Olerud363

2021 was a fluke, but in 2022 and 23 they look like a legit 90 win team by run differential. Their offence looks terrible because they hit .230 but they play in a terrible hitters park, and have been top 3 in walks last 2 years so it works out to be an average hitting team and good pitching team. I don't know much about Miller and Woo so I am sure "somebody" (cough) could come up with an argument that Miller and Woo are both terrible 4.50 ERA pitchers, Julio Rodriquez is the worst ever super star, Cal Rayleigh is the worst clean up hitter ever and Seattle is really a true talent 75 win team that will crash soon enough.

Maybe he hasn't recovered from the Seattle series. Seattle has emerged as the top wild card chaser with great starting pitching and an average offense (that looks worse because of the park) and that probably has Grant a bit upset.

You didn't address anything in your "Gibson is the best of the 10 million dollar guys", instead you basically proved the Elias is a great GM viewpoint. Elias is a damn smart guy and while most of the 10 million guys aren't doing much, Elias and his team picked the best one. How is that evidence that Elias isn't a great GM? So I guess the point is Jays development team sucks, they failed to really develop Orelvis Martinez into a top 10 prospect, failed to do a good job with their top 5 pick (Austin Martin who Orioles passed on), have struggled to get the best hitting prospect ever to be above replacement, have struggled to get anything out of 2nd level prospects like Biggio and Espinal, have struggled to get consistent performance out of a couple of bigger guys (Manoah and Kirk), have struggled to get a once top 20 pitching prospect healthy or performing (Pearson) etc. etc. Orioles on the other hand, have been lights out drafting and developing not only their top 5 picks, but the late 1st round/compensation round picks like Gunnar Henderson. Thus the Orioles can afford to take risks like signing a 10 million dollar guy because they have so many other young players with 6 or 7 years of control left and a competitive window that extends the better part of a decade, but the Jays need to sign Bassitt for 60 million, because their window is already practically over and they have to pay through the roof for guaranteed performance from their 4th starter at a last ditch effort for a playoff win, while Orioles are sitting pretty with their very best prospect not called up yet. Orioles Suck! Elias Sucks! Good Job Jays!

Springer got a concussion on that last sad play against Seattle, gotta wonder if that explains his season.

I agree with you that it's not as simple as the hitting coach just giving stupid advice to the entire team, on the other hand that could be part of the larger problem which is simply Toronto hitting coach's and strategist being behind the curve. Hitting coach (and team) needs to also be psychiatrist and persuasion expert, they need to get guys who may not be super-coachable to buy in, and stick with things even if they don't work at first.

That's not true. You replaced 30 year old Teo (116 wRC+ lifetime) with a 26 year old with 100 wRC+ lifetime who at age 25 was exactly the hitter Teo was at 25. It would be unrealistic to expect Varsho to make the same type of improvements Teo did at age 27, but it would be reasonable to expect him to be a bit better entering 26-29. So you probably replaced a 120 projection with a 105 and got a 72. Varsho is way below projections as is Vlad, Kirk, Springer, Biggio, Espinal.

Right. That's why this is an interesting debate. Obviously in the history of baseball there are some guys who have turned it around, even in their late 20s, based on improved hitting mechanics and timing. So whos to say the right hitting coach couldn't unlock more in Guerrero and other players? On the other hand maybe it is more up to the player himself, to discover what works. Interesting that Bautista/EE both did not discover the right approach until age 29 -- A full 5 years older than Guerrero is now.

Can't sell when they were 2 up on a playoff spot obviously. However if this year is destined to end with a wimper I kind of wish the Jays were more like where the Angels are and sold into a seller market. It would suck if this mediocre team happened to be at a deceptive 'high' point August first but crashes a week into August. I could easilly see them getting swept by the Red Sox and then the Red Sox schedule is a joke, so 1 week from now their playoff odds are like 15%.

I partly agree with you but I guess it might be instructive to try and understand what happened to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacian and then work from there. Both as hitters were very similar to bad Guerrero, the 2022 version. Then something happened that changed their 15-20 homer power to 40 homer power. So what was it? A random hitting tip? A brilliant hitting tip from Cito Gaston? Something they read? Pharmaceutical help? The man in white? I think the 'official' story involves hitting mechanics and Cito (or someone else) simply unlocking the talent by working out timing and hitting mechanics. So if the 'official' story is true shouldn't Guerrero (and maybe a couple of others), who is starting from a better talent base also be helped with mechanical adjustments? And shouldn't this be job number one of the hitting coach?

The Red Sox are getting the last playoff spot no doubt in my mind. The decision to get Yoshida was a massive move vs getting Varsho. Going to my Red Sox friends house tonight, luckily he is modest so won't gloat, but Yoshida is just sudh a loved player already, and they are really confident and excited about this year. Every game brings them joy and happiness. Cassis, Yoshida, Duran, Devers, Verdugo, just nice hitters, win or lose are enjoyable to watch, the Red Sox product is so much better than the Jays this year.

Just luck, not game planning or anything. Orioles are a s*** bag organization who had a joke trade deadline. Flaherty.... Not gonna lie, guys gonna pitch a 1 hit shut out, but he's a joke, Orioles are going to win the division, they're a joke. Don't worry next team we play is a joke too.

Yeah, you have to decide to swing before the pitch breaks so need to determine what it is early as possible. Guys like Soto recognize pitches a fraction of a second earlier than Vlad, thus take more pitches. I honestly don't want to be a 'coach' or anything, it just doesn't look like he recognizes pitches at an elite level. That could explain pull rate to. Part of 'pull dat ball' is recognizing the pitch early, getting started early.

I said this in the game thread but will put here simply because when the rise and fall of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is studied by baseball historians this thread will be a key document. This thread, while annoying to many, has many hard truths (thus why it is so annoying, the truth hurts). Forget mechanics, maturity, mental state, wrist injury, spray angle and launch angle the hard truth is this... Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not have elite pitch recognition thus will never be an elite player on a consistent basis. This should be obvious watching him compared to Soto in the San Diego series. If not obvious then it should be obvious watching a couple of at bats this series. Two times he has gotten totally fooled by breaking stuff a foot outside and almost in the dirt. Most players, even good players get fooled like this once and a while. But guys with elite pitch recognition, Soto, Bonds, Judge don't get fooled like this I don't think. Even Judge who strikes out a lot is mostly (like Belt actually) striking out by taking strikes he doesn't like and humongous rips at good pitches. Elite hitters don't swing at some of the crap Vlad does. (good hitters/good players do and Vlad is (I guess) a 'good' hitter, for a hitter, but not an elite hitter, which he needs to be given his defense and base running).

After Jays started having success in 2020 other teams advanced scouts, scouted them to hell, the pitchers adjusted and Jays have not adjusted back, or maybe can't adjust back... Especially with runners in scoring position they are pitched differently then 2020 and 2021 and can't adjust. Forget mechanics, maturity, mental state, wrist injury, spray angle and launch angle the hard truth is this... Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not have elite pitch recognition thus will never be an elite player on a consistent basis. This should be obvious watching him compared to Soto in the San Diego series. If not obvious then it should be obvious watching a couple of at bats this series. Two times he has gotten totally fooled by breaking stuff a foot outside and almost in the dirt. Most players, even good players get fooled like this once and a while. But guys with elite pitch recognition, Soto, Bonds, Judge don't get fooled like this I don't think. Even Judge who strikes out a lot is mostly (like Belt actually) striking out by taking strikes he doesn't like and humongous rips at good pitches. Elite hitters don't swing at some of the crap Vlad does. (good hitters/good players do and Vlad is (I guess) a 'good' hitter, for a hitter, but not a good hitter for a first basemen).

O'hearn is probably a slightly better hitter then he has shown at times. Recent minor league numbers are insane. Orioles are a good organization, good organizations find guys like this by a combination of real scouting and stats scouting.

Contagion? That was bird flu I believe I do not think there was a bat in that movie but ... was there?

When I've dived into the stats a bit I haven't found Vlad's pull rate and center rate to be crazy bad or anything. However.... His ground ball rate is sort of high, and his pull rate a bit lower than you'd like... but as you mention where it really could get crazy bad is when you separate it into spray and angle, so if a lot of the pulled hits are grounders, and a huge number of the fly balls are center then that kind of explains everything.,

Gibson and Basitt are pretty close in fWAR but their lifetime ERA is 1 run apart. Bassitt's k rate is a bit higher. Pretty big difference in ERA for equivalent fWAR. There is like a meme that goes around that show the low IQ guys and the high IQ guys reach the same conclusion but the middle IQ guy (midwit) outsmarts himself and makes the wrong conclusion, however Bassitt vs Gibson might be the opposite. Low IQ - Bassitt ERA better, Bassitt better. Mid IQ - Browses fangraphs, fWAR the same, Bassitt = Gibson High IQ - Goes deeper than fWAR, Bassitt better. So the high IQ guys might look deeper into metrics and know the flaws in fWAR and choose Bassitt... except if Bassit = 60 million and Gibson = 10 million high IQ then should choose Gibson.

Not full time. Pair him with Espinal like the Orioles are doing with Gunnar Henderson and Urias.... Also how do you know Barger will be bad at short stop? Bo wasn't great (for a short stop), do you really know Barger is worse?

I mention Westburg and Schneider together because stats scouting they are super similar. Same age, similar lifetime stats, big age 24, Westburg a bit better life time, Schneider better at age 24. Different paths to age 24 though. Westburg college and high first rounder, Schneider seems to have been a high school pick but stuck at 50 games a year until age 23. lol. Lukes completely different guy. Horrible through age 24 then some better seasons at age 27 and 28, but even his age 27 was nothing special. A .280 with 11 homers, .780 OPS kind of season, compared to Schneider being an almost 1.000 OPS guy at age 24.

Maybe their internal projections show that a 30 year old with a 24-150 bb/k isn't going to add too much anyway... Depending on who Teo's replacement is could improve the team by getting rid of him anyway. The only reason Teo is keeping his WAR above replacement is his defense is less negative than other years.. who knows if that is real. Mariners have watched him up close and may be trading him to improve the 2023 team.

Addison Barger and Espinal with Davis Schneider replacing Espinal's time at second. Please do not make some stupid trade. lol. Also this probably destroys any chance of getting rid of Atkins, as the Bo injury will be the excuse, one injury destroys this year and next. Atkins back with more crap moves.

Totally agree. People have looked at this and run-differential predicts performance in the future, better than record.

He doesn't hate Bo, he is just irrationally attached to Vlad and is sad that Vlad is a replacement player now so is cherry picking worse than Grant. Basically according to fangraphs Vlad is a 131 wRC+ and Bo 129 wRC+ career. Vlad is slightly better as a hitter but not much. However Bo is better at everything else. Bo is a slightly positive defender (not a great short stop) but Vlad is (according to fangraphs) one of the worst defensive players in the game. He's sad that there is a realistic path to Vlad getting released (if Vlad played as he is now for 8 more months he would be released winter 2025 because his 25 million dollar plus salary is too much for a replacement player). Instead of just saying 'Vlad will not continue to be a replacement player rest of 2023 and 2024', which is a fair prediction, he's perversely cherry picking the past and trying to show he isn't a replacement player 2023 (which is unfair, he is worse than Noda and Tristan Casas). So you can't just throw Barger or Martinez in for Bo... Bo is a 5 WAR guy, and they might be 1 WAR right now. You could throw Tristan Casas or Ryan Noda in for 2023 Vlad (they are 1 WAR guys while Vlad is 0.4 WAR).

You are totally right that the first four months of this year they have been lucky. The reason I am so impressed with the Orioles is not because of the record this year (which is a bit lucky) but the decisions the Orioles make, hitting every high round draft pick, developing a bullpen, incredible prospect development, using prospects to fill holes instead of old guys, playing Covid perfect, savy free agent signings. The board has been stubborn about this and have not given Orioles credit for things like signing Adam Frazier and Gibson. Frazier's defense is down on fangraphs this year but otherwise he has a nice track record. Gibson is like really close to Bassit fWAR wise, this year and career. Why is Bassett worth 60 million and Gibson 10? They are not that far apart and Orioles recognized it. Orioles have gotten Westberg in there while Jays have let Davis Schneider put up a 1.000 OPS+ in the minors. Orioles are getting their prospects feet wet while contending, Orioles have all players under 30 (except Gibson and Frazier who have minimal financial commitment). Orioles rules are just old school Bill James, Don't overspend on players over 30, players peak at 27, on base percentage, just by luck some players are underrated (just scan for players who's fWAR is above traditional stats), use prospects to fill holes, a bullpen can be built for nothing, don't bother with stupid moves at the deadline, aim to contend for a decade not a year. And don't bother winning 75 games during COVID years...