Olerud363

But there are not tonnes at the game in September which is the point. I live in a lower cost of living region (sort of upstate NY), my wife and I are both professionals and since we live in a lower cost region have lots of spare money and can travel for games in the summer. However there is no way we could afford to live in Southern Ontario. All my friends are professionals and the determining factor in their ability to survive in Southern Ontario was whether they purchased a house 20 years ago. If yes they have a home and maybe some spare money. I have friends who through divorces lost their home. They remarry to other professionals earn great money, yet tell me there is no way they could get a home within 250 km of Toronto, unless they essentially wanted to have no spare money at all. This is what they tell me. Not unique to Toronto obviously. NY, Boston, Bay area in the US similar. Difference I think is that in the US there are still affordable towns 2 hours from the big cities. I don't know. Getting political here, but from what I hear people who have chosen to live not just "in Toronto" but within a 250 km radius, don't have any extra money, unless they are priviledged enough to be totally loaded, but like Computer Engineer and Teacher can't afford a house AND recreational activities like baseball games. Now if your job is 'Wall Street bro' or s*** like that you can probably afford all that stuff, but like if it regular professional, no can't afford s*** near Toronto. Just what I hear, and makes sense that the September games have lower attendance, because those of us who live in affordable places can't travel in, in September.

Ironically 2015 was the ultimate 'old school' Bill James 1987 baseball abstract, or late 90s Oakland As style team in Blue Jays history. Only team in Blue Jays history (I believe) to lead league in walks. The team was built using every strategy known to man. Old players, Young Players, trades, farm system, deadline trades, free agents. Savy waiver pickups. At the beginning the gave jobs to Osuna, Sanchez, Castro, Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins. Some failed but what a f***ing commitment to young talent. He signed a big free agent named Russell Martin - who's old school (.400 on base percentage year before) and new school (pitch framing) analytic stats were the highest ever for a Blue Jays free agent. He made a big trade for another (Donaldson) who was both an old school on base slugger and a new school defensive analytics darling. He made long term commitments to big guys who got the f*** on base (EE and Bautista) He corrected past mistakes (commitments to the track team) This is why I think AA cares, and Shapiro Atkins don't. The 2015 team was made because AA worked 22 hours a day digesting every source of baseball information and human psychology known to man, from the 1985 Bill James abstract to the Illiad to the latest proprietary analytics reports. And Shapiro the coorporate grease ball basically demeaned and fired AA. That tells you everything you need to know about Shapiro as a human being. Shapiro/Atkins now go home at 5:00 to watch Silo and Virgin River season 5 respectively while AA works, and works, and works and works and works.,

One of the stupid things going around some circles is that the Blue Jays are too 'analytical' when in fact the opposite is likely true at least with respect to other teams and how to get information to the field. That quote is everything... thanking the interns on the computers?? Obviously there is a large team collecting information, and that information get's to Snitker. Example in point, tonight we will lose with Gausman and the best pitch in baseball on the mound. That is because the interns on the computers spent the last month in the video room preparing how to recognize the pitch, and will get the information to the coach's and the players in an actionable form. So hopefully the Rangers thank the intern's for tonight's win as they essentially clinch a playoff spot.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/julio-rodriguez/23697/stats?position=OF Fully functional superstar, physically and mentally happy and healthy, performing, signed for the next 15 years. f*** SHAPIRO., THIS IS WHAT HIS f***ING JOB IS AND HE FAILED. 1. Julio Rodriquez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette are both human beings and assets for a baseball club. 2. As some people point out it is narcissistic for us to think that they are just there for our entertainment, they are human beings with their own struggles. 3. HOWEVER, that being said, the management of a baseball club has a job to develop those human beings, into healthy, happy productive adult baseball players. This duty serves the interest of both the players and the fans. 4. Shapiro has failed in this miserably and should offer his resignation after tonight's loss, which will occur because a functional baseball team, of functional baseball adults has spent the last month preparing to tell the difference between Gaussman's splitter and fastball. f*** YOU SHAPIRO YOU SOULESS, UGLY, CORPORATE PIECE OF GARBAGE THAT CARES NOTHING OF THE FANS OR THE CITY. YOU HAVE FAILED ALL OF US INCLUDING THE PLAYERS. And congratulations to the Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves for producing fully functional baseball players signed to long term contracts who will be part of the cities fabric for a generation.

AA really said that. I had his quote a bit off, but is was basically that. Are you implying that AA is lying? He f***ing cares like hell. You think Shapiro and Atkins care about things like this? Bo and Guerrero will both be gone to other teams for better or worse, maybe as soon as this off season. “I saw a lot of players leave,” Anthopoulos said. “I know what it was like that our good young players were being traded away or that they couldn’t keep them. So I think there’s a small part of me that feels from a fan base, you can buy this guy’s jersey because he’s going to be here a while.” https://www.mlb.com/news/alex-anthopoulos-on-braves-extensions

Guerrero. AA signed him and I bet AA cares more about what is happening to him than Shapiro or Atkins do. When AA signed him I think he made a good relationship with the family, and seeing Guerrero fall apart would have devastated him, and probably still does even from Atlanta. He'd be trying to figure it out from every angle. Talk to ever member of his family, every psychologist, every nutrioninist. AA would be up night and day trying to figure this out. Get Guerrero every resource to get back on track. Shapiro and Atkins? Yeah. I don't think they care. Not like AA, or Mike Elias, or David Stearns will about the Mets. Maybe I'm wrong. But just from interviews I hear on the Sirious XM I don't think they care. I think they do their jobs, perhaps competently but they aren't even fans of their own team, like AA, or David Stearns will be. What do I know? I just know what I hear on Sirious XM channel 89. I don't even have much access to fan 590.

f*** it. Zero chance they win tomorrow. Gausman is too easy to prepare for with only 2 pitches. Rangers will be f***ing prepared as hell, all watching video as we speak, probably have been watching video of Gaussman for the last month in preparation for this. Got the driveline, got the pitching machines set to splitter, fastball. They got a f***ING team of people who care watching every Gaussman start in real life. They got a team of 4 full timers and 10 interns watching all Gaussman video looking for tells. And you know why? They care. The f***ing texas rangers care. I don't believe Atkins and Shapiro give a s***. Corporate pieces of crap with no connection to the city or the team. Schneider might care. He probably does but will take the fall for this s*** (along perhaps with Atkinds). f***ing Gausman. Game over before it begins because Semien and Seager and the rest will be prepared as f***ing hell to tell the difference between fastball and splitter. f*** THIS TEAM. f*** SHAPIRO!

AA was interviewed a few months ago about all the long term contracts he signed guys too. Gave the impression he worked like hell on all of them. Mentioned that he did it because of the fans who buy jerseys, buying a jersey is a chunk of change for some people, and he wants the person to be able to watch the player on their jersey for years. Guy just sounds like he cares. And this goes back to stories about him from when he was hired by the Expos, just putting his heart into every menial task. I was hard on him when he was with the Blue Jays but looking back on it I do get the impression that he cared about his mistakes as much as the fans. I remember the 'track team' Blue Jays of 2013. The story goes AA was negotiating the Marlins trade and Beeston was at the Loblaws board meeting at the other end helping negotiate and being super-excited about the 'track team' with Jose Reyes and Bonifacio. That didn't work out, and I get the impression AA just dedicated himself night and day to figuring it out, and then for the 2015 team got Russel Martin, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders and others. Switched direction. Now somehow AA has a team hitting as a team, better than any Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .260 .330 .420, the Braves are hitting .270 .340 .500 as a team. Is this just random chance? Or is it because AA is obsessive. Spends night and day thinking about all this. Takes some personal responsibility to learn everything about the game and the latest trends, regretted being behind the curve once (in 2013) and is dedicated to working 18 hour days, being ahead of the curve, and is now ahead of the Curve on player development and hitting lab trends?

Yeah. f*** SHAPIRO! I'll be glad to see the guy gone. Empty suit who has taken all joy and passion out of this team. He doesn't give a s*** what happens. For better or worse AA cared as much as us fans. Shapiro is a godamn ugly soulless corporate suit who brought us this f***ery of a joyless team playing in a quiet empty gloomy piece of s*** stadium (even with his stupid little tweaks). f*** all of them. And f*** Gausman too, who will put us behind 5-0 probably in the first when a prepared Texas team recognizes his splitter. f*** this entire organization. Congrulations to Atlanta, Baltimore, NY Mets and others for caring about their fans and having some passion. I put the NY Mets in that category because my friend a NY Mets fan loved their trade deadline and is joyful as f*** over the Stearns hire. So happy. He and his kids have so much joy to look forward to and they are now all prospect hounds and Stearns fan boys with decades of happiness ahead.

It is a great day in the Blue Jays clubhouse a) Hitting strategists Dave Hudgins is very excited about the impending Biden impeachment and updating One America News non stop. President Mark Shapiro is done with work for the day (probably isn't near Toronto anyway) and at home streaming 'Silo' on Apple TV. c) GM Ross Atkins is done with work for the day (probably also no where near Toronto) and at home streaming Virgin River season 5. d) Since Dave Hudgins is immersed in the Biden impeachment proceedings Don Mattingly is giving the boys the hitting tips, which work if you are playing in the American League in 1985, and have 99.99999th percentile hand eye coordination but do not work if you are Dalton Varsho. e) John Schneider is looking on watching Don Mattingly give hitting tips and wondering if maybe he should chime in and explain how to hit if you are a bit chubby, but decides to let Mattingly have the room. f) Davis Schneider is looking on watching Don Mattingly give hitting tips and wondering if maybe he should chime in and explain the hitting tips he learned at "Driveline" ™ that may be more relevant for the guys with 96 percentile hand eye coordination, but also decides to let Mattingly have the room. All this and more going on right now in Blue Jays Clubhouse as the boys get their hitting strategies ready for the most important game of the year.

Because this iteration of the Jays going back to 2020 has played terrible in the most important games of the year, 2020 Wild Card, 2021 the last 3 games against the Yankees, 2022 Wild Card. Combined with playing terrible against the AL East all year it's hard to envision this team winning many big games the next two weeks. Not to say it can't happen. All this is really small sample size. There is also the impression there is just something fundamentally wrong with the team. Saw some comparison's of Seager and Julio-Rodriquez vs. Guerreros. Healthy superstar doing super-star things, vs. an obese basket case with mechanical problems that likely can't be fixed until the offseason. Kirk and Varsho in the same boat kindof. So hard to envision the team performing in a tough 2 week stretch when 3 players need an offseason of mental reset, nutrition, and swing reworks.

"hitting is not about muscle. It’s simple physics. Calculate the velocity, V, in relation to the trajectory, T, in which G, gravity, of course, remains a constant. It’s not complicated." Reminded of this last night looking at the exit velocity box score. Schneider's homer was 105 mph, 34 degrees, 422 feet. Perfection.

If they miss the playoffs I heard Shaprio will fire everyone, including himself (he will leave the renovation plans on his desk), then they will hire Mike Elias's assistant, who will trade everyone except the guys who are too fat, and he will put them on weight loss drugs until their OPS is over .900 again then trade them, then win 40 games, and 48, and 46, and draft the next 3 Jackson Holliday's then win 110. So if we need a rough 2 weeks to put in motion the 110 win 2027 Blue Jays (who will be second to Mike Elias's record setting 117 win Orioles, but at least they will make the playoffs) then I'm all for it!

No. Mariners were neck and neck with the Jays until the last series. Baltimore faded. Low point of last year was probably around Aug 29th or so after the sweep by the Angels with Baltimore and Minnesota closing in. Then the Jays went 8-2 on a 10 game road trip including 3/4 in the Baltimore freak park to get comfortably ahead and September was mostly just jockeying for WC spots.

After 145 games the 2022 Blue Jays were in WC1 with a 6 game lead for a Wild Card spot., I think there was a couple of times in August it got close last year, but by this time the Jays had the playoff spot pretty much wrapped up.

There is a counter point brought up occasionally, that the protection thing is true, because guys 'press' and hit worse under pressure sometimes. So say Jays get Aaron Judge, but him behind Guerrero, then Guerrero no longer feels pressure and is chilled and relaxed and goes from hitting .260 .330 .415 2023 form back to the .300 .400 .600 Guerrero and it is because of psychology. If true (and I'm not saying it isn't) that theme of psychology could go along way to explain almost everything else performance wise. So if pressing is a thing, then the explanation of why Baltimore, or Seattle or whoever is hitting well with guys on base, developing all their young players nicely (Julio hitting like a Julio should), why Atlanta is as a team hitting better than any single Blue Jay, could come down to these great organizations hiring the best psychologists. Like AA, and the great Mike Elias, and soon the Mets with David Stearns have teams of ace psycholagists getting all the players in the perfect frame of mind (not pressing like VGJR)

This guy might be trolling but the idea of protection is so stupid that it should be studied medically. Like there has to be something going wrong in people's brains to believe this, and whatever is going wrong, if understood, could explain other things about humans that we need to improve on. In 2003 Vernon Wells hit .320 .360 .550 with 220 hits, 33 homeruns, lots of rbis and runs In 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 he on average hit like .240 with 15 homeruns a .310 on base .420 slugging or something. In 2009 he had Adam Lind having a great year protecting him... but forgetting that for a minute. 1. Let's say there are different pitching patterns and they make guys better or worse. 2. The manager, pitcher and catcher decide on the pitching pattern based on who is coming up behind the hitter. 3. Carlos Delgado is coming up so we need to change the pitching pattern to keep Wells off base. 4. So they change the pitching pattern from the on that makes Wells a .240 .310 .410 hitter to one that makes him a .310 .360 .550 hitter 5. So with the intention of keeping Wells off base, they switch to a pattern that gets him on base more. It's just a complete malfunction in the human brain that people have believed this in the past. I realize the current guy is probably trolling, and we've had the same conversation so many times, but the idea of people believing in 'batting order protection' is interesting medically and if studied would provide some insights to all kinds of human behavior.

Not entirely true. Cone was acquired end of August 1992 after the trade deadline in a waiver deal for Jeff Kent and Ryan Thompson. I don't think Kent was super highly regarded at the time, but at the same level as maybe Schneider was before this year. Another interesting thing is Kent never played in aaa. He was called up as a utility man at age 24 after a solid but not spectacular season in aa. Then traded again in big traded twice more (part of Carlos Baerga and Matt Williams trades).

We have the best pitching in baseball but the hitting sucks is it 1997? Or 2008? Or 2023? f*** if I know. We have a young slugger hitting .310 with power and winning the silver slugger, oh... don't blink now he's hitting like .250 or so with a .410 slugging. COLLAPSE! Is it Vernon Wells? Is it Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Is it Adam Lind. I don't f***ing really know to be honest it all blurs together now. We fired John Gibbons and the new manager is a f***ing mess... Is it 2009? 2019? Who the f*** knows. We've got a nice looking young pitcher who will be part of the rotation for the next 5 years... oh wait a minute no we don't. His ERA is now 5.7 and his career is over like 3 months after getting Cy Young Votes, that was Romero right? Oh wait was it that other guy Alex... it's all a blur. OK. Now it's our year. Oh wait Tampa Bay is all of a sudden a 98 win team on the verge of a 6 year run... or is that Baltimore? Or both. f*** if I know. It's all blurring together. OK. More playoff spots, even though Tampa Bay and Baltimore are dynamite on a 60 million dollar payroll, the Yankees and Red Sox are bad... they are bad right? Oh don't worry wait 6 months and they'll both be great again with smart FO and the highest payrolls in baseball... don't believe me. You will in 6 months. f*** this team. Same thing for 30 years.

Thinking of 2006-2010 I'm reminded how Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Aaron Hill, and Adam Lind would routinely have good seasons of 5 WAR or so then follow with a 0 WAR the next year. Like hit .300 with 30 homers, than .240 with 14 homers. THEY ALL f***ING DID IT. The modern equivalent is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going from .310 with 48 homers to .260 with 20... f*** THIS ORGANIZATION and their inability to have a star perform consistently year to year. Buy a f***ing Jersey in August, by the next August the guy has collapsed to nothing. f*** YOU SHAPIRO and those who came before you.. all the fans want (well in addition to winning) is home grown stars to cheer for and watch develop, not watch collapse to 0. f*** THIS ORGANIZATION. IT IS NO DIFFERENT THAN IT WAS for the last 30 years. THE ONLY f***ING DIFFERENCE IS MORE PLAYOFF SPOTS. The last time it was competent was 1993. Since then the same f***ing s*** over and over and over. The 1997-2001 iteration was also decent and would look way better with a little luck and a little more wild cards and a little less Boston and NY being dynamite. Shapiro era is no difference than Gord Ash, Ricciardi, The Beast and AA... all the same s***, year after year. SINCE 1993 there was never been a year where the Jays were solid wire to wire. Never been a fun non-stressful year. Even 2015 they were s*** to 100 games then a miracle run.

The 2006 to 2010 teams were just as talented as either the 2013-2017 iteration or the 2020-2023 but had bad luck 1. 2006 team was great hitting wise but didn't score as many runs as they should have, and pitching was bad. 2. Somehow by 2008 with mostly the same characters they were the best pitching team in baseball but no longer scoring runs. Perhaps similar to this team in a way (improved defense but worse hitting). 3. Their pythag in 2008 was 93 wins, but they won 86. 4. There was no second wild card, let along a 3rd. 5. The Yankees and Red Sox were serious power house organizations and in 2008 TBR became TBR. 6. They traded Halladay for what turned out to be very little in 2009, but in 2010 the offense rebounded, and with Halladay they could have won that year (In one sense no one could have predicted Bautista becoming Bautista, but Adam Lind and Aaron Hill collapsed in 2010, so overall perhaps AA (who just took over) should have tried more in 2010) 7. They replaced John Gibbons with a horrible manager who was universally hated in the clubhouse and led to a toxic 2009. 2006-2010 was a mostly nice team in a lot of ways, with some bad luck, crazy good competition, and a few terrible choices, no different than the last 4 years.

Exactly. It doesn't matter if the front office and management is 'smarter' than the board members, what matters is that they are smarter than the other front offices and managers. It also matters how dedicated they are. I just saw that the Mets hired a lifetime Mets fan David Stearns as President. Do guys like Stearns, Mike Elias and AA stay up all night every night game planning, tracking player development, looking at every problem from 10 angles. Reviewing every decision, tracking every minor and major league player's health, psychology, nutrition, etc. I get the impression they do. Do Shapiro and Atkins do the same? I don't get that impression. Seem like smart enough guys but not passionate like AA, the great Mike Elias, and Stearns. If AA was here would he have let the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. situation get this far? Or the situation with Manoah? Would we have fired Gibbons and then had two sub-par managers replace him? Maybe those situations would have happened anyway. But it seems to me AA would be more worried than the board over these things. While Shaprio and Atkins go home at 5:00 and don't stress. You can be smart, but you also need passion. If the board has more passion than the front office there is an issue. What I have heard about AA is he is up all night, every night, attacking every problem from every angle, learning everything, dealing with everything, every night since he got into baseball as a letter answerer with the Expos 20 years ago.

How different would this analysis be if you did it last year this time, with Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Manoah looking good. Add in Varsho I guess. I think that combo has gone 16, 20, and now 2 WAR. Holy s*** what an implosion. Not that Bo is really the problem he's just down a bit, but a group of young players that provided 20 WAR is now at 2. 2023 has been the year of hell. Not just choking in every big game, but a core group that was expected to be all stars and perhaps super stars are nothing for a year, and long term it completely changes the outlook of the franchise. As a group they will be better next year, but their trend is gone. Regression means 20, 2, the next number is probably 10 (weight the most recent a bit more), but Jays have essentially lost their core and dimmed their future so much this year.

If you traded Vlad, Bo, Springer, Gaussman, Bassitt, Berrios, Kikuchi, Romano how long would it take to come back from that? Would any free agents want to come here after doing that?

lol. The board is dead too now. This team compared to the Anthopolous teams. We've gone from electricity, 50,000 fans, 50 pages of posts in September contention game day threads to a dead ballpark, a dead board, a low energy no excitement September. The Bo/Vlad era is over without a playoff win. Everyone knows it. By the end of the month there'll be 15,000 in the park, and less than 10 posts on the game day threads.