hit balls in baseball last year but was like 30th in barrels because his launch angle was down a bit. But he also used the entire field so got a lot of opposite field singles. He also had terrible plate discipline which may have something to do with the ground ball rate. So in terms of driving a pitch the other way, if he gets the right pitch Bo, I bet is as good as Vlad. It's the plate discipline that is the biggest difference, which also means some at bats the difference is Bo swing at a bad pitch and doesn't hit it hard, or gets behind in the count.
  10. Olerud363
    Coors field he can chase numbers. No shift in 2023 I bet he hits .290 25 homers, 110 rbis and -2.8 WAR while hitting his 720th homer and a bunch of other prizes, and challenging Dante Bichette and Joe Carter for the worst negative WAR while driving in 100 2022 - .267 21 83 -2 WAR 2023 (no shift) - .290 25 110 -2.8 WAR 2024 (no shift but now crazy old) - .244 15 77 RBIs -4.5 WAR (record?) late September 2024 big ceremony for retirement. 110 RBI at 44, 77 RBI at 45 that is pretty good!
  11. Olerud363
    But you can't judge on the first spring training live batting practice at bat. I believe Bo actually got the most opposite field hits in baseball last year (as well as the most hits in the AL). I bet if you crunched the pitch selection and batted ball data you'd find the main difference between Vlad and Bo is Vlad has slightly better exit velocity and lays off more tough pitches, but both are elite at hammering tough pitches the other way.
  12. Olerud363
    lol. If the rumor of a deal is true, happy to be wrong.
  13. Olerud363
    Yup. And they are still fighting for pay for 2020 for games that didn't happen during a pandemic where no fans were able to come. That's why there won't be a 2022. Past the point they can play 162... so back-pay is an issue and they still want back pay from 2020 so they won't sign on for anything in 2022 without back pay for games that didn't happen.
  14. Olerud363
    lol. One would think that Scherzer with 80 million owed to him over 2 years doesn't feel like losing 7 million a month. And he doesn't So the strike goes on another month, then Scherzer won't sign on without getting his back pay... they won't give him his back pay. Don't see how this ends. Hope I am wrong.
  15. Olerud363
    Only 29 so still time... he reached a stage in his early 20s that almost no one does... Mature hitter at 20 (low minors) in the majors at 22 having success in a pennant race. On September 22nd 2015 he gave the Jays a crushing blow that could have turned the pennant race for the Yankees. Luckily Russel (Russel! Russel! Russel! the French call was awesome) struck back the next night and got the momentum back in the Jays direction. Yes Nuckleheads, I realize he is probably so broke that he can never be fixed (though played 100+ games last year in the minors I think), but there is serious hitting talent there, not quite Nick Johnson level and more broke then even Johnson was but some serious talent was there once.
  16. Olerud363
    Next week will be big. I guess they will tweak on these offers and come up with something both sides begrudgingly agree on... Then the owners will implement a 152 game season with 10 games missed pay. Then the players will probably reject that and demand the 10 games pay, and then another week of games get cancelled. Then how does it end if the owners won't pay the players for missed games? Today might have been the end. Not to be a negative Nancy but I don't seem them agreeing on the pay for missed games, if they can't agree on the little stuff. Then how does it ever come back? I guess the Union completely broken some players break ranks in 2023 maybe. I don't know.
  17. Olerud363
    I think I said this a few months ago and people laughed at me, because I was always making fun of Cito and Murph, for 'pull dat ball' and 'be agressive'. And now it seems I'm the oppostite. However the problem was the Murph/Cito teams weren't scoring the most runs. My philosophy is always just to look at the teams scoring the most runs and what they are doing. These days it's these teams hitting .265ish with 250 homeruns and some walks. They may be hitting opposite field homeruns, but I think if a team tried to hit opposite field ground balls, it would increase team batting average but decrease total runs.
  18. Olerud363
    They are feasible adjustments. However they make you score less runs. Good offensive teams in the late 80s could hit .280 with 150 homeruns and only score 800 runs. Teams today hit .260 with 250 homeruns and score 850 runs. Let's say an entire team decided to sacrifice power, and go opp-o. Could they hit .285 as a team? Yes. Would they score more runs then if they hit .265 with power? No. What factor would ever make a team decide to score less runs? Nothing. Swinging for the fences score more runs. Going opp-o against the shift would make you score less runs. More ground ball singles, less home runs. If swinging for the fences and hitting 250 homeruns scores the most runs, teams will keep doing it.
  19. Olerud363
    No player has the ability to suddenly hit .350. All players could try to go the other way more and sacrifice power for average. Gallo could maybe hit .240 instead of .210 if he sacrificed power. If they ban the shift and Gallo hit's .240 what will Vlad and Juan Soto hit? Like all those missile ground balls and no shift... will Gallo be better off relatively if they ban the shift or will everybody's batting average go up 30 points and we'll be back at late 90s numbers.
  20. Olerud363
    It's not a rabbit hole though... it's tradition. It might only happen to every team 2 or 3 times a year, but it is the most intense high leverage situation in baseball. Runner on 3rd, tie game, less than 2 outs bottom of the 9th or extra innings. And with the 'man on second' thing it probably happened more than ever the last two years. I don't like constraining the defensive alignment in the most high leverage situation there is....
  21. Olerud363
    I think some guys, like maybe Jose Ramirez or someone could hit .350 if they sacrificed a lot of power... What would have happened to Tony Gwynn if he came up now? First 2 seasons he hit .289 and .309 with 2 homers. Do you think he would have still developed into a .350 hitter or do you think he would changed his style to hit for more power ? It's not like .350 hitters are suddenly deciding to become .270 hitters with 35 homers instead. It is like the guy that could be a .350 hitter, isn't a .350 hitter when he comes up, maybe .290, .310... then the nature of the game these days makes the .300 hitter with 5 homers work on developing power instead of batting average.
  22. Olerud363
    But to some people that is the tradition of the game... it's just 9 guys and you can do whatever the f*** you want with them. For 100 years they are were positioned where they were because that is what people thought was optimal. However in odd outlier cases you could completely position them differently because there was no rule as to where the players should be. Now we are changing 130 years of tradition just because it turned out it made sense to use weird configurations a lot more than we used to think it did.
  23. Olerud363
    Not totally sure what would happen, but more baserunners, more ground ball singles could be a return to Manny Ramirez Cleveland like numbers, guys hit like .350 with 160 rbis... What would Vlad have hit last year without shifts? How many extra ground ball singles? Or then the pitchers, like you say, refuse to give any contact, and they all go 2 innings trying to strike out the side and things are worse.
  24. Olerud363
    Yeah... year one you'll see stuff like this if they don't have a rule against it. Then maybe there is like an infield movement rule or something. No movement before the pitch or it's the equivalent of a balk or something. It could get weird.
  25. Olerud363
    You might be right, and I've heard players saying this. However I have also heard the opposite. That they could be .280 hitters with 5 home runs if they wanted, but it's better to be a .250 hitter with 20 home runs. Take Jose Ramirez and Franciso Lindor for example. In 2016 they were .300 hitters with like 12 homer power... and they've matured into .270 hitters with 30 homer power. Do you think that is because of the pitching? Or because they (and their teams) know .270 with 30 homers is better than .310 with 12 homers? Maybe I'm cherry picking a bit to fit a narrative. Ramirez did have a great season in 2017 with both average and power but on the average it seems to me, that these guys that maybe would have tried be .300 hitters in a previous generation would rather be 30 homer guys now.
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