Olerud363

It is now June 25th. In only 3 weeks my scenario has gone from hypothetical to "on track" 3 weeks ago Lawrie was nobody, now he is on track for the .280 20 homer season 3 weeks ago Gravemen was garbage but is turning it around 3 weeks ago Josh Donaldson was Mike Schmidt in his prime, now he is merely very good. Things change fast. Billy Beane is not stupid 3 weeks ago... AA had 1 genius trade ripping off the great Billy Beane. 3 weeks ago AA- pure genius (for the one trade) today - the trade is looking more even.

Most playoff teams are in the top half in offense and pitching. But where they are in the top half doesn't matter. It's not like the top pitching team always wins. San Francisco was 7th in pitching last year. 5th in offense. Which is weird. One thinks of them as a pitching team. Adjusted for park Giants are below average in pitching, above average in hitting, they were in 2012 as well. Bumgarner is looked at as a legend... adjusted for park he is above average guy but gets upped to "super stud star" based on being in the right place at right time.

******** -- Twins 87, Jays 93, Cards 2006. Even Giants 2012 did not have great pitching. High offense lower pitching teams can win the world series. Teams can luck into a world series. Teams can luck out of the playoffs.

The road to disaster is Travis can't come back, Ryan Goins is there every day, a bunch of other s***** injuries hit and Pillar tanks. Otherwise everything will be great.

My guess is the Jays play close to their pythagorean the rest of the way. If Travis comes back healthy and the rest of the guys stay healthy the Jays make the playoffs. No question. I am usually very pessimistic but given health this team will do it. No question. Hutch and the shitballers will pitch to 4 or era and that will be enough with the offense. Sanchez will comeback, Stroman will to believe it or not.

Let me say this Tampa Bay has never had a .600 pythagorean. They had .590 twice (2008 and 2010) and made the playoffs, they were very good those years. The New York Yankees have had a .600 pythagorean 4 or so times in the last 20 years. Each year they were 100 win team or close. They have had close to .600 many years in the last couple decades. In recent years their pythagorean has dipped closer to .500. Their teams are mediocre. The baltimore Orioles. One must go back to the Jimmy Carter years to find a .600 pythag. They won 100 games those years. The Boston Red Sox have had .600 pythagoran 3 times the last 15 years. Two of those years they were world series champions. One of those years they won 93 but missed the playoffs. It was tough that year. Bad luck in terms of outcomes (wins) and the fact the wild card was tough that year.

It absolutey means the Jays are a good team. If they have a .600 pythagoran they are a good team. Take all the teams in baseball history with a .600 pythagorean. They are all good teams. Every one of them. I would venture to say that even the ones that didn't contend for some odd reason were very good in a preceeding or proceeding year.

Here is a statement. I am on the record now. If Jays continue with .600 pythagoran they will make the playoffs.

Good teams have a .550 pythagoran for 5-7 years. Some years the luck hits (both regular season and playoffs), some years it doesn't. See "Toronto Blue Jays 85-93" I am sorry for this but if the Jays have a .600 pythagoran this year and don't make the playoffs it is luck. If they don't make the playoffs in the next 5 years it is because they did not design a team to have a multiple year run. If they have a .550 pythagaran for 5 years they will "likely" make playoffs 3/5 years.

Pat Hentgen won a cy young in a league with mid career Roger Clemens/Randy Johnson in the league. Syndergard will likely not have a season better then Scherzer and Kershaw at their best, but He could easily win 20 and get a Cy Young in a year where Kershaw doesn't have a 1.44 era Kershaw 11-8 2.44 little injury Syndergaard 22-5 2.87 lots of run support (ok, not sure how any near term incarnation of Mets gets him run support.. maybe Jays collapse, new prez gives Mets Donaldson) Why do we so many posters say things that aren't true, and are easy to prove aren't true?? Kershaw and Scherzer won't prevent others from winning Cy's if Clemens and Johnson didn't. Pat Hentgen won a cy young in a league with mid career Roger Clemens/Randy Johnson

What if Rays computers are full of valueable info like whether Danny Barnes or some such would translate to good reliever?? Like how Matt Boyd will actually translate as starter and/or reliever?? Like what if it contains info on all kinds of hidden gems in other oranizations that we should target. 1. Find good hacker. Maybe he hacked his Sister's friends (>25 years old) pictures, or maybe he didn't, but he is good at hacking. 2. Hack Rays computers to find good pitchers. It is also a not so clever play on words Beeston (interviewing C.S. kid) - So you hacked your sister's friends pictures.. very good. We need you to hack our friends computers for pitchers too.. it is spelt differently but not so different we think.. we need you to do this for the good of our business.

I didn't admit to this. I like computers but I don't know how to hack. There are a lot of people on this board. Some of them might know how to hack. Some of them might not be good enough to do celebrity nude hack, but may be able to do sister friend's hack. Like they are 22 and just graduated from McMaster with C.S. degree. And their Sister is 26, and her friend is 28. It is just hypothetical, but I just want to be clear that I am not advocating some kid, like 14 hack his 11 year old sister's friends phone. The main point is we need pitchers. Rays are good and finding pitchers seemingly from nowhere. Hacking seems to be in style these days. Why not get on board with it for now until they totally crack down. Offense is fine. Don't mess with offense. Hack Rays computers to find out how to produce pitchers from nothing.

this is the most dangerous statement on the board I have ever seen. Keep in mind guys like Beeston and AA could easily be influenced by Cito with s*** like this. Perhaps reality - You cannot build a contender 1st in runs, 14th in era, even if the team scores so many runs that pythagoran is very good. This is because many of those runs will be add-ons against bad pitching. (not sure if this is true not, but perhaps reasonable to investigate) Reality - get some average pitchers in... the best way to fix a team that is 14th in pitching Complain about pitching, complain again, complain again and again and say: "This is a historic offense, the best I have seen relative to league, please people get some pitchers, any pitchers, hack the Rays computers if you have to, and figure out how they get pitchers, I will help, I like computers and hacked my sisters friends phone for nude photos."

This statement scares me a bit because knowing the Jays they will think they need more speed, more clutch, more rbis and less walks. More Ryan Goins maybe. Why frame it like this?? Why say "you cannot build a contender based around offense?". Why not say -- "You cannot build a contender around a pitching staff that is second last in ERA". This addresses the problem directly. You make it seem as if the offense is the problem. The problem is the pitching, and Maybe Reye's defense. Both should be solved without decreasing the offense.

Also - I think somebody tracked down Moogy's Japanese porn review site... I didn't totally understand that part.

I am often to wordy so I will try to summarize it for you as briefly as possible. Summary: Moogy causes s*** with with everybody as ussual... nothing to see here. Then, in a shocking plot twist Box-car apparently joins Moogy. Moogy - BoxCar join the dark side, by the way I am your Father. BoxCar - Yes Dad That is the only explanation I have for what happened on this thread.

Looked him up on twitter... said he got accepted into fire academy... sounds like a good guy

Well that would be 10000 a year for each of them... You'd need a few projects in that range to make a living.... And if he Stoeten is making 50 grand a more a year, working 5 hours a week... well that fits the theory. He'd have all the time in the world to be Moogie.

So one theory that was going around a while ago is that Moogy/Copperweld is really Stoeten trolling us... So there's that. hmmmm.... Stoeten = some fat hipster dude who formally worked for Sportsnet (edit I think it was "the score") website (which as we all know was not affiliated with Rogers)... whatever Stoeten's weakness... his strength was the ability to quickly rip off wordy arrogant, web blogs, often with the punchline "so there's that" Stoeten is currently employed on some sort of contract basis with various entities and runs his own site (named after himself). If anybody would have the time to nurture and maintain the Moogy personality it would be Stoeten. He also has motivation since so many on this board make fun of him. (edit) Also this board probably took a lot of his traffic, as a place for Jays to hang out, so we hurt his livelihood. So there's that!

I find it hard to believe Moogy is able to type out all this crap on a hand-held. And he's been at it all morning. Has he been commuting all morning?? I am now picturing Moogy living in an executive cottage in the thousands islands area... he has a 3 and half hour commute every morning to down town Toronto, which he takes by private limousine, posting on Blue Jays Message Board all morning. Anybody ever see that "Girl with the Dragon Tatoo" movie or read the book?? I picture Moogy like the bad guy in that film... executive cottage with a little dungeon for his lady friends.

AA is a good example of how "COO" types normally act. If you listen to AAs interviews he is very non threatening, friendly, not all that concise admittedly, but very positive to everybody... AA - "Admittedly Dickey hasn't pitched as well as we hope, but at the time we acquired him it was an opportunity to acquire a Cy Young Winner, Paul supported the decision, the Scouts supported the decision, I signed off on the decision, the fans supported the decision at the time, Rogers supported it. And I understand that 3 years later the fans are frustrated, I feel for them, but Dickey is going to give us 200 innings, there are no guarentees a young player can do that, I understand what the fans are going through, but the teams 2 games out of first, lets see how it plays out." Complimentary to everybody, non threatening. -- that's part of how these types get ahead.

Most COO types I've known are very concise, very polite, and are everybody's best friend publicly. Even if they will screw you behind your back and are phony as hell, they will still shake your hand, ask interesting questions about yourself, and generally make you feel good. Moogy has none of the personality trades of COO types.

This is an interesting topic. Moogie's point (before he derailed the thread) seemed to be that since the Rays pitching is all injured all these high tech efforts must mean s***... On the other hand their pitching staff seems to be performing and Rays are in first.

Moogy is one of a kind and is apparently some kind of an elitist with a hell of a life story... I just couldn't do him justice in a concise way!

Bow before Moogie. Moogie's life story Born 1973 to wealthy parents. Intelligent Child, no friends because he was smarter than the others. Double Bachelors in philosophy and math 1992 Travelled the world 1993-1995 -- disappeared into India for 4 of those months. 1996 Inherits 16.7 million dollars 1998 Law Degree - 2000 M.B.A. 2001 - helps Bush family broker safe passage of Saudi Citizens after 9/11 2002 - helps Jeffrey Loria, John Henry and Bud Selig broker Montreal, Florida, Boston franchise swap. 2003 - heavy investments in ammunitions pay off with start of Iraq War - net worth increases to several hundred million 2004 - Holds Secret meetings with Peter Fitzgerald and Carol Moseley Braun and convinces both to not participate in 2004 Illinois State Senate race. Soon after a struggling unknown state senator, Barack Obama wins democratic primary. July 2004 - Travels to Chicago and holds several meeting with Tribune staff. Soon after Republican Jack Ryan Sex Scandal breaks, Barack Obama left without Opponent. August 2004 - funds swift vote veterans for truth January 2006 - Transfers all holdings out of Bear Sterns and Merryll Lynch. Summer 2006 - Reverses course and shorts defense companies, starts heavy campaign donations to Democratic candidates for congress. Summer 2007 - shorts all financial companies Summer 2008 - Sarah Palin announced as John McCains running mate - Off the record senior campaign staff hint this seemingly ludicrous decision was forced by unknown big-time campaign financier. November 2008 - Barack Obama elected president December 2008 - Senior staff are mystified at choices of Hilary Clinton for Secretary of State and Tim Gietner for Treasury, hint decision was forced by unknown campaign financier. March 2009 - Re-invests in U.S. and Global Stock Markets, Net worth several billion. October 2012 - For unknown reasons releases "Mitt Romney" 47% tape January 2013 - Completes personal direct fiber optic cables from Chicago to New York and London to New York March 2013 - Completes personal satellite system which connect Hong Kong and Shanghai to New York January 2014 - Heavy high frequency trading activity, net worth increases several times to the trillions, March 2014 - retires to a life of leisure, all time now spent trolling the Blue Jays Message Board