Olerud363

Did they really deaden the ball that much? Not as many homers as 2019 obviously but these things go up and down. Atlanta is hitting 300 homers this year. Judge, Olson, Ohtani all challenging 60. Even the failed prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. apparently hit 48 in 2021 (the year the ball first changed I think).

It's been an ongoing theme that the starters should not be removed while cruising in the 6th. I jumped in once when they took Kikuchi out in the 6th of a 2-0 game at 75 pitches, lost the game anyway using 5 relievers, blew a 7-4 lead the next day because Pearson had to be used given the other relievers were tired and later on that road trip lost a 7-3 lead in the 9th because everybody was burnt out (including Swanson) and they actually had to use White in that same game in super high leverage. OK. So what I am trying to get at is they are probably (like most teams) using analytics to calculate when to remove the starter, and most times 6th inning apr. 90 pitches is about right considering 3rd time through the order numbers, considering starters health etc. However there are occasionally times where you have to push the starter a bit more given upcoming schedule, bullpen fatigue, etc. So a pretty nuanced issue, but the board doesn't have much nuance, always getting pissed when the pitcher is removed 'early' instead of just getting pissed at the odd time it was the wrong move.

Compare it to the Orioles who sent Tyler Wells down with superficial numbers (3.80 ERA almost 9 Ks per inning) that look fine, and Bryan Baker too who looks fine. Honestly not sure what the story is... especially with Tyler Wells. Numbers game? Working on things? Some attitude thing that they are keeping in house? Whatever it is these guys are at least down in the minors putting their work in. I guess in Baker's case it's just typical releiver movement when everyone is healthy, he is good but not great. Wells is (outwardly) a little stranger. A guy whos numbers look good for a starter, for a team that needs starters, but sent down anyway.

From a stats-scouting perspective not much. Seems like he is fast but has no power. And not 'no power' like Howritz or Roden but has no doubles power, isolated slugging is .060 or something, bb/k is bad (30/90), average is bad. k/bb to me is important. If he had an awesome k/bb but bad numbers maybe there is an adjustment that could be made to hit the the ball harder (strike out more hit ball hard), but don't see that here.

All Road Parks - .282 .355 .474 Rogers Center - .258 .329 .446 TD Ballpark - .410 .529 .897 Sahelen - .329 .398 .656 AA (age 19) - .402 .449 .671 AAA (age 19/20) - .343 .420 .593 The park factors of all the minor league stadiums should be well known so you can figure out what advantage they gave him. The differences in numbers between Rogers center and the other home fields are so great that they can not be explained by park factors. There is something else going on here. 1. As a minor league hitter he is hall fame level 2. As a major league hitter in mainor league parks he is hall of fame level 3. As a major league hitter on the road he is good 4. As a major leage hitter at home in Rogers center is is OK, but not good given position.

Sort of related but I had thought the new dimensions would provide all kinds of interesting moments, like high fly balls just getting over the shorter walls, or line drives (that would have been homers last year) becoming singles off the wall... but those moments have been few and far between, like it seems the offense is so boring they aren't attacking the new walls at all.

This is headed for such a nut-crunching outcome for Jays fans. Best case scenario is kind of he finds it next year and they can get value for him. There is probably some chance he never finds it for the Jays but becomes David Ortiz for the Red Sox or something. At this point I can't see any scenario there is a long term successful pairing between Jays and Vlad. No way either side wants to look at a long term contract after this mess of a year. Good year next year and likely still no way either side wants to risk it, Jays won't want to risk Vlad turning back to a pumpkin, Vlad's team won't want to risk signing a below value deal if he truly has regained it.

More or less Vlad and Chapman are the exact same guy this year hitting. On one hand it is fine for Chapman because it is an improvement on a horrible 2021 and so/so 2022, it is horrible for Vlad because it is 5 hitting WAR or so below his 2021. I guess for Chapman at least he isn't hitting .200 anymore... on the other hand Chapman seems like a guy who has 40 homer EVs and man strength.

Yeah realistically. Where was Todd Frazier as a minor leaguer (looks it up). Was in Rookie ball as a 21 year old, didn't reach aaa until 23, had less power, never hit 20 homeruns in the minors. Hit .280 in the minors. Hit .230 with a 40 home run year in the majors. Orelvis is coming at this from the opposite direction as Frazier. If there was a guy that started young, had massive power, had fluky low batting averages, and was destined to become a super star because his averages were both fluky and a couple of adjustments and a bit of experience away from improving a lot... that guy would look like Martinez. Not saying Martinez is that guy, or that guy has even existed but if ever the baseball gods wanted justice they would do this... 1. We will first them Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a .400 hitter in double a, and he will end up a .260 0 WAR guy in 160 games at age 24, it will be funny. 2. Then we will give them Overlvis Martinez, a .200 hitter in double a, and he will end up a .260 5 WAR guy in 160 games at age 24, because the .200 was fluke, the massive power, some walks, and the ability to play defense and base running at a neutral level.

I guess on the other side you could argue you need coach's who can reach Vlad and the other 2 and do everything they can to address their fitness and fix what are obviously mechanical problems for all 3. You could move on from those players instead if no one can reach them, but who determines that? Maybe Rogers just wants another group to work with them. Without considering spray Vlad's batted ball data looks fine, but I saw LTBF posted a breakdown. Vlad's pull ground ball rate seems really high and I don't see how he'll ever be a good hitter with that breakdown. If he pull's a lot of hard ground balls, hit's a lot of flyballs 380 to 390 to center, and then hit's some popup to short left with a launch angle of 40, I bet his xwOBA and average launch angle looks great and the spray angles look great and the xwOBA looks great. But if the launch angle spray pattern isn't just a fluke his real wOBA is deserved.

Aaron Judge was a .270 .370 .470 hitter in the minors and a .280 .390 .590 in the majors (or so) I was thinking of that because there is another thread pondering whether the Yankees are done for the next 10 years, or whether 3 young players will just massively out-perform their minor league stats (it's the Yankees). I really hope Orelivis is that guy for the Jays. Will end up a .240 .330 .480 minor hitter (assuming they don't let him destroy Buffalo for several months) would be great if he is our Judge.. not necessarilly 'as good as judge' but just a guy that hits the ball 450 feet and out performs his minor numbers... I guess that would make him as good as Judge... well probably not he won't get on base quite as much and who knows about the defense.

He is going to get 2.5 WAR with a .210 average... the average is probably fluke. This is likely a very good player. Jason Dominquez also looks weak but is probably fine too, just young for the level. Next year it will could be obvious these guys are super stars and the Yankees don't miss a beat.

Last time they looked like this it took like this was August 2016, by April 2017 they were contenders again because Judge went from OK prospect struggling to hit MLB pitching to 8 WAR guy in a blink, and Sanchez, Severino and a few others had best case outcomes (Torres joined in 2018). Logically it is unlikely this will repeat with Volpe and Jason Dominquez looking not too special, but it will totally happen because these are the Yankees and their development will be in the 97th percentile outcome just like it was for Judge.

Problem is in the very same year that the Jays missed the playoffs with a 940 - 500 run differential and 114-48 expected record Alex Anthopolous won the world series with an 82 win braves team with an expected record of 74 and 88. After Acuna broke his leg or something and the other outfielders broke their wrists or were hitting .180 or something, AA somehow got an entire new outfield at the trade deadline instead of getting Brad Hand. After Mike Elias's big aquisition, Jack Flaherty gave up 14 earned runs tonight, I have demoted him and raised AA to the number one position based on his 2021 trade deadline. I am sure AA was calling his mentor Paul 'the beast' Beaston the entire time while negotiating the deals for these outfielders. Calling 'the beast' he was, but luckilly 'the beast' was in the Loblaws board meeting and couldn't answer the phone, or else he would have convinced AA to trade for a track team instead of sluggers like Jorge Solar and Joc Pederson.

He's getting bombed tonight but before that was fine. Blue Jays message board special announcement - The Baltimore Orioles are 3 games ahead in the AL East and 8 games ahead of our loved Blue Jays on a 60 million dollar payroll. This is entirely just a fluke and if Rogers Communications was as deranged as Peter Angelos's kid, and made the boys to lose in 2020 and then reduced the payroll from 230 million to 60 million we'd be that good too. The Orioles got lucky in that their good prospects seem to hit the ground running and aren't obese thus their window will be a decade or so and they don't have pressure so can take risks on un-heralded players. Given the rate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is collapsing to sub-replacement the window might be over in a matter of weeks, thus the Jays need to spend even more money and prospect capitol to get some players who can help us make the 3rd wild card and god willing win a playoff game. But be asssured if the Jays had as bright as future as the Orioles they'd take more risks and look for savy aquisitions too. And ha-ha... Fuji guy walked 3... Flaherty had a bad game... (guess what Orioles believe in these and they'll be back and be fine).

1. Mike Elias (tie 2) Anthopoulos, Branch Rickey Anthopoulos is like, OK. Trade for Brand Hand, I'm Anthopoulos I can talk anybody into being good with my jabber... I can talk any 22 year old legend into signing a 10 year 80 million dollar contract... Hey Hand... your good. Hey Jose Bautista I know the old GM Richy Riccardi or someone traded for you, but your my guy now. Your good. Hey Matt Olson, you know 30 homerun guy, did you ever think to try for 60 like 'the judge'. I'm AA I got the gift of jabber. I learned it from the beast. Hey little 22 year old with 7 WAR, did you know how much 7 WAR a year is worth? I bet it's millions so I'll give you millions, like 8 millions a year. Wait what. Mike Elias traded for some Japanese guy who kept getting sent to the Japanese minor leagues every year (it's true look it up) and has an 8.00 ERA and walks 10 per 9, and hits guys with 105 and will kill someone probably.. you go Mike Elias, you are on another level, even I couldn't jabber that guy into being good.

Hello. I am from the future. What if I told you this is as good as it gets?? Don't be sad. There is more to life than baseball. There is television too, though in the future the television writers and actors are on strike so I do not know when the television show will come back. 1. Do you like Seattle? Do you like how they won 90 games with like a bad run differential. Do you like 8-1 leads? OK I am being a bit weirdly cryptic but I don't want to give too much away. 2. Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr your favorite player are you excited to see him keep it up next year now that real Vladdy has arrived? ha ha... I was excited too. 3. It is pretty fun beating the crap out of the Baltimore Orioles isn't it? So when they expand the playoffs the Jays can beat them up lots and lots and when Jays, Sox, Rays, and Yanks win 90 again no one will get left out... OK maybe in 2027 or something the Orioles will be good... right... it won't be until 2027. Takes time to build you know (smirk, chuckle). 4. Do you like that homerun jacket? It is pretty fun isn't it. I bet that will be a traditional that lasts a generation. 5. OK Kirk, Vladdy and Manoah are kind of big, big men. Will that catch up to them? What if all three combined for 1 WAR when they are old? That won't happen until like 2035 though so no need to worry and they will have a drug for fatness then (ironically they get a drug for fatness in like 14 months from now... but also... naaaah I won't tell you). The future is bright, don't be sad, the Jays will win lots of playoff games in the future so much to look forward to.

And remember how they pulled the one rabbit -- traded their closer last year when they were on the verge of contention How many teams would do that when at the time 2 or 3 games out of a WC. Not "the best performance ever seen" (need to wait 5 years to see what happens) but moves for better or worse are rarely seen.

I'm not referring to just the bullpen when I say the Orioles are 'like nothing every seen". Perhaps I'm being a bit dramatic... however you rarely see a team with this kind of dedication to their internal evaluations Another example is that they just sent Tyler Wells down for a couple of weeks when he was 8-7 3.80. His fWAR and peripherals were shake though and he needed to work on things. You rarely see a guy having those kinds of classical stats sent down.

"anything ever seen". I'm not referring to the result of their bullpen, just the Fujinami experiment and their dedication to the process. It may blow up on them, but neither the Yankees nor the Rays of the last 10 years would throw a guy like Fujinami into leverage. I believe Fujinami hit 2 and walked 1 in Toronto, a few days later was thrown into a 2-0 game and pitched a clean inning, next game walked 3 and was horrible, next game was in to get a save with a clean inning. Like I am sure if some guy with Fuji's walk rate and 8.00 ERA was Toronto's big acquisition and put into leverage the fans would go nuts. Who will have better numbers at the end of the year (for their new teams) Fuji or Hicks? It's random I guess, just 20 reliever innings.

Tough one here. Jays bullpen isn't bad actually but watching the Orioles develop guys out of no where while Atkins trades 2 good pitching prospects for Hicks make you think... Anyone doubting that this is just some fluke or luck on the Orioles part should be watching the Fujinami situation. He throws 104. He was free. He has had some dominant outings for the Orioles. He has had some catastrophic outings, like walking and hitting everyone. He is terrible, then the Orioles throw him back out there 2 days later in tight leverage. Fujinami may fail, he may become another Bautista, but this is the Orioles process. It isn't fluke. What they are doing is above and beyond anything ever seen.

There is a huge amount of evidence that he hits f***ing hall of fame level in minor league parks and almost replacement level in major league parks. His performances as teenager in minor league parks in the real minor leagues are historic, greatest we've ever seen, there's never been anything like. He hit .400 in aa for christ's sakes. He damaged low a and high a as an 18 year old. His performance in minor league parks as a major leaguer is also f***ing unbelievable. Frank Thomas in his prime with more power. Albert Pujols in his MVP season. He's like a f***ing .340 .440 .700 hitter or something in Sahlen and Dunnedin. And it's nothing to do with the dimensions. If AA was still in charge I feel he'd dedicate incredible resources to solving the mystery of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Maybe it is a mental block or anxiety that he gets with the big crowds and the two decks. When he chilled and relaxed in the minor parks his numbers indicate he is one of the greatest of all time, otherwise he is Josh Bell's weakling brother sub-replacement, Eric Hosmer (not young Eric Hosmer but old).

Poor Vladdy. At one point he was battling Tristan Cassas and Ryan Noda for the 25th best 1st basemen in baseball trying to get above 1 WAR. But they have both left him in the dust on their way to 2 WAR with Vladding stuck near 0. Good news is Hosmer is at -0.5 or so WAR, so if Vladdy can just keep his head above of water, keep around 0 WAR, even though he has no chance to crack the top 30 1b men, or battle Casas and Noda, he can beat Hosmer as long as he doesn't dip drastically negative.

Minor league parks aren't smaller, Dunnedin and Buffalo are pretty generic dimensions Maybe something psychological though... he has hit like a legend in minor league parks (in both the minors and majors) so maybe something about the 2 decks is getting in his head.

Vlad and Freeman both started at 20 and will end being very similar through age 24, same counting stats, close WAR (Freeman ahead a bit), same games played but different stories. As a minor league hitter Freeman was good but not legendary, cup of coffee at 20, full year in at 21 where had a Vlad 'bad' year, average hitting with bad base running and defense making him near replacement. Then he started just getting better every year, walk rate, base running, defense, average all got better. Vlad is all over the place alternating years of legendary performance with replacement level. Defense was bad and got worse. The legend year at 22, but then basically returning to his age 20 season. After this year, age 24 they should show up as very close on those matching systems.