Olerud363

Case in point 1-0 win over Yankees with Gray-Rod looking pretty good... run-differential so far is based on 7 ERA Gray-Rod. Gray-Rods minor league numbers, prospect ranking, and stuff indicate his performance last 2 months has a great chance of being way better.

Orioles being serious World Series contenders is based on their almost MLB ready prospect base contributing in the last 2 months, and them using some of their payroll space and trading some of their 5-15 ranked prospects for help, not on their current run differential.

This is like saying the entire system of international signings is just random and guys are getting 4 million for no reason and it means nothing. What is wrong with you guys? You are saying that players like Bonilla who are ranked as a top 5 prospect in the class and are given 4 million are all of a sudden to be evaluated based a few weeks of DSL at bats. We aren't talking about 21 year olds in AA. For anyone drafted or signed in the last year, and who has only a few weeks of Rookie ball, and is under 19 the signing bonus is important.

Until there are a couple of years of stats and further scouting the bonuses are probably relevant as presumably they were based on a lot of scouting and there isn't enough info to over-ride them. Like what is more important 6 weeks of rookie ball/DSL stats or draft/international signee ranking (which in turn would determine the bonus)? That being said Vargas is putting up really good numbers and if he is already ranked 11th in their system that seems to be an extremely risky guy to trade for a reliever.

Note - two of the guys I mention Yordan and Fernando Tatis JR. were traded at 17, though I can't remember if they were top international signings, or really just random guys that surprised.

Was one of the young guys the Marlins sent a multi million dollar top 5 of class international signing? If so crazy to trade a guy like that for a 38 year old reliever. Trading Enmanuel Bonilla at 17 is like trading Vladimir Guerrero JR, Fernando Tatis JR, Yordan Alvarez, Orelvis Martinez at 17. Admittedly missing from the list is probably a lot of other top international guys at 17 that I never heard of because they busted. What I mean is because of signing bonus and rank Emanuel Bonilla is way above other random teenagers, huge risk to trade. Trade some random teenager yeah, not your top international signing though.

Whoever ran the team in 2018 before Mike Elias.

It depends if it is short or long term money. Look at the question the other way. What amount would you increase the 2023 payroll by to add 1.5 projected wins? Wouldn't do it at all, 1 million? 10 million? If Rogers is saying they wouldn't spend any 2023 money to add 2023 wins that's dumb. I agree it's fine not to add any longer term payroll.

When Kent was traded he wasn't a highly ranked prospect. Jays got Cone (twice) and Ricky Henderson from 92 to 95 without even talking about Delgado. And even Dominique Brown was off limits in the Halladay discussion. Holliday has a good chance of contributing playoff wins for the next 10 years, Orioles are playing for a long run, and have absolutely no pressure on them to win this year.

It has never worked like that. I remember when Jays had Delgado, Green, Gonzelas, they acquired Ricky Henderson in his prime having his second best season (though he would slump for Toronto), and David Cone coming off the Cy young without touching their top 3. No one is giving up the best prospect in a generation for 2 months of Ohtani.

Don't the latest lists have the Orioles top 9 prospects ahead of the Jays top prospect? Moreno - we want your 1st, 5th and 10th overall prospect - Orioles - lol. No. We can give you our 5th, 8th and 9th which are all still top 100 by Baseball America. Moreno - No. We want your top prospect. (on to Jays) Moreno - We want your 1, 5 and 10 prospects. Jays - ummm... OK but our top guy is a left handed pitcher and you won't be allowed to do a physical and to be honest he's only 120 on the Baseball America list. Moreno - he's your top prospect deal is done, we only are trading Ohtani for a team's top prospect.

This tweet is terrible if true. Isn't revenue really good? Isn't this exactly the team that should be throwing money at problems? High revenue team that is on the bubble. Like this is the one type of team that (if the option presented itself) should throw short term money at problems. a) Arguably Atkins should not be allowed to trade any top 15 prospects. So if ownership is smart enough to have lost faith in Atkins and don't want him making any long term moves that is fine. However Atkins should be allowed to make moves involving mediocre prospects that mostly involve losing little long term player value and mostly just take on money.

They are young, haven't called up most of their prospects yet so are playing for the mythical sustainable winner, if they make a move I am betting it will be for players with control. They are smart enough to know the playoffs are random and will play for the next 5 shots at it, not just this one. In fact they are playing for a really long run, 10 shots at it so at some point they may start thinking of 40 man roster issues and make moves with their older prospects, perhaps for a combination of players that can help now and really young prospects. Mike Elias is the greatest front office executive of all time, his moves will shock you in their brilliance, in fact forget 10 year run, Elias is playing for a 20 year 2000 win run which will change the nature of his game (the run will be continued by his apprentice if Elias leaves for the Yankees or Red Sox or something).

The guys that have nailed every top 5 draft pack, correctly going against industry rankings and passing on Jones and Martin are morons? Also, Angelos is 94 and has nothing to do with running the team anymore. His son (also an Angelos admittedly) runs things now, and all signs are he is a very bright guy.

I'm rarely in on the fire-the-manager threads (though I'm all-in on 'release Vlad' threads ironically)... Reason in Manager doesn't have that much effect on the outcomes. Like the entire stupid 'Charlie bunted at the wrong time' and changed the win probabilities by nothing. The bullpen use seems different because of the issue of downstream effects, like did one move (pulling Kikuchi) early led to 2 losses? Replacing 2 Kikuchi innings with a Richards and Swanson inning is on the surface not much, but it was 1 Kikuchi inning replaced by a tired Swanson, then a fresh Swanson (Saturday) inning replaced by tired Garcia, then the overall effect of pitching these relievers 75 games instead of 50. I've probably argued the other side (pitchers should be pulled early) because the '3rd time through the order' stats indicate that is true. I probably have to rethink that because I wasn't considering the 'next day' effect on Bullpen and cumulative season effect.. I guess need stats on Reliever fatigue.

I think traditionally these silly rules, closer only in for save situations, best 3 relievers only in tie games or protecting leads worked because they prevented over-use. Could do it in a more sophisticated way just with some kind of game leverage and win probability formulas on the ipad or something. Problem is when closers are coming into tie games regularly and setup man is coming in down a run, they get gased. I remember on Canada day when Swanson came in trailing 7-6 I told my wife that they just lost tomorrow's game too there... and I was being a bit over-the-top as I sometimes am, but turned out 100% correct in that case as a gased Swanson gave up a 4-2 lead in the 7th the next day. No doubt in my mind something similar will happen today. Swanson and Romano are probably not even available now, and Richards and Garcia have been used a lot lately. And yesterday there wasn't even a reason to over-use relievers with Kikuchi at 75 pitches.

Mariners sweep set-up by pulling Kikuchi early. Thanks Schneider... Tonight -- more than likely Gaussman needs to be pulled after 6.0 in a close game, so the second class relievers will have to be used, they'll blow it Jays lose 3-2 again Tomorrow -- Manoah - gives up his usual 3 or 4 in the first or second inning, but with Pearson and Jackson used Saturday they'll either have to let Manoah go longer, or kill the bullpen for the Dodgers series. f***. Hope they realize they losing 22-4 is the right move Sunday. Let Manoah get creamed and don't use any relievers except Luplow.

Wow. That was the worst managed game I've seen in a long time. I agree with the 'pull the pitcher early' move in the right context, on a day when the key bullpen guys are rested or with an offday to follow. So it often makes sense in the playoffs, or the day after a 12-0 win or loss or something, or day before an off day. The stats totally back-up the move. This was an insanely terrible move given Swanson and Romano were used yesterday, and there is no off day for a week. Especially with Swanson already complaining he was fatigued. So now they've gone heavy on the high leverage guys 2 days in a row, with 5 tough games coming up. Insane. Fire-able offense. The Espinal and pinch run for belt moves were connected, since Espinal replaced Biggio, and Vlad was DHing, so no 1b men if Belt is out of the game. Maybe Merrifield could play first though?

Barger, Horwitz, Scheider, Martinez, Roden and Jiminez are a nice pool of players to partially replace Whit/Merrifield/Kiemaier and Belt with. Sign a couple of vets too of course. Formula for the 89 to 93 teams and 2015 team was just that. Use pool of minor leaguers to fill spots and let them compete, supplement with vets.

The Orioles thus far don't have a single contributor on the team gained from years 3-5 of their losing cycle. Other than Adley Rutchman none of their players are a top 10 draft pick. Their current team is entirely built on developing older, less heralded draft picks (Mullins, Satlander, Hays) and smart pickups. And unlike the 2021-23 Jays they are doing it with a bottom 5 payroll. They get no credit for this at all. What's going to happen when all the picks start contributing and (if) the payroll goes up? Your narrative is false because your assuming the Orioles accidently were bad in 2021 and 22, rather than understanding they let the tank go on 2 extra years, because there was point in winning during a 60 game fanless season, and 2021 which had limited fans and lots of uncertainty.

Right, but Kikuchi has been serviceable anyway. Rodriquez is a lot younger than Kikuchi and has lights out minor league numbers, so it is maybe more likely his homer rate is a complete fluke as compared to Kikuchi. And performance wise Rodriquez is more like Baltimore's Manoah, ERA so high he had to be sent down. Which one is a better bet to be a contributor rest of the way, Manoah or Rodriquez? Kind of think Toronto might move for a starter, and Baltimore might not, because when they crunch numbers Baltimore will believe in Rodriquez, but Toronto won't believe in Manoah... I guess their next 2 starts will be important.

The Tampa Bay Rays worship which went on for 15 years and is still on going was and is way worse. Can anybody on this board just respond like a normal person? The Orioles have really executed every decision well since Elias took over but (some) on the board act like they are just a bunch of knuckleheads that lucked into 5 years of high picks. They avoided the Druw Jones and Austin Martins of the world and so far nailed every high pick, they built an elite bullpen out of scraps, they are building a serviceable rotation on the cheap, they (perhaps) purposely extended their tank into the Covid years when revenues would have been down no matter what. The thread is titles 'Beasts of the East' and the Orioles just moved into first. For gods sake, if that triggers you, then don't read the thread. You know you can avoid the 'Beasts of the Easts' thread, the day the Orioles move into first. Wakes up... Reads and Globe and Mail (or where-ever you get your news...) Checks last nights scores (notices Orioles have moved into first...) Then says "This does not please me. I will check Blue Jays message board but avoid the "Beasts of the East" thread as the Orioles are now the "Beast of the East" and I don't want to hear about it.

Is there a flaw in fWAR where it considers home rate too much? I think so. So Gibson is probably not as good as his fWAR, on the other hand some of the other Baltimore starters might be dinged too much by fWAR based on higher homer rates, so in all their staff is OK, and perfect fit for a team with a killer bullpen. In the playoffs these guys will only have to go 4 or 5 innings. Rodriquez especially. If his homerun rate goes down there they have their ace (on the other hand even if he starts performing he probably can't be trusted health wise for a deep run).

They are on a level above everyone else so their offseason looks bad, but wasn't, it was decent. Everyone complains about Kyle Gibson but he has 2.0 fWAR compared to Bassit at 1.2 and they only gave Gibson 1/6 the money commitment. Adam Frazier only has 0.2 fWAR, but has 1.2 bWAR, and is a league average bat playing 2nd (fWAR dings his defense for some reason) Whatever the truth about his value, the move was made considering their freak park where a left handed hitter may be way more valuable than a righty. Anyway those 2 moves were the ones people complained about but are working out fine. Grayson Rodriquez has an xFIP of 3.87 and insane minor league stats so maybe they'll just roll with him. Whatever they do they 'think' they are the smartest guys in the room (whether that is true or not we will see), so their trade deadline will be unconventional. They probably value their current starters and their prospects more than the board or the industry does and won't make moves that don't make sense to them.