Olerud363

Correction on pace for -26 fWAR defense. If we project using his decay rate since 2022 I think he could hit -1 or -2 WAR by next year. Challenge Joe Carter 1997. Maybe even this year. Imagine he hits .250 with 14 homers, and -30 fDefense... like it's worse than Bellinger when taking the whole picture.

Are you saying he is repeating his 2022 season? He is like at 1/3 2022 value per 162 162/74*0.4= 0.8756756756756756 He is going to set the world record for worst defensive player ever... well maybe not quite but he has no power and is on pace for like -23 fangraphs defense. What is up with that? Will he set the world record for worst f-defense to ever win a gold glove?

1 Freddie Freeman LAD 72 332 13 59 46 9 10.5% 16.6% .230 .359 .324 .404 .554 .404 .421 157 1.9 25.3 -5.4 3.1 2 Paul Goldschmidt STL 71 320 13 46 37 7 12.5% 21.9% .213 .344 .289 .381 .502 .380 .394 143 0.5 17.6 -3.4 2.5 3 Yandy Diaz TBR 61 269 12 45 36 0 11.9% 16.0% .220 .326 .302 .394 .522 .396 .393 161 -3.0 16.4 -4.7 2.1 4 Luke Raley TBR 55 185 12 35 27 8 6.5% 30.8% .317 .333 .268 .346 .585 .393 .393 159 1.2 14.1 0.3 2.1 5 Christian Walker ARI 69 293 15 41 49 1 8.5% 17.4% .249 .281 .272 .336 .521 .361 .347 125 0.4 9.5 1.0 2.0 6 LaMonte Wade Jr. SFG 68 272 9 38 27 2 17.3% 18.0% .183 .323 .280 .415 .463 .388 .386 147 -0.7 14.9 -5.5 1.9 7 Ryan Noda OAK 69 257 7 34 26 2 18.7% 33.1% .176 .381 .245 .397 .422 .365 .355 140 1.2 13.3 -4.0 1.8 8 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 71 323 8 48 40 0 11.8% 21.7% .156 .335 .273 .359 .429 .345 .346 121 -1.0 6.9 -0.8 1.7 9 Pete Alonso NYM 64 270 22 42 49 2 10.4% 20.4% .308 .200 .228 .322 .536 .365 .398 136 -1.0 10.8 -3.1 1.7 10 Brandon Drury LAA 66 268 12 31 37 0 4.9% 27.2% .231 .327 .267 .313 .498 .345 .319 119 -2.0 4.0 1.7 1.5 11 Matt Olson ATL 72 325 20 51 51 1 14.5% 29.2% .269 .273 .233 .348 .502 .363 .371 126 -0.2 10.3 -7.6 1.4 12 Ty France SEA 69 300 6 42 32 1 6.0% 16.3% .144 .319 .278 .347 .422 .338 .337 121 -3.5 4.0 -3.3 1.1 13 Anthony Rizzo NYY 66 283 11 34 36 0 7.4% 22.6% .167 .309 .262 .339 .429 .337 .330 116 -2.9 2.5 -1.8 1.0 14 Justin Turner BOS 69 298 10 41 37 3 9.4% 15.1% .170 .299 .277 .352 .447 .349 .356 118 -1.1 5.2 -5.3 1.0 15 Connor Joe PIT 63 228 6 29 21 3 10.1% 28.5% .199 .323 .239 .329 .438 .334 .319 109 -0.6 1.9 0.0 1.0 16 Spencer Steer CIN 70 298 10 39 39 7 10.4% 17.8% .197 .312 .278 .362 .475 .363 .335 121 0.5 8.2 -9.0 0.9 17 Josh Naylor CLE 63 251 8 25 53 5 6.4% 15.5% .162 .310 .288 .331 .450 .330 .363 110 -2.0 0.9 -1.9 0.8 18 Donovan Solano MIN 62 200 2 17 17 0 10.5% 22.0% .109 .367 .282 .375 .391 .342 .368 120 0.0 4.7 -4.5 0.7 19 Brandon Belt TOR 48 180 4 18 16 0 15.0% 37.2% .171 .444 .263 .378 .434 .357 .314 130 -2.0 4.4 -3.7 0.7 20 Joey Gallo MIN 52 185 11 21 24 0 14.6% 36.8% .269 .247 .192 .319 .462 .337 .334 116 -0.1 3.5 -4.1 0.6 21 Nick Pratto KCR 47 188 4 22 19 1 10.6% 33.5% .142 .433 .284 .372 .426 .352 .340 123 -0.9 4.1 -5.7 0.5 22 Gio Urshela LAA 62 228 2 22 24 3 4.4% 15.8% .075 .346 .299 .329 .374 .308 .288 94 -1.7 -3.4 -0.2 0.4 23 Wilmer Flores SFG 53 173 7 20 23 0 9.2% 16.8% .194 .273 .258 .324 .452 .334 .304 111 -1.0 1.3 -3.5 0.4 24 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 71 311 9 31 42 3 8.7% 15.8% .149 .308 .279 .350 .428 .340 .391 118 -1.6 5.0 -11.9 0.4 25 Carlos Santana PIT 64 268 6 28 34 5 11.6% 17.5% .145 .261 .231 .317 .376 .307 .300 90 1.3 -1.9 -3.6 0.3 26 Yuli Gurriel MIA 46 186 3 18 14 4 7.5% 11.8% .130 .288 .266 .323 .396 .310 .280 95 0.9 -0.2 -3.2 0.3 27 Andrew Vaughn CHW 72 302 10 33 42 0 8.3% 18.5% .191 .266 .240 .321 .431 .328 .338 108 -4.4 -1.4 -6.6 0.2 28 Vinnie Pasquantino KCR 61 260 9 24 26 0 9.6% 11.9% .190 .250 .247 .324 .437 .329 .350 106 -2.0 -0.1 -6.8 0.2 29 Jake Cronenworth SDP 71 298 7 30 24 3 11.4% 21.5% .153 .253 .212 .314 .365 .301 .312 91 0.7 -2.6 -6.2 0.1 30 Triston Casas BOS 64 239 8 28 24 0 15.5% 25.9% .180 .265 .215 .335 .395 .324 .351 100 -0.9 -0.9 -6.6 0.1

I've been refreshing fangraphs all morning to see the new fWars after last night. For a while I was really watching closely the Vlad vs Ryan Noda race, but Noda has pulled out in front by 1.4 WAR, so I think we can call it for Noda. What is getting interesting now is Vlad vs Triston Casas. Casas is now in Positive WAR territory and has pulled within 0.3 WAR of Vlad, Questions: 1. Will Casas pull ahead? 2. Will Vlad's WAR go negative? He is probably a few 110 mph double play grounders, a bad baserunning mistake, some whale dives where he misses balls other 1b get to, and maybe fails to pick a couple of throws from going negative WAR.

If you are right this team is f***ed. Theory 1. Prospects have high variance both good and bad some will surprise, some will fail, keep your chin up, even though our prospects hit .240 with some walks and power, and Baltimores prospects all hit .320 with walks and power, that isn't the end of the world, some of ours might surprise and some of theirs might fail. We will see. Theory 2. Prospects have low variance, and we can predict their eventual outcomes by their minor league stats. Baltimores crew of 10 guys hitting .320 with walks and power will produce a super-team, our crew of 10 guys hitting together like .240 with power, or .290 without, are nothing, we are f***ed. If you are right, then operation dark years needs to start at lunch. Trade everyone, win 50 for 3 years, and try to come back in 2028 when Baltimore's guys are getting pay raises.

Well your statement was that he only has a 5% chance of being a starter.... if your above scenario happens he still has a good chance of being a starter for a rebuilding team.... Lots of guys carry a .225 average hit for power and can produce a couple of WAR even without elite defense. Look at Schwarber or Suarez. Gallo too. .220 with 35 homers, tread water with plate discipline, defense and base running is a 3 WAR player. Good organization would focus on what Martinez can do, and try to optimize him, bad organization will start putting limits on a unicorn player when they are 21. Let's say he had the same 'value' but hit .275 with 15 homers. Would people think he has a better shot? Would the data say so?

His average may not decline in the same way a normal players does when he get to the Majors. Vladimir Guerrero JR, 110 mph ground balls are probably 100% hits in the minors but 75% in the majors, his 95+ ground balls are probably 60% hits or something in the minors but 30% in the majors. Orevlis isn't really getting a boost from hard grounders that go through minor league infieilds, they can catch his pop ups at the same rate in the minors and majors. Players often add a bit of power in the majors. So a ground ball machine with hard contact may lose a lot in the majors, but a weird popup power machine may not lose as much.

If his numbers translate with the same formula that Vladimir Guerrero JRs did he will do the following... .220 with 60 homers at age 22 .186 with 40 homers at age 23 .155 with 19 homers at age 24 Basically using the Guerrero formula you hit for your minor league average but with more power at age 22, then after that average and power decline, so he will have a decent year next year but then become unplayable.

It's hard to answer this question because he is such an unusual player he has no comparison group. The players that we remember that are similar to him (like Rob Deer) have a 100% rate of being starters, but that is why we remember them. Intuitively it seems to me it has to be like 75% chance he becomes a starter in some form. I can't say there has been any prospect like him in Jays history. The closest I can remember is Felipe Lopez, who didn't hit .220, but also didn't hit 30 homers, so offensively was probably a similar value in the minors, and he became a starter for a couple of years. What evidence is there that players who hit .220 with 30 homers in aa at age 20 and 21 don't become starters? Like to prove your point you'd have to come up with 40 of them, show that only "2" every played 140 games in a season. I would say there is a 93.4% chance he becomes a starter, at least for the As or something.

James Click should only be interim President and GM. Plan to fix it.... 1. Shapiro fires everyone including himself, leaves plans for stadium renovations and business plans on his desk. Good architect, engineer, and business manager are sent by Rogers to retrieve them and take over business side. 2. James Click only one not fired takes over, job is to try to fix rest of season. 3. Long term candidates are vetted on Blue Jays message board and have to join and undergo extensive questioning by the great minds under this board. BJMB is fully responsible for vetting next baseball ops hire, then 5 years from now no complaining, the candidate was chosen by you.

Seattle is only 2 games back of the Jays, so I think he is probably a bit devastated that our beloved Blue Jays are in a class with the Red Sox and Mariners.

Will they win a playoff game? The expectations for the Bo/Vlad winning cycle was that they would win playoff games and series and contend for division title. So far in Bo/Vlad years Number of days spent in 'contention' for division title = 0 Number of playoff wins = 0 2021, and 2022 Rays, then Yankees got off to great starts and coasted to 100 wins so Jays were 7-10 games out of the division most of the season. This year? Repeat. Will they win a playoff game this year? They could. I would say the chances are less than 50% though. (40% chance to make the playoffs and 75% chance to win a game if they are in = like 30% chance of winning a playoff game).

No one said they expected him to be a .350 hitter with 60 HR as a 23/24 year old. 80 hit tool is a rare designation given out once every 5 years or so, if that. I think BA said Vlad was the first to get it. It means projected to be a top 5 hitter in baseball or better. His minor league numbers put him in a class with Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols, Juan Soto, his Dad. Miguel Cabrera actually had much less impressive minor league numbers but excelled age 23 and 24. Those guys could all do it year after year. Vlad did reach his potential as a 22 year old. Based on minor league numbers and his age 22 season Vlad would have been projected to hit .310 with power for a decade, and his ceiling was triple crown seasons, just like Pujols and Cabrera and Thomas and his Dad (only Cabrera won the triple crown, but they all had around .320 40 120 lines several times) So yes. Based on 100 years of baseball analytics Bo is hitting his projection and talent level fine, Vlad is far below it. 24 is the start of a players prime, and a guy with Vlad's talent shouldn't be fighting it out with Ryan Noda.

But Bo wasn't an 80 hit tool greatest hitting prospect, 19 year old hitting .400 at double a.... Bo didn't set the 22 year old homerun record. He killed the low minors, was a .280 or so hitter in the high minors and has absolutely met expectations and his having a very normal aging curve getting slightly better every year. Vlad has fallen apart compared to minor league stats (which were in greatest ever terroritoy) and his historic age 22 season. We expect way more from Vlad, which is why everyone is so dissapointed watching him in a close battle with Triston Casas in the failed prospect fourth tier first basemen WAR race.

Red Sox 'worse franchise ever' now right back in it half a game behind the Jays. Casas, the worst failed prospect ever is heating up and is neck in neck with Vlad for the fourth tier first basemen WAR race (Casas will likely go positive after a nice night tonight and when we check fangraphs tomorrow Vlad will have a slim 0.5 to 0.2 WAR lead over Casas). Red Sox pitching looking fine to with seemingly rehabilitated Paxton making up for Chris Sale. Red Sox current cycle (even though they are the worst franchise ever, lead the Bo/Vlad Jays Cycle in Playoff victories 6-0, and it would not surprise me if they make a surprise playoff appearance, win a series or two and extend that lead to 10-0.

Is this Mike Wilner's Twitter feed? You forgot - the only reason the losses are so close and frustrating is that they are a really good team and are in every game. Except this one tonight I guess

Ryan Noda = 1.8 WAR Vladimir Guerrero Jr = 0.6 WAR (maybe 0.5 after tonight)

RYAN f***ING NODA = 1.8 WAR. Patience. Getting the absolute most of his abilities. Playing OK Defense at first. VLADIMIR 80 hit tool GUERRERO = 0.5 WAR NODA is 1.3 WAR ahead (I took off 0.1 WAR from Vlad for tonight's performance, even if it is still 0.6 tomorrow, Noda is still 1.2 ahead) And Merryweather... f***-off. Pearson sucks. Merryweather is awesome. Enough., The entire high (aka low) performance team needs to be fired.

Shapiro needs a press conference tomorow and say the following "We have looked at the fangraphs and rubbish we have discarded is doing quite well, Julian Merryweather and Ryan Noda for example. Mean time our 80 hit tool greatest hitting prospect ever is 1 FULL fangraph WAR less than Ryan Noda. The prospect we believed in, Pearson is getting lit up like Christmas... but Merryweather (congratulations young man) has success. Everyone is f***ing fired, including myself and including Don Mattingly... I have left the plans for the next two stadium renovations on my desk... the only person not fired is the chap from Houston, Crick or something, he will attempt to right the ship, god speed."

Since 2008 Rays have been better than Jays 13/16 years, and their non-competitive years were only 4 (2014 to 2017). Current Rays cycle is at 6 years and shows no sign of ending any time soon. They are headed for 3/4 division titles and 3rd 100+ win quality team in 4 years. What year do you see the Jays next becoming better than the Rays? I mean they could finish ahead of them some year, but like do you see Jays beating the Rays over a 3 year period any time soon?

It's going to be fascinating when somebody explains what the f*** has happened during the last 10 years. The only saving grace is that any teams secrets can't remain secrets forever, or for very long, as players change organizations. Look at the Yankees, in 2019 they had multiple unexplained weird performances and hit 300 homers, with Judge and Stanton injured and only hitting 30 together... Mike Ford, Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshelo Torres, Gary Sanchez all came crashing down, some dramatically. A small part of it is the ball was unjuiced, but that doesn't explain why now, all kinds of Yankees are underperforming. Maybe only Judge is allowed to know 'the system' as he doesn't want the other guys revealing it. Or maybe all this s*** is just random...

What are the main differences between Bichette and Witt Jr. in terms of batted ball data? Seem to be vaguely similar playey to Bichette, hit's the ball hard, strikes out more than you would think. I just looked at their baseball reference batted ball data, and it is similar but Bichette slightly better in every respect, like Witt is 89ish exit V, Bo 91... Does fangraphs and other batted ball data say the same? Is the difference between Bichette and Witt make sense given batted ball data? Or is Witt under-performing and will be more like Bichette when the luck evens out.

According to fangraphs Gibson's 4 year WAR was higher than Bassett's with similar innings pitched. Their 2 year WAR was Bassitt winning 6 to 4.8. Their 3 year WAR including 2023 now is a virtual tie. They are 34 (Bassett) and 35 years old. One of them is owed 60 million dollars the other 10? f***. Maybe Elias isn't a genius and just looks at the Fangraphs website... Oh this guy has 5 fWAR last 2 years and this guy 6... and the 5 WAR guy is 50 million dollar cheaper... I'll choose that one.

If the process that was used to hire him and set up his team is a sound one, than they will be fine just like the Rays. Ownership and CEO level management is super-important there. So who knows. Like, I guess some think the Red Sox are now poorly run, but John Henry, Red Sox owner, has a trading background (as I believe does the Rays owner), and has won 4 World Series with different Baseball Ops leaders. I think back just after he bought the team he consulted Bill James, tried to hire Billy Beane, read every analytics book he could at the time.... So yeah... if the Angelos kid is just a disinterested dead beat, who lucked into Elias, who then lucked into all these prospects because of a deep losing cycle, then maybe they won't be all that. Someone else pointed out something about Hicks, that the Orioles critical advanced reconnaissance used proprietary methods to identify that Hicks was going to help them... or some s*** like that. So they are least acting like they have something going on beyond the top 5 draft picks and luck...

Or Saving for Ohtani? I don't know. Glancing over the Orioles ownership situation, it seems Angelos' son is in charge, is not selling the team, and payroll will be raised at the right time... blah, blah, blah... I think Angelos loved to spend and win, maybe the son is more dis-interested, or maybe they are all playing the ultra-long game and will sell this deadline too to set up for a 40 year dynasty... If money was enough to get Ohtani they are well positioned to get him... Payroll room, good young team, fantastic park for him... Though you have to think it's the iconic franchises, Dodgers, Yankees, maybe Red Sox, Mets and Giants that will be best positioned, but you never know. Would he go to Baltimore if they are coming off of a 95 win season with great young core?