Olerud363

Yo. Donaldson is the bomb.

Me "so far Donaldson is ahead 4.7-1.1, fan graphs has it 2.8-1.2 the rest of the way" You realize we said the same thing. The expectation next year will likely be 5-3 Donaldson.

It's telling that they think the "Donaldson gets pissed off at losing" scenario is so far fetched. I guess they weren't around for the Clemens years. Clemens provided 20 WAR over 2 years and they were two of the most miserable years of the franchise, there was infighting, Cito going off on the media, Cito getting fired, the Tim Johnson disaster. In 1998 the Jays won 88 but they weren't really in it for a day... they had a late 10 game win streak that brought them within 4 of the wild card... but then lost some close games down the stretch. The highlight of the season was the last Game Halladay was Halladay for a day and almost threw a no-hitter, Bobby Higginson hit a homer off him and Dave Stieb caught it in the bullpen. So I am sure you are thinking 'what the f***??' Dave Stieb, Halladay and Roger Clemens were on the same team?? Yes and so were Jose Canseco and Tony Fernandez but it was a mess. Tim Johnson Vietnam war stories... B.J. Ryan version I, Jose Canseco and Mike Stanley crowd the DH spot, but by November we don't even have 1 DH (which hurt in 99). Then Clemens demanded a trade, the Tim Johnson vietnam thing went crazy, and both showed up at Spring Training, but didn't survive it. So anyway I guess I just have seen enough to know any crazy thing can happen and even a great player doesn't mean great years....

According to fangraphs Josh Donaldson OUT-WARED Lawrie 4.7-1.2 in the first half in the second half it will only be 2.8-1.1 (predicted) Both are predicted to regress to their career averages. I'm not saying Lawrie will be better, I'm saying it will be closer. And 2 years from now it will be even closer. According to probability Donaldson will age. I suggest suing fangraphs if you don't believe and you think they are tarnishing Donaldson unfairly.

The most likely thing is that he'll hit at his career rates with a slight boost from the aging curve (very slight I believe) The most likely thing is that Donaldson will hit at his career rates with a -10% or so from the aging curve. That brings Donaldson and Lawrie somewhat closer going forward.

You could use that to justify the Dickey Deal. The 6 wins Dickey added in the present (2013/14) were more valuable then the x wins Syndergard will add... Money is more valuable now because we know inflation generally marches forward. If we have 20 million dollars now it can buy 5 WAR (or something).. so 20 million is more valuable now because in 5 years it (probably) will buy less WAR, 3 or something. 5 WAR now isn't more valuable now in the same sense. If the Jays are an 78 win team without Donaldson now, 85 with him, but a 88 win team in 2019, Franklin Baretto's WAR is probably more valuable.

So are the good moves skill or luck?? The Jose Reyes trade would look better if Jose hit career high in WAR in his 30-32 seasons. The R.A. Dickey trade would look better if he didn't go from 5 WAR to 0.

And what I mean by 'justify' a 35% chance of winning the trade.. is... well how exactly do I prove that?? Why not 30%?? or 40%?? or 20%?? I know there is a non-zero chance the As win the trade... I don't know exactly how to estimate it. It easier to just pretend the Jays have 100% won the trade after 3 months -- 100% Jays win the trade justification technique "Yo BRO - Donaldson IS the Bomb at Rogers Center ! That tatooed guy HEGONE! And some minor leaguer is just some minor leaguer. BEane went smokin some good stuff on this one. AA got an MVP for the some s***! I hate AA but he done good on that one. Makes up for the KnuCKLEHEAD!!!!!!"

I am not debating it... exactly. I think there is a 35% chance that As win the trade, they think it is 0%. The problem is it is very difficult to justify a 35% chance that the As will still win the trade... it is easy to justify a 0% (even though we know that it is not 0% that Jays win the trade) you just act arrogant, over-confident and don't acknowledge Donaldson's downside or the other players upside. It is more a societal thing... you have to act over-confident to get shiny objects.

YES - Defense does not age -- it is the one skill that is absolutely unageable which is why Jose Reyes and A-Rod and Jeter could play short stop very well in their 30s. I remember George Brett... the bat slowed as he aged, could barely hit by 1990 -- but the defense was so stellar, it did not age a day, I would look up on the fangraphs but I don't need to because L54 has confidence, he shows no doublt, so I know by his confident statements that 3b defense does not age. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1001400&position=3B

Why would you hate AA if you love the Donaldson trade?? That does not make sense. Unless you believe AA just lucked into it. I like the trade. I am being flamed because I don't love the trade. The trade has looked as good as it possibly can. Donaldson was projected for 5 WAR is on track for 9. I believe the gap will slowly close and a year from now the trade won't look as good. But if you absolutely love the trade beyond debate then you should love AA. If it is not random, or luck, then AAs (like Donaldson) skills have developed late and should be GM for the next 4 years so we can enjoy his prime. In 2012 Donaldon was not that good, but both him and AA developed in 2013 and 2014 and we should enjoy both their primes for the next 4 years.

There was no reason to think anything not so nice would happen to Kelly Gruber, or Ryan Zimmerman, or Scott Rolen, or David Wright, or Chris Sabo, or Eric Chavez... Donaldson projections are still likely 5 WAR going forward, that doesn't mean he will get 5 WAR a year, he might play his brains out for 5 years and amass 40 WAR, he might collapse... he might produce 4.87 WAR year in year out. I think people underestimate the chance Donaldson could collapse and under-estimate the chance one of the Oakland guys could break out. That's all. Never said the trade was bad...

I don't think it has panned out as projected... Donaldson would of been projected as a 5 win player, and he's played his mind out... he's on track for 9 wins... We got a player that was high and so far he's gone higher....

If you believe you are making decisions with perfect information and deviation from your model is random variation then you are correct. If the data and models everyone is using are perfect then the trade was even the moment it was made, and the outcome was random. No need to evaluate. If one organization (or the other) had less then perfect data or model then that party (As or Jays) should do hindsight evaluation so they can recalibrate their models.

My agenda is that I have a problem with people making definitive statements about a trade 3 months in. Obviously I'm not allowed to point out hypothetical futures... because the past is an indication of the future... here are my predictions for the next 4 years. Donaldson WAR 2015-2018 - 8-8-8-8 Lawrie WAR 2015-2018 - 2-2-2-2 Gravemen WAR 2015-2018 2-2-2-2 Barreto 2015-2018 - a+ Stockton .290 .320 .450 or so line These players will neiter surprise nor dissapoint. They will evolve in no way. They will not age. What is now, will continue... forever. On this message board we aim to develop good soldiers for coorporate America... do not speculate on possible futures... if you want to suceed be smiley, be confident, and be 100% certain.

I can't find the thread now but in April or May, when all players were struggling, I said that Lawrie "could" hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could put up a 3.00 era, Barretto could contibute as a very young player. People were quite rude and basically said "they haven't done any of that yet and there is no evidence they could"... anyway 2 months later they are basically on track for decent seasons. My point isn't that 3 decent seasons = Donaldson. It is that Donaldson at 29, may not = Donaldson 30-32, and there is still a lot of + upside to the As players. These players could contribute to an As playoff run, while the Jays struggle... Even if he is elite in his 30s, I get the feeling that Donaldson won't be happy wasting them with a 78 win Jays team.

I realize this but as ussual they are missing my point. Which is 1. I'm not saying it is a bad trade... I am saying the trade is yet to be decided. 2. Donaldson is quite likely as high as he'll ever be. Scott Rolen didn't put up 8 win seasons in his 30s. He went 9 WAR at 29, then -1-5-2 from 29-32. 3. If Donaldson pulls a Scott Rolen, or a Ken Griffey Jr, or a Frank Thomas or does what any number of players have done in their 30s people will be singing a different tune in a couple of years. 4. When you trade lots of young players you may get burned. One of Barreto, Gravemen, or Lawrie may explode to the upside. Individually you can look at these guys and explain why they will only be 2 or 3 WAR. However there will be random variation around the predictions, and that randomness may lead to 2 of them failing and one becoming that high WAR player. Or it could lead to all 3 of them contributing to an As playoff run in a couple years.

Not quite... if everyone was really exactly a 2 you'd get a playoff spot... it would be almost impossible to have 25-2s.... but if you imagine a team with a lot of platoons, decent starters, killer bullpen, it would be a good team. It wouldn't happen because of random variation... so even if everyone's "true talent" was -2 you'd have a mix of 0s, 1s, 2s, and 4s... no one would recognize it's an even team and they'd make up narratives regarding good and bad players... Anyway if you have a 6 and a 0 it is easier to improve the 0, if you have two 3s, it is harder to improve one of the 3s. For example once we got Donaldson we were able to replace Lawrie with Travis.

Actually Reyes is still projected to have a higher on base percentage the rest of the way then Travis... so from that perspective it makes sense. Or in other words Travis doesn't have enough sample size yet to show if he is really a .290 hitter...

Quick google search indicates the same thing... Convential wisdom has always been age 27 is the peak... I am not aware of any data showing early 30s as the peak. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

The latest research I saw on aging curves is the 26-28 is prime.... For example Hurl posted this a while back .(just got bumped in the Melky thread) http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Curve2.jpg The reason I responded is that you made such a BS statement and I called you out on it. Much the same way you said that I posted HOF'ers when in reality more than half the list isn't in the hall. Talk ******** and someone will likely call you out. I've also mentioned in posts that I think occasionally JFaS should explain his "absolute" comments that he does as there are a lot of posters that don't understand why he thinks "1st rounder + Smoak > Melky". I understand it's based on value and projections but there are still a lot of people that could use educating on this subject.

The lesson is nobody can predict this s*** for one player. that is why I'm not as big a fan of the Donaldson trade as most... I think a positive surprise among Lawrie/Baretto/Gravemen will give Donaldson 30-32 a run... and the other pieces will sway the trade in the As favour. The predictions are just random even for the smart guys (JFAS). Nobody knew weather it would be Pompey or Travis, Osuna or Castor, Sanchez or Norris that would stick.... I think if the Jays just stuck with everybody Norris, Castor and Pompey would rebounded to match the predictions. Looks like the major problem is this... The Jays are stupid. The players that stuck are the ones that had a good april. The other guys didn't get a chance to hit the predictions. So I think maybe the smart guys (JFAS, Hurl) are smart enough... they just can't predict who will have a good April and get a chance at May... nobody could really.

Donaldson is almost 30. You are assuming his age 30-32 will be as good as 27-29.

Yes because the Donaldson trade is decided after half a season. Every time we do this the Donaldson trade looks slightly better for the As Gravemen is now pretty much won a rotation spot, Lawrie is staying healhty, Baretto is hot. But it is 100% certain that 30something Donaldson will out perform them It's basically a 4-2 WAR right now if you average bbref WAR and Fangraphs. this is the type of trade (like dickey) with the As holding all the younger players. The first time I did this I said -- Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could be a staple in the rotation, Barretto get hot and regain top prospect status. I was told "YOU ARE DUMB, STOP TALKING IN HYPOTHETICALS -- LAWRIE, GRAVEMEN, BARRETO SUCKKKKK!!!!" Now in 2 months the "hypothetical" is allready on track. The trade (so far) is still a win for the Jays, but things can change quick,.

Can you get Paul Beeston fired and make sure his replacement is the compete opposite?? Perhaps hold a meeting with Rogers share holders and make it clear to them that because of your Royal Descent you will have veto power over their next choice for president... If you can do that you will be useful...