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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    I think it's reasonable to ask sort of dumb questions and get the smarter people thinking. Like if I was Rogers I'd be like "How come this Vlad guy had .600 slugging last year and is .400 this year. Why'd he hit a groundball with the bases loaded and the Goldie guy got it in the air no problem" And they'd be like 'Well in the long run Goldie hits grounders too... and it's a long season... and... well there is a bit of truth in what you say. Vladdy's grounder rate is higher then we'd like this year. We should get the swing mechanic guys to take a closer look."
  2. Olerud363
    Just saying 'on average' the group is at their peak. Their combined numbers should peak this year. Some day Bo will be 27 and Vlad 26, but Teoscar will be 32 then... this year those 6 theoretically should have their best WAR. I may be cherry picking for my narrative by not including Espinal and Jansen... but I didn't really have those guys penciled as core pieces coming into the season. Probably the best thing to do is not get too fancy, include all the players including Springer, Espinal and Jansen and measure underperformance. So the position players probably were projected for 30 WAR and are on pace for 15.
  3. Olerud363
    Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble. (I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).
  4. Olerud363
    Choosing Borucki is one factor. The way Vlad and Goldschmidt approached their at bats with the bases loaded is another. Goldschmidt and Vlad's current swing mechanics are another factor. Goldschmidt took some pitches and wasn't afraid to be behind in the count. Goldschmidt isn't pounding balls into the dirt right now. Of course Vlad is a more talented hitter (probably) and much more inexperienced but still... the job of the coaching staff is to have these players prepared and performing at their best. I don't see the decision to put Borucki in to be any more or less important than the overall coaching and preparation of the hitters. The latter factor was just as important as the former in this game.
  5. Olerud363
    They lost this game because Goldschmidt's ground ball rate is 35% and Vlad's 55%. That was the bigger issue.
  6. Olerud363
    Yeah. He needs to really be selective and if it leads to more ks looking so be it. If he's going to be a .260 hitter he might as well strike out 150 times and take a look at things... keep him out of more double plays too.
  7. Olerud363
    Vlad and his agent probably wouldn't go for that at this point. Him and his agent will still view him as a mega-star. I bet a deal doesn't get done until after next year, when he has more of a track record so each side can feel comfortable they know what he is.
  8. Olerud363
    Never said he would. I said he will end up being more of a Matt Olson then an Albert Pujols... Which brings the price of a long term contract way down.
  9. Olerud363
    Gallo's minor league numbers are probably the closest I can see to Orelvis. Gallo at age 20 spent half the season in A+ where he dominated, then the second half in aa... his aa numbers were very similar to Orelvis's. Gallo .250 .370 .590 approximate slash line in minors. Assuming Orelvis picks it up a bit with the walks as he learns the high minors that's probably where he ends up.
  10. Olerud363
    It would be an unusual challenge trade but it would be great to turn Moreno into a top 20 left handed hitting outfield prospect. Is there a modern day equivalent of John Olerud? Former batting champion, midway in between his two .350 seasons hitting a 'disappointing' .295 .390 .480 or so, that would be available for Ross Stripling? That is literally what happened to Olerud.
  11. Olerud363
    I remember the second game of the mid August double header against the Red Sox. Verdugo hit a high fly ball to center, looked deep but playable and it some how went 415 1 foot over the fence. In the bottom of the 7th Vlad hammered a ball, looked gone and it went 410 caught at the top of the wall. That game haunted me as much as the Semien throw in the dirt against Detroit. I wander if Vlad got a dead ball and Verdugo a lively one. How hard would it be for smart teams to try and get the deadballs in play when they are pitching? Just slip one to the pitcher warming up... or is the umpire in complete control there making sure no funny business is happening?
  12. Olerud363
    I doubt it. Jorge Solar got 3 years 36 million. Better traditional numbers than Hernandez in his big season, but about the same in advanced stats, then fell off. People were predicting 5 100 for Hernandez, however he'll be lucky to get Solar's contract if he doesn't perform the next year and a half. People had no idea what to put Guerrero at, but were thinking 10 350 million, or maybe 12 400. However his career numbers are the same as Matt Olson's First, Jays aren't going to sign him to a mega contract at the end of this year, if he's had 4 years, 3 of them mediocre, no one will know what to peg his value at. If he ends up being a Matt Olson type, he'll get Matt Olson money... 150 million or something, not 400. So yes, if these guys keep imploding they will cost themselves hundreds of millions. Good news is the slow starts might have already shaved off significant money for 2023 arb values. They can use it to sign others and hope for bounce backs.
  13. Olerud363
    Diamond Backs - who is their Catcher? They have a lot of left handed hitters some young? Could you and would you trade Moreno for Alek Thomas or Corbin Carrol and call up the latter (Thomas is already up) ? Would you try to get Varsho, Peralto, or Pavin Smith somehow? Could you make a fair trade where the Jays give up a top prospect, but get Corbin or Thomas, and also add in other pieces and get one of the other lefty outfielders? Is there a way the diamond backs can help us get 2 left handers hitters and we can help them?
  14. Olerud363
    They seem to be trying to be too clever with Tapia. If there are no other choices they should have just mixed Biggio in there too and split the plate appearances between them until one ran with the job, or they acquired something better. Seems like they over-scouted/data-crunched this thinking Biggio is worse than his standard stats and Tapia better.
  15. Olerud363
    What about freaking Biggio? The algorithm should have been give Kirk and Biggio most of the at bats that have gone to Tapia. Then adjust June 1st if needed. Give the guys who have potential to get on base the chance to fail. I think they got too fancy with Biggio, and the Keith Law 'can't hit the fastball' crap. They predicted failure and replaced him with a player who also is a failure. They should have let Biggio play... and if he failed deal with it. Predicting Biggio's failure and at the same time predicting success for Tapia was a terrible play.
  16. Olerud363
    As we all know it is never to soon to think about long term contracts... we have a young core that we need to keep together so here are the offers I would make Guerrero - A big guy with one good season. Is he a .780 OPS ground ball machine? Or the all-star we saw for one year? Offer him 10 years 100 million. Fair for both sides. We take the risk that he is a 0 WAR ground ball monster and the 100 million is a waste, he gets guaranteed money. Bichette - a short stop with D-problems and chase problems but some upside as we have seen at times. Offer him 10 years 100 million. Again risk on both sides. Hernandez, Gurriel, - chasers with good seasons mixed with horrible ones - 2 years 8 million for both... gives them some money, and time to hit free agency soon enough if they re-establish themselves. Kirk - 7 years, 20 million - fair for a no power fat catcher... OK. You think I am kidding but I am not. If these guys continue down this road they lose hundreds of millions in career earnings. If the hitting coach can't inspire them maybe someone should tell them the going rates for 0-2 WAR players?
  17. Olerud363
    Seems like there should be a path to reconfigure the talent. Even at this point. Turn Gurriel, Moreno, Orelvis into 2 good young left handed hitters with control. If you got on the computer and the trade calculator and designed trades of equal value with those 3 going one way and left handed hitters coming back couldn't you come up with something?
  18. Olerud363
    Cito Gaston. Pull dat ball. The strategic decisions aren't the issue... it's hitting philosophy. Who the hell knows what the right hitting advice is. My guess is they'll finally figure out when they get to Camden yards And hit a bunch of 110 mph 400 foot outs to the new left field.
  19. Olerud363
    lol. Yeah. I was surprised too. He has also said the Jays have a lot of big strong guys so they should be OK in the long run.
  20. Olerud363
    Same could be said about anyone. Vernon Wells was signed to a mega-contract after his second good year, but with 2 sub-par ones in between. Alex Rios was signed after a big year, then released during a down one. Both of which were deceptive. Adam Lind looked like the next Don Mattingly for 1 year... Aaron Hill like the next Ryne Sandberg for a year. Pat Tabler said something smart the other day. He doesn't trust stats unless they do it twice in a row. Good news is, barring undisclosed injuries or team-wide mental breakdown there is zero statistical possibility they are as bad as they've been so far. Best guess is guys will return to their career averages, which would at least be an improvement over what we've seen so far. I no longer really believe the 2021 numbers were indicative of their true talent, but neither do I believe the 2022 numbers... career averages normalized to the current offensive is a good guess going forward.
  21. Olerud363
    Would you rather be the Red Sox right now or the Blue Jays? Red Sox are 3 behind, but all their key players look to be OK, and are well positioned for a run. Jays have dynamite pitching but their core of position players is a mess... Red Sox you can be comfortable the core players will perform moving forward and the team will have a good run the rest of the way. Jays you think the hitter's will rebound... but starting to feel legit concern, and the starting pitching can't be this good the whole way.
  22. Olerud363
    I totally agree with that too. Different s***, same results. But a team that scores a lot and is blowing big leads has an obvious path to solve their issue... get some bullpen arms which can be acquired for mid level prospects. What is the fix here? Two good left handed bats? How?
  23. Olerud363
    Red Sox sweep Seattle - 3 games out of a playoff spot. Their offense looks amazing all of a sudden... This time next week they will probably hold the last AL wild card spot. Looks like another year where Rays, Sox and Yankees make the playoffs. Devers and Bogaerts are having MVP seasons, Martinez back at career averages and Story looks to have recovered. Easy to supplement the couple of week spots in the line up (like Dalbach I think). In great shape.
  24. Olerud363
    Stupid Narrative. They played about the same all season, except for a couple of weeks late August where they didn't hit. The September "run" just had some of those high scoring games go the Jays way, I remember the Oakland series, the Baltimore series they just lucked out with a hit at the right time... Last year was completely different with dumb-ass losses and bullpen woes, and then crazy comeback wins, but bats and starters looked about the same all year. This is different s***, a 550 run scoring team, with several guys potentially losing a few hundred million of career earnings by redefining their career arc. You think I'm kidding? Sure they won't be as bad as they have been... but after this year can you see Vlad and Bo being the 350 million dollar guys they looked like before the season? Can you see Teoscar being a 125 million guy?
  25. Olerud363
    Chapman is just as good a career hitter as Teoscar. They are very close lifetime. In fact Chapman is a bit better. overall, Teoscar better Both have flaws. Teoscar has been better in 2020/21 but it's just as possible Chapman is the one who rebounds and has a good year. It's possible they both suck, it's possible they both turn it around. Tapia and Collins are in a different class. Guys who have never done much and are below average hitters.
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