Olerud363

Jays are 3-3 in his starts... better pitcher with same run support and defense would be 4-2... Prime Pedro Martinez might be 5-1... Rickey Romero 2015 version might be 0-6. I could go on and on but the WAR basically does that for me. His WAR is 0.0. That means you could find a bunch guys who given the same defense and run support would do about the same. He could get better.

Curt Schilling was mediocre until age 25. He had mediocre k-rates in the minors... he had a good season as a swingman at 23... was a mediocre reliever at 24. Then started improving. His k-rate went from 5.8 his first year starting to 10/11 in his best years. Schilling had a so/w of 2 as a 24 year old so/so reliever... it got better... in his best year it was almost 10 as a 250 inning pitched starter

Prepare top get yelled at... Saying that Sanchez looks like Halladay and Carpenter at age 22, 23 year olds is a fact. Similar minor league numbers too. Juan Guzman walked 11 a game in the minors one year... 2 years later he was leading the Jays to the playoffs with an ERA under 3. He won an ERA title eventually. Was on track for 8 WAR but got appendicitis. Pitchers are weird. Maybe it is an all illusion because as Jays fans we saw Guzman and Hentgen and Carpenter and Haladay all contribute amazing seasons after mediocre minor league careers. So 10 years from now every time a mediocre right handed slugger joins the Jays in his late 20s everyone will be excited and hopeful... because they saw Bautista and EE and impressionable age... And they will be very skeptical of the 21 year old super-prospects because of Snider and Lawrie

If I proposed 12 independent variables and created a model, and made a prediction using only 10 data points for my training set that would be overfitting. Proposing 5 different variables with ranges was silly, more cherry picking then overfitting, (I wasn't trying to make a prediction). I should of thought more carefully. Using tight ranges I could get as small a group as I wanted only using 1 variable (say fastball speed 90-90.01) My hypothesis was that Sanchez was an outlier. I'm no longer convinced he's an "outlier" so to say. He near the edge of the 3D distribution of age, ground ball rate, and fastball speed. So are a lot of other guys. It's a hypershpere. RA Dickey and Mark Buerhle are on the edge somewhere. I don't know if that is meaningful or not, Are predictions for guys on the edge of the cluster as accurate as for guys in the middle of the cluster?? I also realize the more variables I use the more guys there will be on the edge... 1D there will be only be 2 guys on the edges, in 2D space more, and so on, until, as you indicate, you can get everybody on the edges if you use enough variables.

I assume they'd just have earphones and get a little help. Still make the call. Or what if they were just used for ratings with real repercussions. Like Umps could get sent to the minors if bad, get bonuses if good. I'm sure people have suggested that before but the Umps union is too strong?? Fine let them strike, use the robot umps during the strike.

Absolutely. The only thing I claimed it here is that it is an interesting thread. In fact I learned how to use the fangraphs filters because of this thread... thanks for that, never tried them out before.

Ground ball rate > .55, age < 24, fb speed >92, your down to 11 in 15 seasons of data. Overfitting is choosing small ranges in the middle of the distribution. All I am saying is Sanchez is near the edge of the distribution if we use age, fastball speed, and ground ball rate.

If I was looking for pitchers with fastballs between 89 and 91, age 27-28, groundball rate 40-43, drafted between the 5th and 7th round, between 6'1 and 6'3, your point would be valid.

You also need to filter age... 21-23 that eliminates some guys If you fiddle with the settings you can easily get a group that is Aaron Sanchez and Felix Hernandez. Players who averaged 94 on the fastball and had a 55% or higher ground ball rate between 21 and 23?? There's a bit of ******** there. Hernandez pitched like 600 innings and Sanchez 50. If you raise the bar a bit (94 mph, 55% gbr) you have hardly anyone. Raise it a bit more (95 mph, 60% gbr) you have no one. It seems to me Sanchez is on to the far end of distribution.

I think they've gone to far with the thread closing. We get it. We don't want 20 threads started by 'the dogg'. However nothing wrong with the occasional silly thread. I also noticed that people are starting to demand threads they deem stupid (like the Sanchez thread) be closed.

May I ask why the mustache thread was closed?? There is some evidence for this theory.

Halladay was bad until 2001. His minor league number are very comparable to Sanchez's. So are Carpenters.

That's a vague answer. How many current starting pitchers are between the ages of 21 and 23, sit at 92-96, have a ground ball rate between 50-70 and were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round?? edit are also between 6'2" amd 6'6"??

Good point. Mentally I still think of him throwing 98... but that was out of the bullpen. My feeble mind sees Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. Tall, high school drafted pitchers, good scouting reports, horrible k/bb in minors and first year or two, then glory. a) even in that scenario he doesn't help until a couple years down the road. my feeble mind doesn't see all the other guys who fit the same profile but went nowhere...

But is that population really comparable to Sanchez?? How many 22 year olds are in the majors already and throw 98 with a 60% ground ball rate. I personally don't know. Does zips work for outliers?? Is Sanchez an outlier?? And I've blasted super-scouts... those unique individuals who can see what other trained scouts cannot. If lots of scouts in the industry like Aaron Sanchez... then there might be something to that. I don't know. If "the Blue Jay's super scouts" like Aaron Sanchez while the rest of the industry does not... then I'd say that's bull s***.

Really?? If Sanchez was a 24 year old 10th round college draft pick, threw 91, had an average ground ball rate this thread wouldn't even exist. Everyone would be waiting for the bubble to burst. The guys that believe in Sanchez see his age, pedigree, his fastball speed, and his ground ball rate... and assume that he will improve. So I'm curious if there is anything to that.

Why this thread should be locked is beyond me. It is an interesting question. It would be interesting to compile 20-40 pitchers similar to Sanchez. Divide them into two clusters using age, fast ball speed, and ground ball rate. Do pitchers with Sanchez' profile (younger, throw harder, high ground ball rate) improve more than we'd expect from the stas??

Aaron Sanchez current homeruns/9 is worse than Romero 2012... hr/9 is a pretty good back of the napkin for "teeing up".

That sounds about right. However it is possible his peripherals will get better. 22 years old, throws hard, good ground ball rate. It would of been interesting to word the poll slightly differently. 1. His peripherals will get better and his ERA will stay the same. 2. His peripherals will stay the same and his ERA will stay the same. 3. His peripherals will stay the same and his ERA will explode. At least that show us if anyone actually believes 2.

I'm being a bit silly. But in 1994 and 95 Delgado had slow starts... in 94 it was actually a slump after a hot start. He lost 30 homeruns or so because of that. Ended with 475 or whatever. By the same logic EE and Bautista should sit... and actually if they were 21 year old sluggers they probably would be headed to buffalo. Guys can look to bad or to good after a month. The organization should never give a player a roster spot unless they are willing to let the player work out of a slump. It sets a dangerous precedent. Young players will press knowing that there next slump means the minors.

Absolutely. If we are going to forgive Gruber it can't be based on 50 at bats by Ryan Goins. We need to know all the players he thinks will stick, and the players who won't... I think we need at least 2000 plate appearances for most of the stats to stabalize... So even if Goins somehow plays full time we will be waiting 4 years to find out. If Gruber lets us know several players who will stick and several who won't we can get a couple of thousand plate appearance quicker and then figure out if we can forgive him.

If in 2033 Dalton Pompey retires with 2847 hits please remember this day. If Beeston is alive they should wheel him out and shoot him then and there. edit: don't really shoot him... remove Joe Carters and Citos numbers from the numbers of glory level, and put Olerud's up, and Gillick 3 times and make sure Beeston sees that before he passes of natural causes. That is the only fitting punishment for Beeston.

My small opinion -- I like Travis, I like Pompey. Both were destined for .270 .330 .440 or so... great for rooks By random chance Travis started hot and he will get to his destination. By random chance Pompey started cold and he will NOT get there this year because of the criminals Beeston and AA. This was the same s*** that was happening 20 years ago and cost Carlos Delgado 500 home runs. It's criminal s*** and *******s like Beeston and AA should not be in charge of a baseball team. They do not understand logic, kindness, randomness, or thought. They are empty criminal suits and have no place in a capitalist socieity. Send them to communist siberia where all fake capitalists deserve to go.

I have a hard time forgiving Gruber even if Goins becomes a star. Gruber needs to be evaluated over multiple decisions. If you want to evaluate Gruber please compile all predictions he has made, players he has loved, players he has hated, and give him a rating. Then do the same for other posters. We can apply a WAR like rating to Gruber. It will take some work and we need a large enough sample size. Forgiving Gruber based on... what?? And besides... I just checked Fangraphs. Goins is at -0.2 WAR so far this year. Why are we forgiving Gruber?? Because Goins hit a triple last night?? Didn't Gruber specifically predict that Ryan Goins would reach a specific WAR?? Gruber gets forgiven when Ryan Goins reaches career 2 WAR per 150 games, otherwise we are applying Gruber like logic to Gruber... no way.