Olerud363

I'm not overthinking anything. Again haven't even got into spray angle too much, other than to wonder if it is repeatable and could explain the pattern. 54 balls in play are not worth as much as 100 walks. If that was true we'd see way more walks and intentional walks. When not walking Soto is a better hitter anyway (lifetime, .280 with .521 slugging). So you are saying Soto should try to put more balls in play and walk less? That makes no sense. Even if you converted his 100 extra walks to non-walk outcomes (80 balls in play and 20 ks) at the same rate as his lifetime averages he'd still hit .280 just with a much lower on base percentage. So And in fact Vlad and Soto's wOBA and xwOBA are consistent for their careers just not this year. If you trust xwOBA Vlad is getting unlucky and Soto a bit lucky this year. It's not that the 100 walks are worth more than 50 balls in play, it's that Vlad should have a .550 slugging based on how hard he is hitting the ball, but is at .450 instead. We all agree that xwOBA doesn't include spray angle, it's not overthinking to ask if a more advanced stat that does include it should be developed. It would only be worth it to do that if spray angle on different types of batted balls is a reproducible stat. And if you look at how the shifts were (are) done (often shift to pull in infield, straight away or opp-o for fly balls) it's obvious that fly balls are sprayed differently than ground balls for everyone. Then the next question is what is the fly ball spray trend compared to ground ball spray trend for Vlad? Is the trend repeatable? And you can answer a question without accusing people of overthinking. Just say 'Vlad has hit ___ percentage of his fly balls to center this year, but that trend is likely not repeatable, and he will regress to hitting ___ fly balls to center", or "Vlad does not hit an unussual number of fly balls to center", or "I don't know", or "I do know but have signed an NDA with the Cincinnati Reds (I consult for them) so can't answer".

I remember a few years ago most people on the board thought that Vlad can't really control hitting so many fly balls to center and that would even out, but in some discussions a few weeks ago I sensed that view was changing, and spray rate to center is a thing... It's a subtle point. Of course there are pull hitters and guys who hit to all fields, but is there a 'center field' hitter? Like a guy who hits a disportionate number of fly balls to center field, and fewer near the lines (not saying there is or isn't but if this could explain Vlad).

I'm not adding anything into my perception of what xwOBA should be. Tango is an insightful guy and realized right away this board is constantly answering questions that were not asked. I asked why Vlad and Soto have almost the same xwOBA when Soto has 100 more walks. Also asked why Vlad 2022 has a much higher xwOBA then 2019,20 and 22 when his hard hit rates are similar (ground ball rate is a bit lower than 2019/20, 22 but not extreme lower). If spray was included that could explain the above... however only explanation I see is Vlad is hitting the ball much harder and at better angles than 2023 Soto, or 2019, 20, and 22 Vlad. That could be true, but doesn't seem the case by the eye test.

Not sure what you mean about made up comment. You've said you don't think WAR is correct for 1b men. I followed the Tango conversation as closely as I could but maybe missed something. It seemed you didn't much to say when arguing with the expert. Vladimir Guerrero Jr is having a disappointing season and an unusual career path so far, you have a known blind spot to this. He's going to end up the most overpaid arbitration player ever in terms of real value vs. paid value because of flaws with how the arbitration system works. In terms of value assigned by the WAR formula Vlad is where Bellinger was when he got released (though has only been real brutal for 4 months, not 12) By repeatedly posting you stupid graphic, you are saying that WAR doesn't work for your hero.... and that to even imply Vlad is worth 0.2 WAR this year, and that could lead to some hard decisions is a point worth mocking. Players like Rios, Bellinger, Vernon Wells have essentially been given away for nothing after their WAR collapsed compared to paycheck, but that math isn't worth discussing for Vlad according to you, which makes me think you don't believe in the formula. You seem to have then implied that WAR isn't working for Vlad, had an opportunity to debate Tango on the point, and didn't.

I thought the new higher walls might hurt him, because line drive homers would become singles at Rogers Center... however by memory I can only remember that happening once this year (that 9th inning against Atlanta), when other years Vlad line drive singles off the wall happened a few times. Total 'low sample size' eye test here -- but Sundays game makes me think there is an issue with xOBA. Vlad hit a 385 foot fly ball out to center, a 410 foot 110 mph double to center, and a couple of other hard hit balls, probably had an awesome expected oba, and had a .250 on base and .500 slugging on one of his best days. This could be just stupid thinking because maybe all these balls to centerfield are a fluke or something and it will start evening out, but game after game now almost August it sure doesn't seem like it is going to change.

The thing I'm not getting about xwOBA is that Vlad is running a .390 this year, same as Juan Soto. He is also way ahead in xwOBA as compared to his 2019, 2020, and 2022. On the other hand everything is the same as those years except his ground ball rate is a bit (but not way) lower. How does Vlad and Juan Soto have the same xOBA when they both hit the ball hard, but one guy draws 150 walks and the other 50, one guy runs a .420 on base average hitting .270, and the other guy .335 hitting .270? So intuitively the xOBA thing doesn't make sense. It is implying that Vlad is even with Soto, so should be hitting .330 or so to compensate for the 100 less walks. While Soto is hitting what he deserves to be (.270 or so). Watching the games seems like his xOBA is too high because he only pulls ground balls, but not fly balls.

I remember Tango saying happen because people are answering different questions, or not answering... I have three questions. Are these questions really that outlandish? Question 1: What will Vlad's 2024 and 2025 Salary be in comparison to his 2023 performance? Question 2: What are the chances that Vlad's 2024 performance is similar to his 2023 performance? Question 3: What are the chances that a cold hearted front office releases a player as loved as Vladimir Guerrero jr, if his salary is way above his performance level.

He won't go down but the important question is how much Vlad will get dinged for his 2023 in terms of limiting his raise. Soto is going to be paid 23 million and then like 30 million for his last 2 years. So 53 million. Going into his last 2 years of arbitration, Vlad will have similar numbers to Soto in terms of home-runs, RBIs, all star appearances and counting stats, but be way behind in the semi advanced stuff (getting on base) and way behind in the advanced stuff. So the question is where does his salary end up compared to his true value?

I'm an Orioles admirer (not an Orioles fan) because I like what they are doing with player development, everybody is giving us a hard time because supposedly the Orioles are only successful because they got so many high 1st round picks. That's ********. They are successful because they are executing the picks and developing the talent into a good team. Rutchman and Henderson both have underlying batted ball stats and xOBA way worse than Vlad, except they are fit, can run the bases, don't swing at balls (!) and are on pace for 4 WAR each. The gaslighting here is stupid. I know some people are trolling on this thread but the underlying theme of the thread is true, the truth is Vlad is more similar to Kendry Morrales RIGHT NOW than Miguel Cabrera or even Prince Fielder. If current trends continue 2021 will be more distant and it will be hard to justifying 20 million for Kendry Morales.

Bellinger put up 9 fWAR to in his previous 2 seasons before going into a 2 year slump. Vlad isn't getting released tomorrow, but if his combined 2023/24 WAR is where Bellinger's was it's a possibility. Some have mentioned his xwOBA is deceiving because he doesn't pull the ball in the air much anymore. His pull % seems OK, but I wonder if you crunched the data more you'd find some consistent pattern to explain the results. Like maybe his pull percentage is OK because he is pulling the ball hard on the ground, but all his fly balls are to center. It reminds me of Kendry Morrales. He also ran an xOBA of almost .400 for a couple years before the Jays signed him, and there was talk they loved the batted ball data, but he still under-performed EE. In 2015-2019 their xwOBA was close but Kendry under-performed his by more than EE. Pattern held for several years. Would you pay Kendry Morales 25 million?

The thread was started as a partial joke after 2 years of replacement level play, admittedly because of Covid they weren't full years. Now that he's done another 4 months of replacement level play it's back. The talk of him getting demoted is dumb, the talk of him getting released if he's in line for a 20+ million salary after a replacement level season isn't dumb, it would be a distinct possibility if this kept up for another year.

The replies aren't for you. They are for others following the conversation who might not have realized Vlad is playing at replacement value and how his arbitration salary may still go up to 20 million plus anyway. No one is releasing Vlad Guerrero Jr. when he's getting paid 700,000 k, or 5 million or even 10 million. The issue comes in when he's replacement level and getting paid 20 million plus and there is no means to assign him a salary more in line with his value (because arbitration salaries can't go down by much). That is exactly what occasionally has happened to others in the past. And in fact the arbitration number might consider all the things you like, like the RBIs, the all star appearances, the gold glove, the 2021 numbers, the counting stats. But in terms of the team, it doesn't matter if you don't believe in WAR, your not the one that is going to be crunching those numbers when they make this decision, someone like Tom Tango will and we already saw that you have no arguments with someone like him. And obviously I'm not saying he will be released tomorrow, I doubt even this year, though if this level of play continues it could be a possibility next year. Tough decision, as obviously he has talent and could immediately burn the Jays if playing for a rival... on the other hand would they pay a 1 WAR player 20+ million in 2025 if he has played 2 years of replacement level? That has happened yet obviously, it's only been 4 months.

You aren't getting the issue here. Jose Cruz jr got released off of a 2.4 WAR season because he had 2 30 homer seasons previous to that and his arb was going to be too high. Bellinger got released not because the Dodgers thought he couldn't come back, but because his arbitration salary would be too high, even if the Dodgers won the case. Vlad is heading for an absolute disaster here, because the difference between his advanced stats value, and his counting stats/ trivial accomplishments could make the difference between his arbitraton salary and his value historic.

You are the one being a troll. We just saw a player Cody Bellinger, who had the exact same hitting stats in 2019 as Vlad in 2021 get released, so to act like Bellinger and Guerrero are completely different situations is trolling. Both hit .300 .400 .600 or so with almost 50 homeruns. Both had replacement level seasons within a couple of years (according to fangraphs) Because of the arbitration system both were going to get paid more than they are worth. Bellinger is different because his hitting stats were insane bad, so on one hand it is much easier to release a .200 .265 .390 guy (Bellinger) then a .270 .330 .440 guy (Guerrero). On the other hand Vlad could have 0 fWAR with 100 rbis and that could make his arbitration salary higher than Bellingers would have been, so he could end up being more over valued than Bellinger.

As much as I am giving Vlad a hard time I don't totally buy the historically bad fWAR defense. According to fangraphs he is having one of the worst d-seasons in Jays history not sure that is real.

He's at 15 million or so right now. It will be interesting to see his arbitration numbers next year. Team is going to use the advanced analytics to try and get a decrease, but Vlad's team would use All star appearances, career counting stats, the gold glove and RBIs to try and get 20+ million. The team might come in at 12 million and the agent at 22 million or something. What do you guys think? It's still possible to release a guy in spring training and not have to pay the full years salary right? What happens if Vlad won a 24 million dollar arbitration case, off a 0 WAR year, and came into spring training out of shape?

He's not getting released right now. It would be a serious discussion this winter if he ends up at 0 WAR and is due 25 million in arbitration. He probably doesn't get released because of the nightmare scenario of winning a triple crown for the red sox or something. If he does this until the end of next year would they re-up for another 25 million? Man... then it gets hard. Probably won't get released because the underlying risk of a competitor getting a 2021 or better level season from him for cheap. I think that was harder to see happening with Bellinger because his numbers were so messed up, but would be easier to see a .270 .330 .450 hitter still making solid contact rediscover the MVP level.

What I am saying is this cycle of Blue Jays baseball could very well end without a serious run at a division title or a playoff win. The Orioles have surpassed the Jays in terms of that accomplishment, they went into a deeper rebuild, but are the first to be in a division title race. Meanwhile the Os are 3 or 4 years away from even thinking about service time issues, and have a payroll 1/3 of the Jays.

They aren't totally wrong, the best statistical rating systems show Vladdy as being replacement level this year. And it's not all because 'fangraphs' isn't measuring his defense right. His on base and slugging are about the same as Tristan Cassas wRC+ paints a better picture, but he is still only 13th among qualified 1b men, 56th in baseball. It's the kind of performance that is literally easy to replace at first. Acting like it's 'good enough' is trolling too. If Vladdy played like this through the end of next year the Blue Jays would be justified in releasing him, given he'd still be due 25 million or more in arbitration based on RBIs, all star appearances and the gold glove.

The Vlad vs Triston Casas race is really heating up with Vlad only .1 WAR ahead, 0.3 to 0.2 Vlad vs Torkelson is also close with Torkelson ahead. And for those of you who think this is unfair to Vlad because fangraphs doesn't measure his Gold Glove defense right, note that Casas' on base and slugging are almost the same as Vlad's now. I will admit Gio Urshela is only ahead because of defense... Anyway the second page of first basemen is a very tight race.... (Yup, Vlad not on first page anymore, out of top 30 1b men). 31 Gio Urshela LAA 62 228 2 22 24 3 4.4% 15.8% .075 .346 .299 .329 .374 .308 .288 93 -1.8 -3.7 -0.2 0.4 32 Spencer Torkelson DET 92 397 14 48 51 2 9.6% 24.2% .184 .276 .232 .310 .416 .315 .336 101 -0.4 0.0 -9.6 0.4 33 Grae Kessinger HOU 10 24 1 2 1 0 20.8% 12.5% .211 .267 .263 .417 .474 .392 .469 154 -0.4 1.2 1.7 0.4 34 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 92 401 14 45 60 4 8.0% 15.7% .173 .291 .271 .339 .444 .339 .396 117 -3.2 5.0 -15.4 0.3 35 Mike Moustakas - - - 63 199 8 28 25 0 10.1% 26.6% .179 .313 .254 .337 .434 .333 .324 99 -0.5 -0.8 -3.6 0.2 36 Triston Casas BOS 83 308 12 38 32 0 14.0% 25.3% .198 .286 .236 .341 .433 .338 .353 110 -1.4 2.4 -10.8 0.2

That's not the point. The point is the young Orioles have reached a stage the Bo/Vlad Jays have not. The Bo/Vlad Jays have never even really been in a division race. 2020 and 2021 the Rays took control early, 2022 the Yankees took control early, and I don't believe there has every been a day where the Bo/Vlad Jays have been within 3 games of first after May 15th.

Vlad isn't keeping his average and on base percentage high. Juan Soto's on base percentage is 90 points higher. In 2023 he is about a 0 WAR player. That means any random guy could replace him. Could Horwitz put up 0 WAR?? Maybe not. But Maybe. If you need a first basemen as good as 2023 Vlad (who is ranked like 25th or something out of 30), you randomly sign a guy, or you randomly trade middle infielders like Schneider for a minor league 1st basemen. Will Vlad continue to be a 0 WAR player? I don't know. Probably not, but the decision to release him would be based on him not being worth his 24 million or whatever in arbitration, so even if you thought he was 2 WAR it still makes sense to replace him.

Cito - swing often pull dat ball. Laika - swing less pull dat ball. I doubt Laika could be a hitting coach but need a guy like him doing the hitting coach interview.

The last Soto strike out was something I wish Vlad would do more. Go deep into at bats. Take all border line pitches and if you get called out on a questionable pitch oh well. This is actually what Biggio used to do too and the benefits (more walks, more swings at good pitches, less grounder on s***** pitches that you roll over), were way more than the occasional called strike three. I say used to for Biggio, because seems like he got pissed off at his playing time, and decided to be a .200 .260 .360 hitter instead of a .220 .340 .370 hitter.

Swing at a first pitch a foot inside? lol. Yeah. Just insane how much better Soto is. Soto can have -20 defense, and hit .240 and still have 3.5 WAR because of his patience (check last years numbers). Maybe Soto's patience is just genetic, and there is no way Vlad could ever do it. He can't be that dumb right? Throw away 3 WAR because he thinks it fun to swing at bad pitches?