Olerud363

Just saying my memory is that there always were more players to be excited about in the J.P. years than now... Like even the failures (Snider, Arencibia) were exciting failures who we all loved and were the next big thing until they failed in the show, the guys now are failing at aa. Some other players of note from JP era... Yan Gomes may be the second best player they drafted. Yan Gomes (17 WAR), Jake Marisnick (9 WAR), Drew Huttchison (4 WAR), Aaron Loup (5 WAR), Erik Kratz (3.5 WAR) Ryan Roberts (5.8 WAR) (good regular once on division winning team) (looking it up Ryan Roberts was a clone of a couple of the Jays current 24 year old prospects doing OK, Jays gave up on him though).

Marcum was 10 WAR, David Bush 10 WAR, Romero 8 WAR, Hill 20 WAR, Lind 10 WAR, Thames 4.6 WAR (but was = to Lind other than luck of getting hot at the right time), Ryan Goins 0 WAR but was pretty much a regular on a contending team once. Obviously the Shatkins outcomes are still to be decided and we won't know for 10 years.

It's not Riccardi's fault that the industry didn't recognize Thames had value. What is the difference between Lind and Thames other than the order of their success and failure sequencing. Lind was lucky enough to have a big year in 2009, which then bought him 1300 games in MLB. Lind at his worst is Thames at his worst, Lind at his best is Thames at his best. They are the same except for some sequencing luck. Thames is also lucky in a way to get another chance. Doubt he learned anything in Korea that wasn't already there. His 2010 and 2011 minor league numbers indicate that talent was always there. Guys go up and down and some of it is just Random. Thames given 600 at bats a year probably would have done what he did in 2017 a couple of other times. Adams, Cooper, Purcey and Jenkins weren't at the same 'bust' level as the Shatkins picks, some of who won't make Buffalo... they were all major league players. Cooper was probably another guy at the Lind/Thames level but career got ended by injury. (Cooper had a bad year at aa, as lots of guys do, but that too was partly luck).

Having Don Mattingly around is probably bad... I know he's not a hitting coach, but he's there and hard to believe he doesn't talk hitting with the guys... in 2023 no one can have success with his approach. Even Bo Bichette would be well served by taking a few more pitches. Should have hired Jason Giambi instead for bench coach 'hey boys take pitches' advice giver.

I'm always amazed at how much s*** Ricciardi gets he drafted Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Travis Snider, David Cooper, Eric Thames, David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Chad Jenkins, J.P. Arencibia, all of who became prospects then played at least a couple years in the majors. Most didn't work out as franchise icons or anything but at least they reached prospect, then 'major league player' status. All these Shatkins draft picks aren't even succeeding at aaa. Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Thames and Brett Cecil all made it to the point where they could be a regular on a contending team for at least a couple of years.

It evens out though. Boston swept the Jays on 2 1-run wins, Baltimore swept on 2 extra inning wins. 4 of the 5 wins on this road trip were shaky, but before that I think 4 of the 5 last losses were close games, so basically 4-4 in the last 8 coin flip games. Problem is more the offence sucks lately, so too many coin flip games and not enough games like Friday.

I totally understand that Gausman has a crazy k-rate and is at another level compared to the other 3 guys in terms of peripherals. Just saying Baltimores top 2 (part of their worst every rotation) are like 15-10 3.10 or so, exactly the same as Toronto's top 2. The Gaussman thing is just crazy at this point. Random guys from Baltimore (worst rotation ever) are 7-5 with a 3.10 ERA or something. Berrios (horrible last year) is 7-5 with a 3.10 ERA or something. Kevin Gausman with one of the best pitches in baseball, amazing k-rate the last 4 years, pin point control and often looking like the best pitcher in baseball is also 7-5 3.10 or something. This has to turn around at some point? Or does he end up 11-10 with 300 ks by the end of this year? Every time the Gausman start come up instead of being confident there is a win, it's now like, well no runs today, or if by chance there are runs, Gausman will give up his once a month 6 run inning to inflate his era and take the loss anyway.

Just checked Grayson Rodriquez's minor league numbers... jesus. Doing great. Will be back up soon and chances are will do great.

Baltimore is 2 games out and have replaced their 2 worst hitters with a couple of super prospects. What is it anyway with the Baltimore rotation hate? It's silly. Bradish and Wells are (results wise) doing as good as Gausman and Berrios. Kyle Gibson is actually pretty close to Bassitt in fWAR over the last 5 years. Kremer vs Kikuchi are actually kind of close. And if Alex Manoah is really back, there is every possibility Grayson Rodriquez could come back to. People are just in denial of how good an organization this is. We'll see what they do at the trade deadline. My guess is they actually trade some older assets like Satlander or something for under-rated controllable pitching. Also their four great prospects they've called up so far, Rutchman, Henderson, Cowser, and Westburg all have great walk rates, indicating whatever system they have to 'get the boys on base' is translating to the majors.

They under-performed because of luck. Run-differential is not used to predict expected record, it's more complicated formulas. Bill James had a approximation using the Pythagorean ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. If you scored 700 runs and gave up 500 expected record would be a much higher percentage than if you scored 900 and gave up 700. So basically in 2015, even accounting that they were a high scoring team with good but not great run prevention, they still had the best expected record. For example in 2015 KC was 724 scored 641 allowed, Blue Jays 891 - 670. Houston was the best run prevention team by far and was 720 and 618. Two of the other teams that the Blue Jays beat in 2015 had better runs allowed but didn't even make the playoffs. 1993 Blue Jays had about a 850 to 750 run differential and still won the world series beating the best pitching team in the AL (White Sox) and winning a weird World Series against a similar hitting first team. So basically expected W/L matters, if you are a high scoring team you need to have a larger run differential than a low scoring team, but the 2015 Blue Jays were an amazing team when measured in expected W/L, far better than any other team in the AL, and far better than the 92 or 93 teams. Obviously they weren't quite as impressive before getting Price and Stroman's return, but they still had a good expected W/L in late July which is why AA went all out.

Myself and a few others have said they are already a seriously great organization because of the elite prospect performance, payroll situation, and Astros alumni running the show. They have more assets than anyone (especially when considering payroll space an asset) and presumably a smart front office. Let's see what they do at the deadline.

I have a couple of theories, one is that he only hits in minor league parks because of some psychological issue. And it's not at all that minor league parks are "small". I think because the dimensions are mostly the same, and the visibility and wind patterns may make it harder to hit in minor league parks. His minor league numbers and Dunnedin/Buffalo numbers make perfect sense in context. One of the greatest minor league hitters ever, who hit .400 in aa at age 19, would normally progress to destroy MLB pitching by age 22, which he did, in the minor league parks against major league pitching. His numbers in major league parks are a different guy and maybe he needs to be hypnotized or something or visualize he is hitting in New Hampshire. Second theory is that he's been dealing with minor injuries 70% of his MLB career. I think his rookie season he had an oblique and knee issues which required scheduled off days, his sophomore season he had severe obesity, this year talk of wrist and knee problems, so if this theory is true home run contest is probably not good, but who knows.

I don't know. We assume the training staff has OKd this and know that a guy with occasional sore wrist and knee won't be harmed by taking a couple hundred violent swings in 90 minutes... but you also assume that the training staff could get the obesity issues under control so who knows... like maybe the training staff gives a diet plan which involves no A&W (even though they are a sponsor) and a wrist maintenance plan which involves no homrerun derby and the player(s) tell the them to go f*** themselves.

It's not going to be just double their first halfs. If Arraez hits .400 for another half it will likely be a better .400, because he'll hit for a bit more power, more walks as the pitchers pitch around him more, if he's sharp enough to hit .400 again better baserunning and defense. And as you say "it seems highly doubtful either player reaches those final numbers."... so if Arraez somehow keeps it up, it is still unlikely that Acuna does. So IF Arraez hits .400 he probably ends up losing the WAR MVP 8-7 or something, and is close enough to win the MVP.

Luis Arraez now on pace for 6 WAR and in the top 10 in NL, but everyone is so bunched behind Acuna he is close to top 3. If he hits .400 I still think he will end up close to 7 WAR and top 3, and probably wins the MVP, now unlikely he somehow hits .400 with 4 WAR. Baserunning a bit better, power a bit better in the last month. Not saying Arraez will win the MVP, most likely scenario is he hits .360 with 5.5 WAR or something. Saying IF he hits .400 he wins MVP, because to hit .400 he will have to be hitting the ball hard (for him), taking close pitches (thus a higher walk rate), and on top of his game in other ways. The sharpness needed to hit .400 will probably show up in his baserunning and defense. Not that he'll be a gold glover, just unlikely he is sharp enough to hit .400 but not sharp enough to be on top of his baserunning and defense and line drive power game.

Really sucks but for the good of him, and the game need to get him to a good franchise. Life of a Toronto Blue Jays fan, greatest prospect ever will leave for another team, still young and become a legend. Will hit .340 52 125 with 120 walks first year away from Jays. Commissioner should intervene and transfer him to Atlanta and fine the Jays 200 million for ruining a legend. Vladdy stats Toronto 2023 .271 22 98 traded to Atlanta, signed to 10 year 150 million dollar contract based on Jays stats... HAtlanta 2024 .344 54 144 Reuinted with Alex Anthopoulos brings Braves fans so much joy, so much happiness. Spends age 25-42 seasons with them setting all kinds of records beating hammering Hank in tonnes of categories. Bo/Vlad playoff wins with Jays = 0 Vlad playoff wins with Atlanta 2024-2040 = 89 Bo playoff wins with Red Sox 2026-2041 = 75

It seems weird that Jose Cruz Jr. is better. But Cruz was actually a super consistent 2 WAR player and massively under-appreciated by the idiots running the team, both Gord Ash, and J.P. Ash kept sending him down to aaa when he was drawing tonnes of walks, showing a bit of power and playing OK in the outfield, then Cito got a hold of him and he hit 30 homeruns a couple of times with less walks, then he had a mediocre 2001, that was still worth 2 WAR with his baserunning and defense, but J.P. released him I guess because they couldn't really figure out the defense and baserunning back then. Then he went to San Francisco and had a nice year, maybe Bonds told him it was OK to walk... Cruz is second to Olerud in my mind in the 'what could have been'... missed probably 100 games being sent down and occasionally benched for no reason, had a wide variety of skills which nobody appreciate. If he had come up with a progressive organization who realized his value, encouraged his patience and and just him to play 155, walk as much as he wanted and play good defense, he would have had a much better career. He is the same as Vlad in value because Vlad is on pace to go like almost 0, 0, 6, 3, 0 in WAR and Cruz went 2, 2, 2, 2, 2

23 Jose Cruz 698 2901 122 396 355 85 10.9% 21.9% .212 .285 .250 .331 .462 .341 101 11.6 14.8 -3.5 10.9 24 Teoscar Hernandez 609 2419 129 337 369 35 7.3% 29.6% .240 .329 .263 .320 .503 .348 121 1.2 61.8 -34.9 10.8 25 Shawn Green 716 2766 119 402 376 76 7.4% 18.4% .219 .315 .286 .344 .505 .365 115 4.1 57.0 -42.7 10.6 26 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 577 2480 113 330 352 16 9.6% 16.3% .211 .300 .283 .356 .494 .362 132 -17.1 76.5 -66.8 9.3 27 Paul Molitor 405 1839 51 270 246 54 10.5% 9.6% .169 .325 .315 .387 .484 .382 129 9.2 77.1 -44.3 9.2 28 Damaso Garcia 902 3756 32 453 296 194 2.9% 7.6% .090 .304 .288 .312 .377 .308 85 4.5 -59.6 21.4 8.7 29 Otto Velez 522 1843 72 214 242 6 15.1% 18.1% .204 .282 .257 .372 .461 .372 127 -1.8 57.0 -34.0 8.7 30 Eric Hinske 655 2559 78 353 313 46 10.3% 20.4% .179 .301 .259 .337 .437 .336 100 16.0 16.2 -17.1 8.6 There was a rumor started that Erik Hinske has more fWAR than Vlad. Not true. Vlad is beating Hinske 9.3 to 8.6, and has played 70 less games. If Vlad continues to accumulate negative fWAR the next few weeks, as he has done the last 6 or 7 weeks, Hinske will take the lead over Vlad in fWAR as they reach apr. the same number of games played. There is also a rumor that our former 5th rate right fielder, who couldn't play defense and had maybe a 40 hit tool (but some power) has more fWAR than Vlad. This one is true. And Vlad will probably not catch him when they reach the same number of games. There is also a rumor that another 5th rate right fielder/center fielder, from 20 years ago, Jose Cruz (also a jr), who got released on behalf of being not worth it has more fWAR than Vlad in about the same number of games. True. That is true. There is also a rumor that some guy Otto Volez who the old timers probably can tell us more about, is better than Vlad according to the fWAR. This rumor is .... I don't know. I haven't divided out their fWAR per game. It is close VGJR and Otto Volez are close. Hinske, Hernandeez, Jose Cruz, Otto Volez, Vladimir Guerrero JR, a collection of 8-11 WAR in 600 games Toronto Blue Jays.

I'm not wrong. If the baseball gods made our best hitting prospect ever, .400+ double a average, generational prospect 80 hit tool guy into a sub-replacement right handed version of broken wrist obese 2004/5 Eric Hinske.... They can make our .200 hitting average, 30 hit tool, Mr. Popup into a .260 hitter with power and walks. Make Orelvis Martinez surprise us baseball gods. We deserve it after all, don't we?

Orelvis is and will be better than Vladimir Guerrero jr. That's not saying that much but... Based on his k-bb this year I think Orelvis can hit .250, will walk a lot when he matures, and contend for homerun titles regularly. He won't have any huge contract and free agency issues like Vlad either. Jays will call him up next year then sign him to a 10 year 100 million contract after he performs a few months. Orelvis will take it because unlike Vlad and Bo he won't think he is a 490 million dollar player, he'll remember that he could become Mr. Pop-up again overnight. He'll look at Vlad hitting .244 with 7 homers about to be released next year, and realize that the magic can disappear any second... Orelvis Martinez, the franchise!

It's an interesting debate because Orelvis has reached a stage where he probably has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a major league "starter" in some form. In Blue Jays history how many players have 'held their own' in AA at age 20, then excelled in AA at age 21? Out of those how many had 1 season of 400 at bats (that may not be a starter), how many have had 3 seasons of 500 at bats? What is more impressive Orelvis Martinez 20 and 21? Vernon Wells 21 and 22 in aaa ? Rowdy Tellez 22 and 23 in aaa? The latter two became starters. They also both had a very bad year, followed by an improvement year, but I'd argue Martinez's 'bad' year, and 'improvement' year were both better than Wells and Tellez. It's like you hit .240 with 11 homers or something, and then improve to .270 with 15 homers, no one really blinks, but even though Orelvis's 'bad' seasons are not as bad really as other bad seasons, the batting average is so low to make it seem like a great disaster. And I think the intuition of that is from hundreds of guys hitting .200 then being released and never making it the next step, because they are almost hitting .200 with like 14 homers, or 2 homers or whatever, and they are 23, or 25 or something. So that's it. Hitting .200 gets you eliminated. When evaluating Martinez in the group of minor league players who hit .200, the number is thousands and the failure rate probably 99.9. When evaluating him in the population of 20 year olds who hit .200 with 30 homers the population is like... 1???

Yes. It's a model that translates his minor league statistics to major league statistics and it works on average. Presumably since it's made by semi-professionals it factors in all kinds of things like park factors, age, league and level, strike-out rate, etc. I am not sure if it is smart enough to consider batted ball data, and that would not be available going back too long, so probably doesn't. I have no idea who on the board has any experience with data analysis, or machine learning, but basically it is going to use some math and optimization to come up with a formula that predicts the past performance of players with minimum error. It will predict Orelvis to do in the future, whatever all the players similar to him did in the past. It is probably very common for a 20 year that is in the upper minors, to hit in the majors just as they did in the upper minors, because even though the majors is tougher, they also have growth ahead. On the other hand a 24 year old probably lose a lot more in the majors because they aren't developing any more. There is huge variance in performance though. If you take 20 guys, these predictions will be good on average but all over the place for 1 guy. Same is true with major league stats though.

He isn't making many errors and has more assists and double plays than Vlad, and I think more putouts too. Though all of this for a first basemen is dependent on luck, pitching staff characteristics, and how good the other guys in the infield are. There is nothing in Casas' record to indicated he's making a bunch of mistakes or not making plays, making more per game than Vlad. Why do you think Vlad is treated unfairly by the system? Vlad does do the splits and makes some whale dives, maybe Casas makes those plays in a clunky blue collar fashion.

Steamer already has Orelvis projected as hitting .202 this year. Saurez hit .202 and .198 in 2020 and 2021, 2020 was a short season but he would have had 3 WAR per 162 in 2020, and was 0 WAR in 2021. So Saurez can carry a .202 if plate discipline, defense and baserunning tread water... the bad 2021 had bad everything not just average. Gallo had 3 WAR hitting .198. Saurez hit like .270 as a minor leaguer, he hit maybe 15 homers at age 20 and 21 combined, had a .417 minor slugging percentage. Orelvis is just weird and there isn't enough like him to make any conclusions. Lots of guys end up where Saurez is... lose some average but gain a lot of power in the majors, but guys that start with this kind of power and low average are pretty rare.

That's not a joke. Vlad won't hit .165, or probably even .210, but if you look at his fWAR trends, by the end of next year he could be about where Bellinger was when they released him. Similar pattern, except Bellinger was 1 or 2 more WAR every year.