Olerud363
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Everything posted by Olerud363
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Generally when people say jays are _x_ win team, the randomness if factored in... most teams don't project for much more than high 80s, even good teams, cuz there is an expecation of s*** factored in
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this is all based on #statsscouting, and reading second hand reports that you guys copied (#hype) Vlad Jr - bigger sample size, more hype, younger, higher level Urena - better stats at same level, younger I believe Harris or Greene - Harris? No clue on this one sorry. Harris because ERA SRF or Tellez - ummm... Tellez, Fred McGriff was my first favourite player and I want to see another like that. McGuire -- cuz um... he will hit like 2011 Josh Thole, but have awesome defense Maese - younger Ramirez - younger, better Zuech - first ever pick by new great regime that you guys say knows it's stuff
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The task is not insurmountable bad luck can hit at any time good luck can hit at any time can't control luck, so 1. calculate fWar (or other metric) lost to free agency, aging, and regression 2. replace it I think 7 is lost to free agency (but could be regained)... what is the expected loss due to aging and regression??
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This isn't the same as projected fWar, however maybe useful. Here is a list of position player 2016 fWar staying, and 2016 fWar currently not signed. Have to replace essentially 7 fWar and whatever is lost to regression and aging 2016 total 27ish 2017 projected total - ?? fWar staying Donaldson - 7.6 Pillar - 3.2 Tulo - 2.8 Travis - 2.5 Martin - 1.9 Barney - 1.5 Carrera - 0.7 20.2? fWar not currently signed Edwin - 3.9 Saunders - 1.4 Bautista - 1.4 6.7
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I think this could be done incrementally. First just reduce the starters limitis slighty, Use relievers just a little more, instead of starter 6, 1,1,1, starter 51/3, 1-1/3, 1-1/3, 1... little difference... go more extreme the next year if things look to be working. Basically year 1 kind of run it like Francona just did. Year 2, maybe go more extreme, and go to a four man with starters on an 80 pitch limit or something.... and start to morph 5th guy, and second level relieves into long men
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His career numbers against lefties are .250 .350 .400... is that good enough for a platoon??
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That would make sense. Holliday is 9 months older, and has had two down years in a row. 5 4 4 4 1 1 x1 3 3 6 4 1 x2 The question is - what is x1? what is x2? what does the market think x1 and x2 are??
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Noberto Obeso is old for his level. He was dropped 7 levels from MLB. He is only a year younger than Alford. I hope Obeso goes to Lansing (dropped 4 levels) and is promoted quickly if he continues to hit. Obeso is not a teenager and needs to play ball with men, if he fails so be it, at least we know.
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Wasn't there like a lady who had like irrational hate for Aaron Hill?? I can't remember the entire thing, but even when Hill did OK she hated him, maybe something personal I don't know. Todd is like that with Alford. By all means put him 15 or 20 if you don't believe in the skill set, but 105?? It's like the entire purpose of the 105 is just to get Alford as low as possible, to really put some hate on him. If Todd is real, Alford must of dissed him somehow. Maybe didn't give an autograph to his kid (if they are real).
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I have no idea if Todd is real, or just a character created by someone... I know Hurl is against asking too many questions about the various re-occurring characters, but I like to know if I am talking to a real person, or a fictional character). That being said Alford's season was a dissapointment, it may have been caused by injury. If he is healthy and performs in aa he will rocket, not only to the top of our list, but way up on league wide lists. The upside is huge here. Especially with modern player evaluation. His baserunning and defense could be awesome. His hitting is intesting. His walk rates seem really high for a guy without powers.
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His age and career numbers are very close to Colby Rasmus... Colby was bad last year... Colby is a weird dude from what I have heard. So Reddick=Colby-bad year 2016-weird attitude
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A quick glance at Cleveland players shows a similar pattern... Lindor had 80 games in aaa, Jose Ramirez 40, Carlos Santana 57 It's not that common to spend an entire season in aaa, before getting a callup. Players are historically on standby when they reach the stage that Towlez is at. It's just reactive at this point. If he goes nuts in aaa they will find a spot for him, if he is average at aaa and a need arises he will be up... The only way he is not up at some point in 2017 is injury or he shits the bed completely.
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93-69 2nd ranked AL team, 102 pythag, 5-6 playoffs - 2nd best AL playoff team 89-73 4th ranked AL team- 91 pythag 5-4 playoffs - 2nd best AL playoff team Is there anything to suggest this team is performing worse in playoffs then expected??
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Hi Brownie I doubt there is any correlation. This year Jays went 1-1 in Kuber starts... 0-3 in Tomlin, bloody Bauer, and shaking rookie starts. The problem was not elite pitchers. They s*** the bed against the mediocre pitchers. I don't know why. Sometimes there is no reason. It's just a crapshoot. Boston Red Sox had the most balanced team known to man, every type of hitter possilbe Big old left side experienced walk machine legend hitter Young line drive MVP right handed speedy hitter Scrappy line drive on base percentage hitter Young top rated lefty line drive rookie hitter Flaky righty power hitter Experienced veteran line drive, old but not to old still sort of speedy right handed hitter Young right handed line drive hitter Young left handed patient, speedy, but prone to strikeouts hitter Switch hitting line drive oddly good season hitter They had every type of hitter known to man and got swept by Cleveland
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This board needs to reach a happy medium when it comes to number of threads. The goal is that when someone opens up they can quickly scan thread titles and get a good idea of what is going on... Given it was elimination day, let people have their fun, or vent frustration.
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I wonder if there's some unique strategies that would maximize value of the current staff?? Does reliever use and five man rotation have to be revisited?? Could you use a four man rotation, 2 times through the order limit... then a reliever strategy that would get 100 innings from Biaginni/Osuna/Liriano
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It's unlikely that Happ will be over-valued by anyone now that Dave Stewart is gone.
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Probably. The average number of weeks in aaa before first callup for a good blue jays prospect is probably 2 or so... once a prospect has a full year in aa they are basically on standby. Doesn't mean he'll stick, after double a, it is really common for guys to then just go back and forth between aaa and the majors, as needs arise, as performance dictates. Travis - 0 Pompey - 2 or 3?? Lawrie - 3 months? Snider - 2 or 3 weeks?? Lind - 2 or 3 weeks?? Aaron Hill - a few weeks? Delgado - 0 Wells - a couple weeks.
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He's not being a douche... it's just that you can't really approach team building in that specific of a manner. It will never workout how you think, it's just too random. You just have to maximize projected wins using the best information one has.
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Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Liriano... Who are your other two??
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You could put this season in Halladays career... and you'd just wonder why he didn't pitch 200 innings that year, and figure he might of had a minor injury. you could also put Stomans season in the middle of Halladay's career, and you'd just shrug and figure he had bad luck that year. That is saying something for the future.
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Joe Carter isn't even on that page... he is on the next. Carter gets beat by Hinske and Lawrie...
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Favorite Memories of the 2016 Blue Jays season
Olerud363 replied to King's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Of their important players they are essentially losing 5 WAR in Bautista and EE. And that is mostly EE, Bautista (I do not believe) was on of their 12 best players this year. -
Favorite Memories of the 2016 Blue Jays season
Olerud363 replied to King's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I went to Fenway the Saturday night where they won 4-3... Going into that game I was more depressed than I am right now. It was one of the most stressful games possible with Osuna blowing a save with a balk... unreal. However they scored in the 9th and won it. -
I remember watching a game in 2009, before 10 homers in September. At that time he was practically like JR. Lake was this year. But not really... he worked the count and was drawing walks. I appreciated that, from a bench player. Then when he became a star he continued drawing walks and led the league in walks a couple of times. This was no Joe Carter.