Olerud363

I personally don't think he's the problem... but it's tiring... lets get it over with. Cito?? Dusty Baker?? Who do we grab?? Who is old... and Beeston will like??

It's an 81 win team... nobody can change that... at this point it is a 77 win team... cause they are allready 7 under. The frustration with Gibby is misdirected... everything Gibby does is magnified because they only way the Jays can win this year is if everything goes absolutely right here on in... And it won't... but don't blame Gibby.

It's an 81 win team... so in the 3 year window variance will range between 75 and 85.... the expectations are 90... so it is a recipe for great frustration. I don't know if we can blame variance. Blame the people who made an 81 win team and marketed it as a contender... With an 81 win team you are relying on EVERYTHING going right, to luck out at 90 wins.. as soon as one thing goes wrong, or a few things it's season over in May... In the end you blame Beeston. Ultimately he is the idiot who led the culture that led to this mess.

Yeah... kind of sucks that there is no game thread. With me and Moogie talkin so much foolishness back and forth the regulars got pissed and started another new board.. don't know where. You should try find out but it's kind of a secret cause they want to keep the foolishness away. Anyway fire Gibby!!!!

Jerry - "And the Jays really need Estrada to provide some innings after what happened in game 1.." Whathisface - "that one isn't coming back"

Jerry Howarth - "and that knuckle floats out of the zone 3-1" Whathisface - "R.A. doesn't really have a choice here... he can't load the bases" 80 mph fastball bang!!! 467 feet. Not bad when you consider Harper will be provdiing all the power.

Because if your mythical creature exists you should be able to show it to us... People DON'T use ERA because they do not believe that "soft contact" skills exist... thus ERA is influenced greatly by luck. but if soft contact exists pitchers should exist that have higher and lower eras then their simple peripherals (k/bb/hr) would predict. You would go through the excercise to prove you know what your talking about. Not answering is the same as admitting you are wrong. in our culure when we are wrong we do not reply. So if you do not answer my question.. well you have answered it,.

This is very simple. Come up with an example... two pitchers. 5 or more years of data. Very close k/bb/hr rates. BIG era difference (after park factor adjustment). I'll let you decide what big is. I mean can you come up with 1 run era difference between two becasue one induced soft contact. Who are these mythical guys??

Serious question. What does that mean?? OK. I googled this quickly and it seems you split the sample size in 2 and run a correlation between the two partitions. So if you take 8 years of data, randomly divide it into 2 partitions the R will be 0.5. If you take 2 years data do the same the R is much lower?? Just for comparison how long does it take strikeouts to stabilize??

This is obviously going to be a futile argument. Luck has a large effect on outcomes. That's a fact. In retrospect you can give it any explanation you want. But it is luck. Look at Felix Hernandex 2009-2014 - 2.22 era in 2010 3.5ish the next. Bounces around a bit. Back to 2.15. Everything otherwise is the same. So in 2011 you would say he "pitched" worse but ... his "worse" pitching did not effect his homerun rate his "worse" pitching did not effect his k rate his "worse" pitching did not effect his bb rate his "worse" pitching did not continue. His era went down again. Other people can give you the advanced stats... Moogie will claim I am giving you "math" but I am not. Just an anecdote. Felix Hernandez... at age 25 the man, the legend took a turn for the worse... he ate some bad clams... or maybe got addicted to play-station.. but he could no longer control where the bloopers went...

Moogie my friend, you are correct... I am using Math... When JFAS says "Mother f***er -- I spent all night calculating formulas for deserved ERA, I used the napkin, then I used a spreadsheet, then 'cause spread sheets aren't cool I finished it off in R." When Nox says - "I am a mysterious mother f***er that knows some hard core s***, I always regularize my mutli-parameter estimations with the smoothest kernels, cause Nox doesn't overfit." then I will say -- "I know math too. Moogie can vouch for me. He said I was doing math. I didn't even use a napkin. I just made some reasonable guesses. Guess, Guess, Guess. That's all there is to Math. I am a math guy too!. Nox, JFAS, and me. The math guys!" Math is easy. Bow before Moogie!

There is a camp that thinks that if the Jays were 'clutch' and did the little things like getting soft contact, that they would be awesome and be 11-4 in one run games. There is a camp that thinks that Aaron Sanchez is the next Roy Halladay and that Ryan Goins is the kind the hard nosed defensive whiz that the Jays need. There is a camp that thinks in the long run advanced analytics will save the day. There is a camp that thinks just a little common sense would save the day. There is a guy called Moogie (copperweld) that likes to cause trouble. And so everybody fights.

lol... please. If I can't hold a job it is for one reason... because I spend to much time posting crap on message boards like this. Any fool could see that. I am not using math. I am using guess work based on past experience. I remember seeing pitchers with a 200-30 k/bb ratio. I remember what their eras have been. There is no math involved here. Not even back of the napkin.

I agree ScientifReason is not moogie. I never said he was. I was just requesting a name change for any 'moogie' aliases. I said 'If Roy Halladay type is lucky they can have a 1.5 era over entire season' You disagree?? I wasn't trying to explain variation. Just making a statement. 'If Roy Halladay type is unlucky their era could be 4.00' You disagree?? Then please tell us what the variation is Dwight Gooden 85 vs. 90?? 1.59 era vs. 3.83?? What was the difference?? Looking at fangraphs I would say mostly luck... http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1004852&position=P

Holy crap. Just when you think things couldn't get any dumber. I didn't do math?? Do you even know what Math is?? I said pitchers such as Halladay with a 200-35 k/bb ratio deserve a 2.50 era (or so). I didn't use a napkin or math. I am just guessing that a pitcher with a 200-35 k/bb ratio deserves a 2.50 era based on years of watching baseball and reading stats. I said pitchers with a 170-60 k/bb ratio deserve a 3.00 era, based on same. Math would give you a better answer.

Holy Crap. This board is dumb. Haven't you ever heard of correlation is not causation?? It is like common logic 101. Weak contact is correlated with low era. But both weak contact and low era could of happened because of luck.

You are dumb. Part of science is realizing that anybody can have luck. Any result you see may be just chance. And you have to then use rigorous science to determine if what you saw was luck, or an actual relationship. If Roy Halladay type is lucky they can have 1.5 era over entire season. If unlucky could be as high as 4.00. Luck effects all. Josh Towers can get lucky for a season. Since you do not understand this you must change your name. You do not have scientific reason. Mods... please, instead of bans I suggest name changes. Scientific Reason - auto change name to UnscientificReason Moogie aliases - change name back to Moogy so we know who we are talking to. I discourage complete bans, but encourage name changes.

?? THIS IS THE DUMBEST THING I EVER SAW POSTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I had to all-cap to emphasize, given you accused someone else of "dumbest thing ever" when ironically you actually posted the dumbest thing ever. Take pitchers such as Halladay.... Give them 200 ks, 35 walks Give them high ground ball rate This will separate them from replacement players. These pitchers deserve 2.50 era (or so) Take pitchers such as Dallas Kuechel Give them 170-60 k-bb or such If they have 1.76 era it is luck... if they have 3.00 era that might be what they deserve.

We are 1/3 of the way through the season... Donaldson has played out of his mind. As great of a third of a season as possible. He has done everything he can and yet his team-mates have let him down. If this continues I can see Donaldson blowing up. This could be like the Clemens years. Clemens was the best player in baseball... the rest of the team not so much. It led to rancid terrible feelings, and eventually Clemens leaving for minimal return. Meanwhile Lawrie has played about as bad as we've seen him... perhaps the worst 2 months he could have (k/bb ratio horrible, d bad)... but has stayed healthy and seems to be coming around. A .280 20 homer season could happen (assuming health). Barretto started as slow as a prospect can but is coming around and holding his own as a 19 year old in a+. Gravemen, turning it around after what was really 1 terrible game, Nolin healthy and could contribute at some point. A's may make a surprise run this year... or maybe just develop for next year. Scenarios exist where this trade leads to playoff appearances for the As. Their fans get happiness..,. While the Donaldson years parrallel the Clemens years. A terribly unhealthy franchise with one star... Donaldson's complaints about inferior team-mates lead him out of town for minimual return, while we watch the As go to the playoffs.

I am fascinated by him. I only end up listening to the Mike Wilner show a few times a year... and he never fails to provide ridiculous insight, like Pillar sort of equals Devon White. It makes me wonder what kind of s*** he talks about the 95% of the shows I miss. Also... in 2012 I got the chance to listen more as I was working on the road and had more time. That year there was a Colby Rasmus fan that called in from Alabama or somewhere. He called in every night. It was weird. How did he get through so much??

Bautista 2010-2014, Halladay 2002-2009, as good of centerpieces as you could ask for Jays won nothing Donaldson could just end pushing the window back to 2027... Dum Beeston replacement - We will build around Donaldson and the young pitchers, we cannot waste his prime, I offer Alford, I offer Rowdie, I offer Hoffman, I offer Boyd, I offer Jansen, and in return I must have veteran presence to compliment Donaldson. This time we will be victorious! (Freak injury to Hutch and/or Stroman (again) ), Norris and Sanchez never get any control -- 4 years pass - it still is all the same and now people approaching 35 have no memory of a Jays playoff team.

Apparently there was no Mike Wilner show yesterday, none today (no game), Mrs. Olerud363 has left me alone for the weekend so I will try and catch the show tomorrow. It is more exciting then Rangers game 7. Since there is no Mike Wilner I went to the fangraphs site to see if the crap Wilner says is true or not Pillar = Devon White - it seems fangraphs rates Pillar as replacement level (0.1 WAR)... Devon White (91-93) was consistently 5.5-6.0 WAR a year Why the difference between Fangraphs and Wilner?? Maybe I will ask him tomorrow. Me: Mike the latest fangraphs update has Pillar and Pompey as equivalent at 0.1 WAR.. if Pompey proves healthy for Buffalo should we bring him back?? Mike: (Condenscending) ... No... (pause for dramatic effect) c'mon.... You don't take Pillar out of the line up for one little slump... If we did that in 92 Derek Bell would of played center field And you know how that would of worked out?? It wouldn't have. No. Pompey is right where he needs to be. Pillar is catching the ball and more. That's what you need in centerfield.

Only 90 wins will make up for that. Otherwise Donaldson is a tool for the new GM to get prospects... and as we saw from the Haladay trade their is no guarentee.

The goal is to create an extended window of contending, winning, and playoffs. So no move can be viewed in isolation. God knows... Lawrie and Gravemen could turn it around... Barretto could come quick. My god this would not surprise me. 2017 Oakland 94 wins, Lawrie .290 18 80, Barretto .290 7 67 (ROY contender), Gravemen 15-11 3.10 -- combined 10 WAR Toronto 62 wins, Donaldson .290 18 54 traded at deadline to Cards, .330 19 45 for Cards Donaldson, praise the lord I am with a real team and will experience victory. Kenny Williams - It is time to rebuild, the young playered acquired for Donaldson will lead us to Victory in 2022!!!

My friend who is a Mets fan wants Donaldson. He believes it is unethetical for Donaldson to be playing with such a team as the blue jays. He thanks god for the stupidity of AA and Beeston, and now believes that Donaldson's destiny is to be united with Thor. He says he will us Michael Confort and a couple of others. Didn't know who they were until I looked them up 5 minutes ago. According to my friend Donaldson will be with Thor once Tampa Bay and/or Yanks go on a hot streak.. it is the way it should be. Note: I'm not saying we should trade Donaldson... just my Mets friend sees that he got Thor, so now assumes the Jays management is really stupid, so he can get Donaldson too, as soon as Tampa goes on a hot streak.