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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    No Bouncey you do not understand the statistics. I do. I've been here before. Last year I thought 'calm down' was the key. It made so much sense. A calm bunch of players and fans would feed off each other, calmness would lead to concentration, concentration would lead to clutch performance, clutch performance would lead to winning. We were so calm we almost s*** our selves... in a calm way. But in the end it did not help. I doubt 'f*** you suck my cock' will work either. Nox explained it... it is all just Bayesian priors and s***. Once you adjust for covariance of the other parameters 'f*** you suck my cock' is just another bit of noise.
  2. Olerud363
    These are the 1989 Oakland Athletics I am talking about. The had lots of weirdos who played for themselves... but won anyway...
  3. Olerud363
    Jose Canseco was/is a roided out weirdo who eventually chopped off his own finger. Dennis Eckersley was a recovering alcoholic. Ricky Henderson is by all accounts one of a kind.... Dave Stewart once got arrested (I believe) for soliciting a she-male prostitute. However they won anyway. I don't know. It was a long time ago. Maybe the rest of the team were incredible leaders and made up for the strangess of some of the key players. I am sure Rasmus could be a key part of any world series winner if he hit .270 with 35 homers and his teammates play well... not so much if he hits .200 with 19 homers and everyone else s*** it too.
  4. Olerud363
    I want to draw on my own experience in coorporate (North) America. I have sinced been kicked out of that environment due to poor attitude and spelling, but I was there once. In one situation my boss trusted me. He had to go the Future shop board meetings, and he said 'I trust you, you have full autonomy, I have to go to the Future shop board meeting. It is a very important board meeting. We will be deciding the future of Future Shop. If any decisions have to be made while I am there, make them. Don't bother me. I cannot be bothered. I have to concentrate on Future Shop." In a different situation my boss did not trust me and I did not have full autonomy, and he said "I have to be at the Mark's Work Warehouse board meeting. It is a very important meeting. However you also need to keep me up to date on what you are doing. I hate to have my attention divided, but you must let me know what is happening. You do not have full autonomy"
  5. Olerud363
    It says in Davidi's book that Beeston was anxiously awaiting updates while attending the Loblaws board meeting. That is a known fact. All I am saying is this: I have worked in a coorporate environment. If you have full autonomy your boss trusts you and will not be asking for constant updates. Nor will you be giving your boss constant updates, especially when they are in very important board meetings, such as the Loblaws board meeting. It's only when you do __NOT__ have full autonomy that you have to ping your boss during the Loblaws board meeting.
  6. Olerud363
    I said other. I want Gibby to fight next potential GMs of the Blue Jays as part of the interview process. We don't need another Fat Soft man... but we can't automatically assume that all fat men are soft. And we can't assume fit men are battle hardened. Just have them fight Gibby. If they put a good fight they pass that part of the interview... even if they lose the fight. We just don't want a weak individual like AA... so maybe Gibby has to fight AA and Wilner first. So we can calibrate it. I assume Gibby will beat the crap out of anyone. So we see how long AA and Wilner last.. then we have an idea how soft fat men will hold up to the power of Gibby. Then the other guys need to do better, at least put up a bit of a fight.
  7. Olerud363
    I'm not sure about the Dickey Trade. It's KNOWN f***ing knowledge that AA was calling Beeston during the Marlins trade. Beeston was taking calls regarding the trade in a critical f***ing Loblaws board meeting where they were deciding the future of the decadent cookie. On the other line he was guiding AA throught the Marlins trade. Track Team! Reyes. Another fast guy with fancy name! AA has downplayed Beeston's role in the Marlins trade, but as if! If your boss give you autonomy YOU DON'T f***ING CALL HIM DURING THE f***ING LOBLAWS BOARD MEETING. Your boss trusts you, and wants to concentrate on the great issues facing the decadent cookie. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE AUTONOMY YOU MUST UPDATE YOUR BOSS EVEN AS HE IS AT THE LOBLAWS BOARD MEETING.
  8. Olerud363
    The Anthony Gose comparison was beyond ludicrous... it was insane. It was the worst comparison you could ever have for Boyd The positive about Boyd is that HE IS PERFORMING. The (so called) negative is that HE DOESN'T HAVE AN OUT PITCH so he will stop performing when he comes to Toronto. Anthony Gose did not really perform in the minor leagues. He was young for his leagues but Vegas had that huge park factor thing... Anthony Gose DID NOT PERFORM. He can't stop performing because he didn't start. The appropriate comp. for Boyd would be a college hitter who is hitting .298 .405 .490 in the minors but that will not translate because he does not have power and has a "hole in the swing", Gabe Gross, maybe David Cooper ** Though I think Cooper might of hit OK if he didn't get that crap injury. We will never know.
  9. Olerud363
    I was trying to figure out why I like Sanchez a bit more than the rest of you.... I think it is this. If Sanchez is sent down that will be 4/6 rooks gone down. I'm not entirely sure how stupid the Jays front office is... I don't know if Cito Gaston still has a voice. However if 4/6 rooks go down, and somehow Beeston is allowed to choose his replacement. Then the Jays will hate young players for the next 15 years. Stupid Beeston Replacement (talking with his 83 year old consultants, original Beeston and Cito) - So, we've toyed around with giving some young players a chance... 80something year old Beeston - I don't like the sounds of that 80something year old Cito - they gave me this kid 'Green' once, way back in the last century... we won 50 games... then there was the debacle of 2015, never seen anything like it, those youngster are nothin' but trouble.
  10. Olerud363
    I was giving the other guy a hard time. Thanks though that was actually useful. Yo!
  11. Olerud363
    Yo! Last I heard he was transferred to the 60 day dl. Yo! Let us know if you find out more. Yo! He played a bit in 2014. Yo! He might be the last living Montreal Expo, show some respect. What is the word on that Other dude Reyes?? I haven't seen him take an at bat in a while. I heard he ate some bad ribs??? Yo! Is that true? When he is he coming back. I answered your question, please answer mine. Out!
  12. Olerud363
    It was suppose to be Saunders Smoak Travis Pompey Saunders destroyed by sprinkler Smoak destroyed because Bautista arm destoryed by Bautista's anger Travis still here but high in order because Reyes rib destroyed (wtf?? Reyes rib) Pompey destroyed by bad babip and impatient idiot AA
  13. Olerud363
    It was suppose to be Saunders Smoak Travis Pompey
  14. Olerud363
    I love Wilner... we need to document his entire life because when the historians from the 25th century look back on coorporate North America Wilner is the ultimate coorparate shill. You remember the moment where he had to decide whether to stand up to Cito or keep his job?? Since then we ain't ever heard from the real Wilner. I doubt he believes half the crap he says. Once you make that decision... to take in the ass from coorporate America instead of standing up for what's right... if you take it in the ass you become a changed man and just enjoy the little things (a good supper, watching your kids grow up, makin' a doillar) and do your job like a robot. That's where Wilner is.
  15. Olerud363
    I recall Bill James simulated thousands of seasons by computer... in a full season guys like Joe Dimaggio and Wade Boggs could hit anywhere between .250 and .400. Month to month there's even way more variation. Every regular player has months where they hit .180 months where they hit .400
  16. Olerud363
    Sometimes analysis is not intuitive unless you are engaged with the data on a day to day basis. Chad Jenkins != Syndergaard, should be clear to a semi-casual fan with an internet connection and a basic understanding of numbers. Osuna != Syndergaard, or Hoffman != Syndergaard... I don't know These guys have no or little minor league history. In the absence of numbers people rely on anecdotal data. "Would of been 1st overall but tore ligament, recovered well and throwing great" "Pitched in the Mexican league at 16 and reached majors at 20" 'unable to translate anecdotal data accurately' != 'retarded'
  17. Olerud363
    Note I am not claiming Dalton = Devon Just that we have no reason to think a) Blue Jays thought Dalton = Devon on April 5th Changed their minds on April 25th or whatever. Reverse Devon's first 60 at bats and last and he doesn't get to have his the other at bats.
  18. Olerud363
    Or is life really s***** and determined too much by Luck. What if Devon Travis 2015 = Dalton Pompey 2015 but... Devon started hot by random chance Dalton started cold by random chance All things being = they would of both ended the season at .272 .341 .438 with 17 homers (surprisingly pop for the rooks) and tied for Rookie of the year. But Dalton started cold so he is in Buffalo Devon started hot so he is allowed to ride out his slump and will find his destiny Dalton started cold so will miss 1 year See Delgado, Carlos.. his quest for 500 homeruns was ended at both the beginning and end of his career, at the end because of injuries, at the beginning because of poorly timed slumps. We are a failure as a species and have let Dalton down
  19. Olerud363
    I am prone to this because I am in the middle -- both groups hate me Me to the stats guys: I am curious Mr. Esteemed Stats guy, who are Sanchez' k-nearest-neighbors? or alternatively could you tell me where does he lie on your multivariate distribution?? clever stats guy: take your s***** overfit prediction home stats guy follower: zing!!!!! me: (confused) I didn't make a prediction... Sanchez Lover: He hasn't cost us a win me: they went 3-3 in his starts. maybe a different pitcher would of gone 4-2 Sanchez Lover: take your fractions home math boy! me: confused again. 4 isn't a fraction... Some people might not like the thread but how can you say it isn't interesting??
  20. Olerud363
    No they do reflect wins and losses. Back to J.A. Happ. He is 1 WAR ahead of Sanchez. Let's just say he pitches here like he is in Seattle (that is not valid really because if he was here he might trip over the sprinkler, or a bat or some stupid thing... it is the Jays after all)... If J.A. Happ is here he loses game 1 and 2, and then the Jays win the next 4. So they are 4-2 in his starts... they were only 3-3 with Sanchez. Happ wins the April 27th game. It doesn't really work like that... it's all probabilistic... but even so you can see how throwing Happ in there with his distribution of performances would give the Jays an extra win.
  21. Olerud363
    If we just cherry pick the games we could say someone else would of won the 3 games Sanchez won... and some other scrub could of held on to the 5-2 lead we had in Boston. All the sucker would of had to do that day is go 6, give up 3. Would of gotten the bullpen into a better situation. If Randy Wolf pitched those games we would be 4-2... NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.... well not really, but we might of been 4-2 with Randy Wolf.
  22. Olerud363
    If the Jays scored 100 runs in Sanchez 6 starts... atleast 10 runs in every game... you would be sort of correct. It doesn't matter who pitched those games. But that is not the case. Jays went 3-3 in Sanchez' starts. If Greg Maddux 95-version pitched those games Jays would probably be better than 3-3. If Jay Happ pitched those 6 games they most likely would of been 3-3. However they would had a better chance of getting four or more wins. Sanchez over Happ cost the Jays 1/3 of a win... or something... it is hard to see with only 6 games... 1/3 of a win is abstract so we can only say "Jays might of had an extra win if Happ was here" By the end of the season if things remain the same we can say "Jays would of had an extra win or 2 with Happ" Not that I hate the Happ trade... at the moment it just doesn't look like it is working and Happ is the kind of guy we could have instead of Sanchez in order to grab an extra win. Didn't know Stroman and Saunders would get injured when the trade was made.
  23. Olerud363
    There are only a finite number of states for 6 games. He is 3-3... he can't be 2.7-3.3, he cost us in a probabilistic sense. If someone better than Sanchez was pitching those games there is a 50% chance we'd still be 3-3 in them, but a 30% chance we'd be 4-2, and maybe a 20% chance we'd be 2-4. I don't know what the numbers are exactly. There not exactly like that, of course... there is also a chance we'd be 0-6, 1-5... so on. Say everything else is the same... a better guy might of won the April 27th Boston game.
  24. Olerud363
    He is not going to fluke the Jays to the pennant. If he walks 120 he'll have to have a better hr rate and k rate...
  25. Olerud363
    I'm not sure how to take this. What the hell is wrong with you people?? You've got a bunch of people saying. Sanchez is like Halladay at 22, he is like Schilling at 22. And you guys say No he is not... THAT IS WRONG. SANCHEZ ABSOLUTELY IS LIKE HALLADAY AND SCHILLING at 22. If you want to flame people do it right... say "Sanchez is just like Halladay at 22, he isn't that different then Schilling at 22. However he is also a lot like 500 guys you never heard of. Chances are, going forward, he will be more like the 500 guys you never heard of... not like Schilling and Halladay"
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