Olerud363

You are a pretty well adjusted fan but many others, myself included, aren't. A lot of casuals don't care about the battle for the wild card spot. A lot of die hards are getting burnt out on this team because of all the disappointment amid super high expectations. I am sure some of us posters seem crazy, but in the last couple of years I know I've heard even a lot of the good posters, saying they needed to take a few games off because this team is driving them nuts.

You sometimes wonder how much the lack of big moments and the mediocre performance in big moments will affect attendance of this winning cycle compared to 2015 to 2016. In 2015 in the September series against the Yankees it was unbelievable. "Russell! Russel! Russel!". Even the game they lost I believe Dioner hit a dramatic game tying homerun. Stroman out there like a boss. Then the 2015 playoff series. The 2016 wild card games. 2016 Game 3 Division Series, with all the drama around Odor vs Bautista, and Odor makes a bad throw and Donaldson the alpha scores from second. In 2021 big series against the Yankees in September and they lose 2/3 and miss the playoffs. Cy Young candidate Ray gives up bombs when we need him. 2022 Wild card, enough said. Then this years Canada Day series. Getting swept by the Red Sox on biggest weekend of the summer? I was at the 3rd game and it was a low energy mausoleum even though it was a close game. There is just sometimes 0 faith that this team can win a big game or a big series. I turned it off when Kiemaier got caught at home. Seemed it was the game and the series right there. I can't believe I am saying this but I don't even know how much of the next 3 games I'm going to watch. 0 faith in this team compared to 2015/16. Anything can happen but always seems this team disappoints in the big moments and the fans are sort of conceding that now.

Overall the attendance is fine, going to get close to 3 million if not just over. Among many fans however there isn't a huge amount of excitement about a battle for the last playoff spot as compared to the battles for a division title. In 2015 and 2016, when the Jays were contending for the division there was huge excitement in September and sold out crowds even on weekdays. So in a way nice job on Shaprio to keep summer attendance up. However September attendance being mediocre (as compared to 2015 and 16) is also on him. #of Days the 2020-2023 Blue Jays have been in contention for a division title = 0 #of Days the 2020-2023 Blue Jays have been in first after April 10th = 0? I don't know if the second statement is true. However despite 3 straight years of solid teams they've been eliminated from the division in like May every year because of hot starts by the other teams. Be interesting to see Baltimores attendance next year, after a full year of contending for a Divsion and making the playoffs with ease. This year Baltimore attendance is horrible given their performance. Toronto would sell out every game if contending for a division.

Alek must be super stupid or something. He has performed before so should be possible to get himself straightened out and back on track for a big payday. Instead he is potentially torpedoing his career over 6 weeks service time or something (if that is indeed what is happening, certainly sounds like he is filing a grievance or something thinking he is injured not sucky).

Yeah. And Mitch White working hard. Taking advice. Being humble. Not saying much. Listening. Good attitude. Now Mitch apparently throws 97 and is doing great in a f***ing bizarre International league were the average OPS is .950 or something with Clement and Lukes hitting like Larry Walker in Coors.

Less of a worry than last year. Maybe Biggio or Varsho wins the game with the 340 foot pop up and Ryan Mountcastle hits the 410 foot out. What a weird park, 2/3 of it are still normal so like it's almost easier to hit a homerun to center than parts of left.

The thing I'd be worried about in Camden is that Jays right handed power has a good game and hit's 410 foot bombs caught at the freak wall, and Adam Frazier wins the game with a 341 foot, 91 mph exit V homerun down the line in right.

I also am assuming Angelos son is just bullshitting about being cheap. I believe the Orioles, even at their worst were outdrawing the Rays. That being said their attendance isn't that impressive for a division winning year when they've held a playoff spot the entire year. In the 90s their market was drawing 3.5 million +. In their last up cycle 2.5 million. This year they don't look like they'll get 2 million.

This current team is not a product of 5 straight years of losing because the players acquired from losing years 3-5 haven't even arrived yet (Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad). So they built a nice 90 win team mostly other ways, are probably going to win 100 because of luck, and now have the best prospect in baseball who will be ready in the next year and might have another generational prospect forming in Basallo. Just heard Basallo is now moving to AA. AA in his age 18 season (turned 19 a couple of weeks ago). Numbers are psychotic in A+. I am guessing he won't be a catcher long term right? I mean that would be crazy. Just let him be Carlos Delgado, without f***ing around with the catching thing wasting the first 2 years of his career.

You are a f***ing idiot. 1. Samuel Basallo is an actual baseball prospect. 2. He was 18 years old for most of this season, just turned 19. 3. He is now 'arguably' better than Guerrero at the same age showing more power. The fact of the matter is the Orioles just out of no where came up with a prospect as good as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was as a prospect. I don't like this. I'm not cheering it. I'm just reporitng it. If you don't like it don't f***ing complain to me. Write a letter to Blue Jays management and ask them to improve and learn from what the Orioles are doing. Charlie Montoya and Brandon Hyde are real people. Real things have happened to them. They've lived lives and held and lost jobs. The Mike Elias regime has hired one Manager. His name is Brandon Hyde. He has held the job throughout their entire rebuild and now build cycle. The Blue Jays had John Gibbons, then Charlie Montoya, now John Scneider, who may be replaced again if they don't make the playoffs. These are real things that happened. Orioles have stability in the manager position and seem to have done a competent job search in late 2018... The Jays are a mess here. DON'T COMPLAIN TO ME IF YOU DON'T like it. Write Rogers and complain.

I've never made a prediction that the Orioles will win the World Series. Even great teams might go decades without winning the world series. Rays have never won, Dodgers have never won, except the Covid season, since 1988. However a fair starting point is post 2016 and it will be interesting to compare the Jays and Orioles from 2016 to 2030. That's a long time sure, but the Orioles are attempting to build the mythical sustainable winner (as the Jays claimed they were). Orioles did a deeper down cycle, and whether by luck or intention the two last years of their down cycle were done during Covid years. Here are some metrics to look between the Orioles and Jays from 2017-2030 1. Number of losing seasons (so far Jays 3, Orioles 5) 2. Number of losing seasons pro-rated to games played (Jays 3, Orioles 4.4) 3. Number of losing seasons pro-rated to attendance restrictions(Jays 3, Orioles about 3.3) 4. Number of 90 win seasons Jays 2, Orioles 0 (could change today). 5. Number of division titles (Jays 0, Orioles 0 (could change end of month)). 6. Number of playoff wins (Jays 0, Orioles 0) (could change October). 7. Number of days in 1st place after June 1st (Orioles 30 or so... Jays 0) 8. Number of consecutive winning seasons (Jays 3 (should change soon), Orioles 2) How is all this shaping to look in 2030? Would you trade 1.3 losing seasons with Attendance restrictions, in return for being set up how the Orioles are now? The stupid narrative of '5 losing seasons bro' ignores that it was 4.35 losing seasons, and only 3 normal losing seasons (which the Jays also had losing seasons those years).

Imagine Bo and Vlad showing up AFTER the Jays had won 100 games. Imagine they are both a little bit better. Imagine instead of a suit in Shaprio and a yes-man in Atkins you have Mike Elias and a team of nutritionists, psychologists, and a legit high performance team to guide them a long. Imagine instead of Charlie Montoya you have Brandon Hyde. An alpha, hired the same month as Charlie Montoya, but never fired, a true kind, tough human being who has taken the Orioles from a 50 win season to 100, with no need for talk of other manager, and will now help develop Jackson and Basillo into greats.

I think a lot of people are in denial. 1. The Blue Jays once had the greatest hitting prospect of all time (or close) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2. For reasons of Obesity and perhaps psychology, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. failed to live up to expectations. 3. The Baltimore Orioles have a prospect with better stats than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at age 18. 4. His name is Samuel Basallo, no one is talking about him yet. He is ranked 5th in their organization. 5. That will change obviously. When Holliday graduates Basallo has a good chance be the number 1 prospect in baseball (or close). I don't like the Baltimore Orioles, but denying what is happening here doesn't help anyone. On top of everything else, Orioles have quietly developed a prospect better than the Jays greatest prospect ever. And it's no one notices because he's their 4th 1 overall caliber prospect (Rutchman, Henderson, Holliday, Basallo), along side a bunch of other nice prospects. Is anyone paying attention to this?

The narrative that the Orioles are a product of 5 straight losing seasons is both stupidly wrong for the present but has implications for the future that this could be one of the greatest baseball organizations of all time. It is stupidly wrong because no player drafted after 2019 is even making much of a contribution. Henderson, Rutchmann and Grayson Rodriquez were from the 2019 draft (2018 for Grayson). So this Orioles team could have been built with 2 losing seasons. All the other contributers are like 27 year olds like Satlander, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Bradish, Kremer, drafted a while ago. So this team has nothing to do with the 2019-2021 losing seasons. Now you see why the people who are trying to diss the Orioles (just a product of 5 losing seasons bro!) are actually making the point that they could be on a run of many 100 win seasons. The f***ing talent from the 3rd through 5th losing seasons hasn't even shown up yet. That being said this year is pretty lucky. A 90 win talent team that will win 100. Next year with some development by Rodriquez and contributions by the 2020 through 2022 draft classes they could win 100 deservedly.

I didn't read the weird back spring article, but there is nothing too weird in the batted ball data. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 57 7 Double 97.9 22 367 99.4 .330 0/30 Last night's double was 97.9 22 degrees, for him he just missed it. Maybe that goes a little farther with different spin but the issue is still combining his top end exit-V with a 27 degree launch angle. Doesn't do that much. I checked his entire year of game logs yesterday and he's not hitting a bunch of 380 foot fly ball outs. The problem is way less long fly balls, half as much as 2021.

Not the basketball thread but 1. The Raptors that year beat the Gianiss Bucks who were the best regular season team in Basketball. 2. The Raptors were a better team by May of 2019 then we knew. Hypothetically say you could put together Leonard, Siakam, Fred Van Vleet, Lawrie, Gassol, Norm Powell, Ibanka, and Danny Green all towards their primes? How good of a team is that? From the perspective of May 2019 we didn't know exactly how good VanVleet, Siakam and Powell were, so the team seemed light compared to Golden State, but in retrospect that was a great collection of talent.

So basically my first theory about Vlad hitting 385 foot fly balls to center all the time is completely stupid and wrong, he actually hardly hits 380 foot flyballs at all, like at half the rate of his former self.

Vlad has 100 less strike-outs than Teoscar yet they have the same wRC+. Luck? Teoscar is hitting more long fly balls. Then compare Vlad21 to Vlad23 the difference is insane. If it is luck it like -- guys can go from 35 400 foot fly balls to 16 just by random luck in the launch angle.... Hit over 400 feet - Teoscar leads 20-16 Hit over 380 feet - Teoscar leads 30-26 Hit over 360 feet - Teoscar leads 46-41 Hit over 300 feet - Tied at 102 Hit over 200 feet - Vlad leads 183 to 167 Hit over 100 feet - Vlad leads 249 to 226 Hit over 0 feet - Vlad leads 448 to 369 This brings up another question. How the f*** does a guy who hit 48 homers 2 years go only have 41 hits over 360 feet this year? Vlad 23 vs Vlad 21 (season has 20 games or left so Vlad 23 can add to his totals still) Hits over 400 feet Vlad21 35-16 Hits over 380 feet Vlad21 53-26 Hits over 360 feet Vlad21 72-41

Interesting. I thought about that and was scanning the exit velocity box scores but at first glance Vlad's distances did make sense. A lot of times he was hitting balls at like 100-105, 18-22 degress, to center, and they were being caught. Other plays would hit the same exit-v, but at 27 degrees and they'd be 420 foot homeruns.

How is this even possible? Vlad has a bb/k of like 58/85 Teoscar 31/178 Vlad has literally put 100 more balls in play and walked twice as much and yet the outcomes are the same. Scanning fangraphs Vlad actually pulls the ball more, their hard hit rates are similar and the only significant difference is ground ball rate (Vlad 47 Teoscar 41). The ground ball rate explains some of it but it has to be spray angle on fly balls that explains the whole thing. Need to start including spray angle in the stats, and list spray angle on ground balls and fly balls separately. The board has talked about this endlessly but it seems like the explanation has to be Vlad is just hitting an insane number of 388 foot fly balls to center and while he 'pull dat ball' on the ground he can't pull it in the air, and needs a swing overhall.

Expected Average on this day .750 Expected Slugging on this day 2.000 Actual Average .250 Actual Slugging .250 Outs made 5 (including the double play and a base running error)

Proper swing path leads to launch angle. 103 mph at 30 degrees is like a 430 foot 1.000 expected average 4.000 expected slugging 103 mph at 20 degrees is like a 380 foot 0.600 expected average, way less slugging. And considering that Vlad also has a bad spray angle I bet the true expected average on his batted balls isn't that high. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Pick a day, any day At bat 1. Hard ground ball 109 mph, double play At bat 2. 103 mph 388 foot fly ball out to center At bat 3. 114 mph 16 degree single off the wall At bat 4. Strike out swinging at 3 breaking balls off the plate.

Is there evidence his fly balls at the same exit velocity are going less distance? Seems like the issue is that he is not pulling the ball and the higher the launch angle the less the exit velocity. He hit's the ball at 110+ mostly on the ground or low launch angle. It seems he hits a tonne of balls between 100 and 105, 20-25 degrees, to center. My understanding is the hit probablities of batted balls still don't consider spray angle, thus Vladdy is over-rated by exit V. Would be be nice to see the expected results formulas evolve to consider spray angle.

Yeah launch angle and spray angle. In the 8th there Vladdy hit it at 103, 21 degrees just left of center 388 feet for an out. Schneider hit it at 100, 27 degrees straight left, 393 for a homer Vladdy must have the most hard hit outs to the warning track in center in baseball.

lol.