Olerud363

Dear Mr. 43211234 Hypothetically let's say you got hit by a truck in March, you die, but don't know it. Heavan is a place where everything goes perfect but you think you are still alive and things are perfect (when in reality it is an after-life dream like thing). Here is the line up in that case 1. Travis .320 14 72 (on pace for ROY) 2. Tulo 3. Donaldson 4. Bautista 5. Saunders .280 20 65 -- finally stays healthy 6. EE 7. Smoak 8. Martin 9. Pompey .270 .320 .410 another Canadian boy with a nice rookie season! Stroman on the mound -- 14-4 2.80 -- no need to save him for the Yanks because Jays are 12 ahead

Maybe he will be shifting the entire game... Donaldson can handle the left side himself

Anyway point of the above post is this WAR should be used to make sure things like George Bell over Trammel doesn't happen... but when you have three or for guys close let the "intagibles" decide it (even if you don't believe in them).

Anti-canadian bias?? The only guy to ever in an MVP for the Jays is George Bell '87. He wasn't top 10 in the league in WAR. He was fourth on his own team (after Key, Fernandez, and Clancy). So essentially this guy George Bell, like a rich man's Joe Carter (higher average, less strikeouts) a guy competing in WAR with Jim Clancy (anyone remember Clancy??) won the league MVP. Mean time -- Allan Tramel, a batting title contending short stop with power, who led his team into the playoffs (against George Bell's Jays) doens't win the MVP. How the hell is that possible?? Tramel out-WARed bell 8-5 and led his team to the playoffs. Imagine this (just to put it into 2015 terms so the kids can understand) 1. Nelson Cruz is still with the Orioles, he hits lots of homers and gets rbbizzzzzz 2. Troy Tulowitzki plays for the Jays for the entire season, he contends for the batting title, hits ,.340 with power and great overall stats and OUT Warzz Cruz significantly. 3. Tulowitzki helps the Jays beat the ******* Orioles out of the playoffs in the final weekend, Cruz goes home, Tulo goes to the playoffs. 4. Cruz still wins the MVP. Everyone would ofcourse scream American bias... but instaead it happened in reverse... almost 30 years ago now I guess. I am old. I watched the Jays get eliminated by KC, and Detroit on little TVs back then... didn't really follow them full time until 88... just watched the sad playoffs and final days of the season.

Person - "Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, barring injury he will win the MVP 10 years in a row" Stangstag - "You are very smart, you can walk without shame" Another Person - "Mike Trout will not win the MVP 10 years in a row, he won't even deserve it 10 years in a row, over 10 years he may win three MVPs, some years other players will have better seasons and win the MVP, some years players will be essentially be tied with Trout and win the MVP because of their unique story (and the writers don't want to give it to Trout every year). Some year some ******* slugger will drive in 150 and win it... though Trout will probably deserve it that year. That is the way it works." Stangstag - "You should be ashamed of yourself, your family should be ashamed of you. Shame, Shame, Shame!!"

Trout is undoubtedly a better player year in year out... but MVP is not the highest WAR award... If Trout out WARs some lumbering sluggering 10-6 then - Then all hail the WAR! Trout is MVP! If Trout out WARs a great defensive 3rd basemen, leading his team to first contention in 20 years, 10-9 - All hail Donaldson! we are not a slave to WAR1

??? I'm not really arguing with Gordie or anybody. Just saying that I am sure that if you crunch the numbers it would give you a expected value for Price and Jays shouldn't go over that number. Someone else probably will. As far as I can see that is all Gordie is saying. I have different minds about this depending on the pitcher. The stats guys said a similar thing regarding Sanchez as a starter. But I chirped a bit with them... However being Optimistic about Sanchez doesn't have a huge downside, as long as you don't give him to many starts. Just keep with him for a while... the (very small) upside is Halladay/Carpenter, the downside is a replacement level starter that you can get rid of quickly (or send to the bullpen) With Price the downside of being Optimistic is a couple hundred million dollars.

I will give you another one Roy Halladay. He had his last great season at 34 or so. Dave Stieb 32. A 5 year contract for Roy after age 30 would of been OK. A 10 year would not. So Price for 5 years at 150 may be an OK risk. I think if you did the math on it (average performance of good pitchers in their 30s) you would expect four or five good years. Edit - not saying even 5 years is a good risk... I don't know exactly what the magic number is, just guessing it is about 4 or 5 years.

It's only one game... Norris underperformed at Buffalo this year big time, peripherals were way down. If the real Norris is the 2014 Norris, and he pitches lights out for Detroit the rest of the way there will be hell to pay. If this happens Norris 6-2 2.73 Detroit surprise wild card team... Syndergard - ROY- Next Halladay Price 4-4 3.38 Toronto 82 wins, not even really in the WC race in September Toronto fans will have mental scars that will be unrecoverable

This is not true at all. Every good prospect gets a chance no matter what. Teams use 10 starters a year. Top pitching prospects are going to find their way to a few starts no matter what. If the Jays give up on these guys after a rough outing it is not a matter of opportunity... it is a matter of organization decision making. Boyd and Norris found starts... they were quickly dispatched so Felix Dubront could get some starts. If the organization philosaphy was.. We will develop many good young pitchers... we will not give up on them after a bad start or two... we will develop them and give them 30 starts... we will not trade a young player for old. Then the Jays would have a sweet rotation this year and next... maybe no Donaldson and TT, but Hech and Lawrie and Syndergard and Stroman... it would be more of a Mets style defense first team.

I have mixed thoughts about the socialist dictators that run this place... edit -- I think some of the mods are pretty good (like Hurl I think)... it might just be a couple who are thought police... I'm really not sure... just know there have been a lot of complaints about destroyed theads and silly bans lately. On one hand they are contributing their time so have the right to dictate... On the other hand it has definately tipped the scales to humorless, drone threads. I remember one innocent silly thread about Cabrera was shut down completely... A good mod eliminates child pornography and multiple dog threads (a day)... otherwise we shouldn't even know who they are. However we do know that they are supressing the thoughts and threads of the ordinary people.... sad in a way.

Now my second point... Steve Tolleson will be brought to play everyday, Colabello will play everyday, Smoak will be in the doghouse... Why?? Because it is Cito. Cito has a soft spot for useless right handed hitters... because they remind him of himself... once upon a time Cito was a fringe major leaguer with one good year. He slumped and lost playing time to young players and left handed hitters.... he resents both these groups of players to this day. So Tolleson and Colabello will get every day roles. Thus the Cito Gaston lineup Reyes Pillar Bautista EE Colabello Donaldson Martin Tolleson Travis

ha ha -- lets get Cito... 1. Donaldson will hit sixth (Players such as Molitor, Alomar, and Scott Rolen had to so Cito'f favorites could get cushy line up spot) Reyes Pillar Bautista EE Colabello Donaldson Martin Tolleson Travis

But it is kind of... If the Jays started 5-10 and were 4.5 games back there would be huge concern... But there would also be 145 games left. The jays have essentially are in this situation with only 70 games left... Playoff odds reflect what has happened...

Incredibly Jays playoff chances (according to fangraphs) have gone down from 50% to ~25% in the last 20 days. So... 1. I was a little overly optimistic a couple of weeks ago but... 2. The new information we have gained about the Toronto Blue Jays in the last couple of weeks has been very negative. The new information we have learned about their rivals (NY Yanks, and Aneiham particularly) has been positive.

Not sure. I still am old school and justy buy real books. If you are looking at learning data-analysis with python you will also want to learn python libraries numpy, pandas, and scikitlearn.

I deserved that no question... 1. If the team does outscore the opposition 400-300 or something in the second half, they will be good. I believe in pythagoran. 2. Travis has come back healthy and hitting... 3. Somehow even with this the offense has tanked since he's been back. Maybe I am to bipolar. I don't know. Mabye not. Statement - after 70odd games... this is a good offensive team. 10 more games pass with putrid offensive performance... is it logical to change the statement??

There is nothing wrong with the team. It is a great 80 win team created by "The Beast" and "The fat greak" Any subsection of the 4 year period 2013-2016 will have it's own narrative. One day a team might lose 8-7, the next 2-1... same thing can happen over a period of weeks. It is an 80 win team. Each sub-period will have it's own narrative, each year will be slightly different (between 75-85 wins).

I don't know if you are a troll or not... but my view is this. Devon Travis is not an impact type player along the lines of Donaldson and Bautista. It is unlikely he will show that ability. Over a full season he will (likely) be 2 or 3 wins above replacement. If you want a good team collect players until their collective wins above replacement projections lead to high 80s victory total for 3 or 4 years. Then you will get a couple of playoff appearances. There is no clutch, there is always random chance. You do not know exactly how things will happen. Create a team that will win 89 games, then make sure it is projected to win 89 for a few years... then randomness will hit each way. The Jays 2013-2017 are a 80 win team... random chance brings us to a 75-85 win range which will never be good enough for playoffs. People make silly stories to explain what happens each individual year, but it is just random drift around the 80 wins.

Is that Java?? I figured you would be more of an R type. I have not met many hard core stats guys that are also fluent in Java... but perhaps in the low circles I travel I have not really met hard core stats people, just second tier. Another similar running argument has frustrated me lately. It goes something like this. Jays 2015 prove that run differential and offense are crap. People have a really hard time with randomness,

Lead off man with a .299 on base percentage

Good to see you still here after they censored you. I support you and your right to start semi-entertaining threads. Now I don't agree you should "dogg-it" and start 20 a day... but the book-burners should leave occasional humour alone.

It is similar to the Alomar deal in that the guys coming back blasted their projections out of the water. 1 bad player, 1 good player -> became 1 good, 1 great Again if you believe it is was the greatest trade in Blue Jays history then AA deserves to stay for four more years. Like Alomar, like Donaldson, AA has improved and we need AAs prime. Personally I think it was positive randomness. Please start a AA-4 more years thread... if the Donaldson trade was skill we need that skill for the next four years.

I'm from the Bill James generation... didn't have WAR back then.... 1985 - Had to write a lot to jusity and convey ideas. James and other writers wrote hundreds of pages of player comments.. James ussually wasn't limited by space. If you had to use a couple of pages to describe player you did. Late 90s early 2000s - heyday of forrums... fanhome Montreal Expos was the absolute bomb... (dancing Lorias, long analysis, good natured humor, Mods were not book-burners) 2000 - Baseball prospectus limited player comment size and added more advanced stats. Didn't have to be as wordy. 2007 - Smart phones start... really hard to read any thing of length. 2015 - Yo Bro - 7 WAR!

The comments that I am replying to are things like "AA made up for the Dickey trade with the Donaldson trade" -- People think the Donaldson Trade is so good that it made up for the other bad moves. I personally don't think it is a genius trade. I think the result is to a large degree randomness that could still swing. Trade 20 prospects for four or five 5-WAR players and they won't all march in a line with 5 WAR year after year. The prospects won't all march nicely through the minors obeying their Baseball America rankings. There will be a tremendous amount of randomness. People will surpise and dissapoint. When a 5 WAR guy surprises positive he becomes an MVP, when he dissapoints (Dickey, Johnson, Reyes) they can become replacement level ********. The unknown prospect that no one thought anything (Gomes say) will become the impact guy. Given the number of prospects we've given up the last few years the ones that will burn us are yet to be named. So we traded/signed for a bunch of guys that were expected to give us 4 or 5 WAR, Donaldson, Johnson, Dickey, Reyes, Melky... except all these players were passed prime. We end up getting a bunch of 0 WAR, 1 WAR, and 2 WAR seasons from these guys, horrible result. And then one player surprises positive in half a season and this makes up for everything else?? If you realize it doesn't then we agree, and my comments aren't directed at you.