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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    The crazy thing is people like you will get their wish. Cito and the Beest are allready blaming the season on the high on base percentage and the base-cloggers... Next Jays great pitching team will have a .288 on base percentage and 125-56 stolen base to caught stealing, and probably 100 sacrafices. But win loss will be the ussual 75 win team 75 wins forvever 2019 Jays - 75-85, 1st in era, .288 on base percentage... this goes on forever no way to stop it with your kind of thinking.
  2. Olerud363
    That's not regression. "Getting worse" isn't the same as regression. When a player "regresses" they return to the average state. His skill against lefties is getting worse. Is that real?? What Gordie is saying is that the 0.34 is not real and his skill will regress to the average value, 0.85 or whatever it is. If you hit 50 homeruns, 5 years in a row, then hit 10.. you are not regressing. The next year when you hit 40, is the regression. If you hit below the mean you can "regress" back to it.
  3. Olerud363
    It's a zero sum game... if you give Smoak 500 at bats and he goes on to a nice 5 year run, earns some money... doesn't that help the teams reputation for giving bench players a chance?
  4. Olerud363
    He's allready had one .300 season, could get another one this year... .275 or so career. He is not Wade Boggs... I guess it depends on ones definition of "hitting for average"
  5. Olerud363
    I am no Navarro fan. But according to baseball reference. Navarro came back June 3rd and participated in a 8-0 victory. Since Navarro has been back the Blue Jays are aproximately 18-8.
  6. Olerud363
    Smug Farrell is coming to haunt us... not trying to troll as I've mentioned before I live in Northeast in an area with 1/3 yanks, mets, and sox fans. Mets fans - pleasant people, some even like the Jays as their "american league team" Yanks fans - practical money making types, they want to make money and win. They don't get personal about it when yanks win, just business. Sox fans - they gloat, they are smug like Farrell, they are m*******s, they sing sweet caroline and act like they are totally superior. This is what I will have to deal with soon.
  7. Olerud363
    Jesus christ... I was only saying that if you are patient with a young player they often get out of the slump. I was trying to illustrate that with Betts. I'll be more careful in the future. Dear Boxy -- I am writing you about my opinion that young players can get out of a slump... the enclosed trancsript is 344 pages long. Sorry about the length but I had to try and anticipate all the ways you will slam me in attempt to prove your mental superiority. I have added 134 clauses and exceptions to my opinions. - Thank you
  8. Olerud363
    The problem with this board is that since we all love to slam each other at ever opportunity there is no room for nuance. If I started a "Pompey better then Betts, no question!!" thread I would get the same reaction as a "Red Sox handled Betts properly, Jays did not handle Pompey properly" So your saying that since Betts is better he should be allowed to ride out a slump?? That Betts can hit under .200 for 20 games, but Pompey can't?? What do you tell Pompey on opening day Dear Pompey - You have made the team but your are no Mookie Betts, you are not that talented... therefore we won't allow you to ride out any slumps.. you better start out hot... or else you're out a here. If you were good like Mookie Betts we'd give you more rope.. since you aren't that talented don't slump. Thanks - Blue Jays Management.
  9. Olerud363
    If the red sox come back into the race and we end up watching smug Farrell smirk through the playoffs one of the differences will be the treatment of Betts vs. Pompey Betts bottomed out with a .190 average in April, very similar to Pompey. 10 days ago he was still hitting horrible... last 10 days he's raised his OPS by 100 points and looks like a good young piece. Pompey would of likely done the same. Red Sox - "Believed in Betts" Jays - "threw Pompey overboard after the first slump" And I don't care what the explanation is... whether you think Pompey's k rate was to high, or he shrugged his his shoulders the wrong way after a strikeout. IF you put a young player on the opening day roster you have to ride out the slumps. If you are not willing to ride out the slump don't put him on the opening day roster.
  10. Olerud363
    Honestly I'm not a Gibbons hater. But Goins in left field?? Honestly if you are willing to take a hit on the bat why not Pompey?? Pompey's OPS is higher then Goins. We all assume that Pompey isn't really a .194 hitter, and that he'd hit a bit more given time to work out of his slump. If we assume that Pompey's 2015 line is his "true talent", than Pompey is still above Goins as an outfielder. Pompey's a bit better hitter (even hitting .194) and faster, and more experience in the outfield. If we assume that Pompey would get out of the slump, maybe get up to .250... Anyway the point is that if we assume the organization is willing to put a mediocre bat in left in return for defense.... Then logically Dalton Pompey should be in left, good defense + potential breakout... We can only assume the organization does not use logic.
  11. Olerud363
    What you've done is brought up a good point. There are scenarios where Goins saves the game with his defense., there are scenarios where Goins even wins the game with his bat. The only way to know who will win more games is to count all the different scenarios Goins and Colabello have been in...also track all the scenarios similar players have been in. That's how stats work. I only use "hypotheticals" to try to convey how the stats are working. Colabello hits homer to win game... that is in the stats. Goins makes diving catch, in the stats. Goins strikes out with runner in motion double play, put it in the books. Looking at only a few plays it is apparent there are ways for Goins and Colabello to both win and lose games. To understand who will win or lose more games you have to look at everything they've done in their career and what similar players have done. When you add it all up it is convenient to put it all in one number like WAR. The stats say Goins shouldn't be in left field.
  12. Olerud363
    This isn't true. They need wins. What if they lose 3-2 tonight?? Maybe with Colabello in left and Smoak at first they win 4-3. What I am saying is this. It is stupid to say Jays need defense. They need wins. I don't give a f*** if it is 15-11, or 2-1. It does not matter to me as long as Jays win. As far as I can tell Ryan Goins does not contribute to wins as a left fielder. I haven't looked at the fan graphs but... Joe carter was a losing left fielder in his later year... take Joe Carter in his later year, make his on base percentage even lower, take away 90% of his homeruns and 70% of his RBIs I don't see how that could be a winning player. No matter how good his defense.
  13. Olerud363
    I looked it up on fangraphs... I knew Joe Carter's last season with the Jays was pretty bad, so I figured he might of had a negative WAR that year. What was crazy is that he had a negative WAR each year from 95-97. And the Jays still thought he was a guy to build around instead of Olerud. After being freed from Gaston (pull the ball or Brumfield plays) Olerud went 4.4, 8.1 and 5.8... Olerud actually had two 8 WAR seasons (93 and 98)... and was platooned in between them.
  14. Olerud363
    Do you think Cito Gaston or Beeston ever cared about negative WARZZZZ Joe Carter had negative WARZZZZ but still drove in 100.
  15. Olerud363
    The negative wARZZZ don't mean much... or not having the negative WARZZZ We need starting pitching. Good starters and some defense brings championships. That's the forumlar for champion seasons. Good starters, Ace, a little defense, and a clutch batter you can negative WARzzz or not have them, don't matter much either way.
  16. Olerud363
    We all know that AA was constantly on the phone with Beeston during the Marlins negotiations, we know Beeston was excited about 2 front end pitchers and the Reyes/Bonifacio track team. Ones interpretation of this depends on our interpretation of who Beeston and AA are as human beings. My own gut feeling has always been that AA isn't as dumb as most think, he is more like a savy coorporate type, like Wilner, willing to play the bitch to get the dream job. Lets say AA had several potential moves to improve the team in November 2012... he goes over 4 potential trades with Beeston. When Beeston hears of the Marlins trade it's fact that he said something to the extent of... "2 front end pitchers?? A track team?? Alex this is golden, this is unbelievable. Marlins are willing to trade these guys for prospects?? This is really exciting. Really exciting." Does AA 100% believe in the trade?? Or does Beestons excitement (Track Team!) take things in that direction, more so than other potential directions.
  17. Olerud363
    I apolagize for being a jerk. My point is a pretty simple one... AT&T is the Coors field of pitching. It seems to me people intuitively understand the effect of Coors but not AT&T 2014 Jays starters and 2012 Giants are amazingly similar... but hidden by park, defense and slightly better run support (in context of park)
  18. Olerud363
    I don't want to be a jerk here, but 2012 Giants pitching is comparable to 2014 Jays. Jays had durable pitchers in Buerhle, Dickey, Hutch, lights out Stroman. Happ could of pitched 200 innings to if he didn't get hit in the head. Those guys would look great pitching in AT&T with a slightly better offense and defense. People don't see it because they still don't get park factors and defense. It's frustrating. It should be obvious that AT&T greatly effects the stats... but people don't seem to get it. If I bring up a perfectly sensible point (2012 Giants pitching = 2014 jays) I get flamed and have to go to the advanced stats and 20 stupid posts. It frustrates me...
  19. Olerud363
    Dear Smokie After looking at the Stats closer it seems 2012 Giants and 2014 Jays are actually quite close in terms of pitching and hitting WAR. 2014 Jays 23.4 batting, 11.6 pitching, -8.8 defense (UZR) 2012 Giants 28.4 batting, 13.3 pitching, 16.3 defense (UZR) Since UCR has a range of ~ -75 to +75 the defense difference isn't as much as it seems 2012 Giants were 5 WAR better then 2014 Blue Jays in hitting 2012 Giants were 2 WAR better the 2014 Blue jays in pitching 2012 Giant were better at defense Every factor contributes to the championship. But if we use logic and numbers we can see that the 2014 giants were more of a hitting team then pitching team.
  20. Olerud363
    Dear Smokie The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays starters (Dickey, Buerhle, Stroman, Hutch and J.A. Happ had ~ 11 WAR. This is very comparable to the Sanfran Giants 2012 rotation. I ask a question?? Why did the Giants win the World Series while the 2014 Blue Jays went no where?? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0
  21. Olerud363
    I am Smokey, I am legion, I have made an alliance with Moogie, we kill engineers, we destroy numbers, we define our own reality. 2012 Giants - top 5 players 22 WAR, top 5 pitchers 12 WAR., 4th in batting WAR, 19th in pitching WAR Smokey "they were a pithcing team, 19 and 4 are just numbers, Moogie and I do not use numbers, we define reality by our dominating forum posts" http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  22. Olerud363
    I just meant he's regressing a bit. Will probably end up at around 7 WAR, not 10. I bet Lawrie (if healthy) will end up at 4, not 0 All I am saying is that what looked like 10-0, 3 weeks ago, now looks like it will end up at 7-4 or something. The path for the As to win the trade is a healthy Lawrie, Gravemen and Nolin contribute to the As 2016 playoff runs, Barretto and the prospects gained from trading Lawrie high lead to 2019, 2020, and 2021 run meanwhile we are starting post "30 years without playoffs"
  23. Olerud363
    I think you are underestimating the impact of a healthy Brett Lawrie... Basically Lawrie is a 25 year old ~4 WAR guy if healthy, Donaldson a 29 year old ~6WAR guy The differences between them are exagerated right now. As the cool kids are saying these days it will regress... If healthy there is always a chance a 26 year old Lawrie out performs a 30 year old Donaldson
  24. Olerud363
    The 2012 Giants played in a historic pitchers park and had a 3.65 era. They had a horrible Tim Lincecum. Bumgarner was average that year (adjusted for park) Their era+ was 0.96, meaning pitching was below average adjusted for park Some parks are hitters parks, some parks are pitchers are parks (AT&T) Adjusted for AT&T the 2012 Giants did not have great pitching AT&T is Coors field in the opposite direction. People don't seem to realize this. Michael Cuddyer - the people understand his stats are inflated Bumgarner - clutch super-dude on par with the greats -- no Bumgarner is the CarGo of pitching, good but park-adjustments need to be made
  25. Olerud363
    ?? Not sure why I am having an identity crisis. I've brought this up a couple of times before. 3 weeks ago you would hear that the Donaldson trade made up for a lot of AAs mistakes. Donaldson was on track to out-WAR the other guys 10-0 this year. Lawrie and Gravemen have turned it around. You can see the path for the As to win the trade big time. Lawrie stays healthy and keeps pace with Donaldson, Gravemen and Nolin are starters, Barretto regains top prospect status.
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