Olerud363

I might have said that too, but that was not my original idea at all. Lots of people last year were speculating that the new ball was going to screw some Jays, especially Cavan Biggio, and remember heading into 2021 Cavan was the Jays best player in terms of fWAR from 2019 to 2020. People also thought Gurriel might take a hit. Weird thing is 2021 played like a normal year. Offense was a bit down from 2019, and seemed to pick up after they cracked down on sticky stuff. Guys like Semien were putting up video game numbers still. Now in 2022 it's like the party's over completely. Offense down and some guys, Semien, Biggio, Trevor Story, have completely fallen apart. Like those 3 combined form 2019-2021 were probably .270 .350 .500 and are now like .190 .250 .250. So you have the collapse in offense and it also disproportionately effecting certain players. Then listening to the Cleveland announcers on Satellite they claim the Indians are patient, hit to the opposite field and will take the world by storm in this new world....

It's totally odd. Usually these guys come back right away after the 10 days, and I think if vaxed they can come back after 5... so it's weird. It's been 14 days now and not even sure he's rehabbing. Maybe they are gaming it somehow to keep the roster spot open, or he was coincidentally dealing with another injury, or he does have long Covid. I didn't see his name in the Buffalo box scores this weekend.

If he doesn't have aids or severe brain damage from long covid I'd hit him second for 10 days straight, then keep him there if he has a higher on base percentage then any of the other candidates for 2nd (Bo and Espinal I guess). That way he'd get protection from Vlad, not that it would matter in terms of how they pitch him, but maybe he'd have some good vibes, get a comfort level and get going. Hitting second isn't going to happen, but maybe he gets the Tapia/Zimmer at bats in the 8th spot. Still has twice as high an on base percentage than Zimmer, and is neck and neck with Tapia even though he went 1/22 while dealing with aids... I mean long covid...

Why on earth would you think that? I know you are half kidding, but if you are looking for a medical reason for him under-performing long Covid would be the most likely. They've scanned people's brains after Covid and many have some damage. Seems like he could be suffering from brain fog and impaired reflexes from Covid, and that's why they are being vague. Not a current Covid infection but an effect from previous infection.

I'm not arguing that Guerrero is struggling, others kind of were implying he was, and it was because Teo wasn't there. As you point out neither Guerrero or Soto are hitting that bad, the new offensive environment is so wack that their OPS+ is still 150-160. Hell Matt Chapman's was still 100 until yesterday. My point was that 'protection' doesn't matter. Soto perfect example. He's had a healthy and a productive Josh Bell behind him, who is at least equal and probably better than Teo. Soto still struggling with respect to his own standards. As to the chase rate. If there is a slight problem with Guerrero it's chase rate, and to get back to 2021 level he needs to fix that, independent of who is back there, and just take his walks if he doesn't get a pitch to hit.

I don't disagree that he's pressing, just disagree that Teo coming back is going to change anything. Teo had some babip luck in 2021, that combined with the new ball, and some rust, makes it quite likely Teo is going to struggle himself. Tough games this week, and if these guys are prone to 'pressing' it's going to be not a fun 7 days. Guys are human, but it would be nice to see them have a consistent approach. Supposedly Jays have some high performance team that's suppose to help them have a consistent approach no matter which way the winds blowing. Hopefully they are on the job here.

I don't fault anyone for wanting Teo back, it's just the nonsense about Teo helping Vlad that gets me going. I just looked it up on fangraphs and Vlad's out of zone swing rate is 38% this year, a career high. If Vlad is going to be a great as hitter as he could be he can't do that for long periods of time. To put it in perspective Juan Soto's out of zone swing rate is consistently 20%.

Hilarious. In 1999 Bichette hit like .295 .350 .550 and it was a league average hitter when factoring in Colorado Matt Chapman (before today's awful fiasco) was .204 .280 .400 or so and a league average hitter. Also with defense Chapman was like 4 or 5 WAR along ahead of Bichette. Chapman needs to time travel to late 90s and play in late 90s Colorado (which was rocketball, way more than humidor Colorado is)

Also great to see Hernandez finally back. His protection is amazing. Vladdy, fully protected went 2/8 so far, only singles, still swinging at some bad pitches here and there... still looks to be 'pressing'. Rest of team looked awful despite Hernandez's calming presence. 2 games too small a sample size for Teo the protector to show his impact? Will the protector do his work in NY and Tampa? Will the jays be relaxed and actually win some of these? Or is 'protection' god-damn phony ******** and Jays will score 8 runs the next 5 games despite the protector being back?

That the bats suck and there was no hope? I probably said that but that was after 18 games and this is 30 with deeper slumps. After 30 games it's becoming significant.

Are the Blue Jays swinging more or less than last year? Last two games have been a nightmare. Should the Blue Jays as at team be swinging more or less than they are this year? Last two games the last 7 or 8 innings of each seemed to be a nightmare of swinging too much...

Yeah... but a 40-20 run in the last 60 isn't going to happen every year. Not sure bats will wake up. Seems like this team isn't suited for the new offesnive environment.

Wish I had your optimism. This reminds me of 1988 (my first season watching regularly). Something changed with the ball as compared to 86/87 and Moseby/Bell/Barfield were done, Jays had to retool. Ended well but 88 was a write off. Feels like it will be a weird year figuring out who can and cannot handle the new environment, and early returns are Jays can't handle it, and will need to retool a bit.

He's doing his part hitting OK in a tough offensive environment. Though projects to be more of a 4 WAR player than a 7 WAR this year. More of a Matt Olson then the next Pujols... only 1 month so that can change. Overall hugely disappointing offense. Not sure why people thought Teo would change things. Why would Teo be able to hit the dead ball when everyone else on the Blue Jays struggles with it? Hilariously the pitching is even worse but this is hidden by the dead ball.

Are the r values from 2014 really significant with only 30 teams. What are the p values?

If you correlate swinging with wins, you are also correlating it with defense, because maybe guys who swing a lot are also fast and good defenders. You also have more noise in the win total than the run total.

In 1988, the lowest homerun environment I remember, the Sox, and the As had the best offense. Both walked a lot. Not sure how much they swung. In 2014 the best offenses were Detroit, Toronto, Twins, As, Angels. Did those teams swing a lot? The As had a bunch of moneyball crap. Still walked a lot. Even in 2014. I guess the As didn't know what they were doing. As scored, walked, probably didn't swing much... had a 99 win expected win loss in 2014. And they got eliminated by the swinging Royals, 84 win expected won/loss in a wild card game.

The 2014 Royals had a bad offense. Why would anyone care whether swinging is correlated to wins? Need to know how it's correlated to scoring runs.

Not sure it's the smart move to fight this. Jays offense will regress back to true talent level and they will also face easier competition. All of a sudden they will look like one of the best offenses in the league and it will correlate with Teo coming back... Correlation is not Causation, but that's going be hard to argue on this board.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Vlad is doing anything wrong at all. I don't even think he is pressing. Just saying it doesn't matter if Teo is behind him or not. The theory that it does relies on the following logic 1. Tapia hit cleanup once and this freaked Vlad out and made him press 2. Most of the time it's Lourdes behind him, last year with Teo out it was Rowdy, Vlad presses with Lourdes back there but not Rowdy? 3. Chapman is ussually 5th, last year at this time it was often Biggio or a (at the time) struggling a bit Semien. None of it makes any sense. What you could argue is the new offensive levels have everybody pressing a bit, because every game is now 3-2. That may be true. However Teo won't be immune to this new reality and will also struggle a bit compared to last year, and won't change how anybody else gets pitched to... and shouldn't change whether they press or not. That being said probably when Teo comes back the whole team will go on a run, because it was bound to happen, and because they are playing weaker competition, and then everyone will say 'told you Teo would make a difference'. Laika knows this, but he's very savey in a corporate way. He knows the protection thing is ********, but he can get some points pretending it's true, because the Jays will improve their offense in the near future and that will randomly coincide with Teo coming back.

Tapia has had one game at clean up, 3 at 5. Last year Biggio had 10 games at 5. Most of the time this year Vlad looks back and see's Matt Chapman or Lourdes on deck when Teo is out. Last year when Teo was out he looked back and saw a .150 hitting Rowdy Tellez and then Biggio or Lourdes or a .230 (at the time) Semien... There is zero difference between what Vlad had behind him games 10-25 last year with Teo out, as compared to this year.

By good state of mind I mean, relaxed, sharp, prepared for the at bat, not trying to do too much. If you are pressing, you are not in a good state of mind.

Well, Laika's been in a slump lately. I think it's lack of intelligent posters, posting behind him. He's the type of guy who presses when he's the only good poster in a thread.

OK. So last year Teo was injured around the same time. Actually he had the Covid-19 virus. Vlad had combinations of struggling Rowdy Tellez, Joe Panic, Cavan Biggio, and (at the time) a struggling Semien behind him. I mean, OK. Maybe those guys are better than what he has now, but he was hitting great while Hernandez was gone. So Vlad in April 2021 is like 'OK... I got Rowdy hitting .150 behind me... he's struggling, but he's a big boy, hit 20 bombs in 2019. Big guy, it's OK, and Cavan's back there too' And now he's like 'f***. Gurriel, Chapman, Tapia. f***. I wish I had Joe Panik back. I'm going to swing at everything and hope I knock one of the outside pitches out to right like Bo does'

Well, there is zero chance they are going to pitch Vlad any differently depending on whos behind him. They've got stats on how Vlad hits every pitch type and location and are going to be using that book. Perhaps your point is that even though they pitch Vlad the same, Vlad will be more relaxed with Teo there, and have a better approach, thus better results. If the latter is true that speaks really poorly of the Jays organization. Shouldn't he be mentally prepared for every at bat no matter who is behind him? If what you are saying is true, guys can have a 'good' state of mind, and a bad state of mind, and something as simple as who else is in the lineup will change their approach. However in that case shouldn't the organization identify this, and work with them to make sure they are always in a great state of mind?