Olerud363

Shane Victorino?? Wall has slightly worse minor league rates than DeJesus, a bit better than Victorino. Strikes out a bit more than either did... but maybe in this day and age everyone strikes out everywhere. Brett Gardner was sort of similar, less power, got on base a bit more. There are probably 30 guys I didn't think to look up because they didn't do anything in the majors and they are just as comparable to Wall.

Either you have something to add about singing Smoak and getting him protection or you don't. Dinner has nothing to do with it. Imagine a lineup full of protectors all hitting behind Smoak. In modern baseball he'd hit 80 homers. Start at a baseline of 30, then add 10 for the first protector, 8 for the second (the farther away the protector is the lesser the effect and so on). And then think if Smoak is hitting second who-ever is hitting first would have an 80 homer guy protecting them. It would be great. Sign him now.

How is every single guy on the Twins over performing and everyone on the Jays underperforming?? Fluke?? Random?? Coaching?? I am not talking about the talent of the players. One can take Teoscar Hernandez and compare him to Max Kepler, and argue that their minor league and major league numbers are close, but Kepler is better. That's fine. But NOTE, before this year their minor league and major league numbers were close. What I am saying is why has Kepler added 150 points of slugging and is excelling while Teoscar lost it completely?? Why are Castro and Mitch Garver hitting their brains out while Jansen, who was probably projected to be better than both hitting like pre-2019 Socrates Brito?? Why is every single guy on the Twins over performing while everyone on the Jays is underperforming??

McKinney, Teoscar, Drury, Tellez, Davis, Brito, Hansen, Vlad, and Jansen are all significantly missing both their career averages and projections. I'm tired of hearing that these guys are just aaaa players. That may be true but that isn't the issue. Some of these guys may be bad players. But they aren't even coming close to their bad projections, or bad career averages. Hansen Career OPS+ 71, Toronto OPS+ 10 Brito Career OPS+ 37, Toronto OPS+ -19 (minus) Teoscar, Career OPS+ 102, 2019 toronto OPS+ 53 Mckinney, was projected a little higher Jansen, was projected a lot higher Vlad, was projected higher Tellez, was projected a bit higher These guys are all underperforming. If they were performing as aaaa players that would be a huge improvement over what they are doing. The narratative should be The greatest prospect ever is performing like a aaaa player would - (Vlad, only 20 and will improve but still...) The good prospect (Jansen) is performing like Socrates Brito (career average) Brito is performing like some guys on this board would if called up Teoscar, Tellez, Drury, Hanson, are significantly underperforming their career numbers and aaaa potential.

What is the use of Smoak without a protector?? Do you think with better hitting tips Vladimir could develop into a protector? Currently Vladimir is mediocre and could not protect Smoak. But imagine if Vladimir improves a bit. He hits a lot of 118 mph mile line drives at the center fielder. Once a week or so he gets that 118 mph line drive with a 25 degree launch angle and it goes into the flower pots 430 feet away. But it's not quite enough for good protection. However imagine Vlad learns hitting better, and goes from a .250 .320 .450 hitter, to .270 .340 .490. It's not a big difference but Pitchers would notice and they would designate Vlad as a protector in their notes I've seen them keep under their hats. Now you could move Vlad behind Smoak and it would increase Smoaks numbers. This is how I would see their numbers over a full season. Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers (on base goes down with protection but way more homers) Vald (the protector) .270 .340 .490 with 30 homers Now take this a step further and get a Vlad a protector. What about Matt Kemp?? He is a veteran that could be asked to protect. Then we have Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers Vlad (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers Kemp (the protector) .260 .320 .490 with 30 homers Kemp doesn't have to be a superstar just enough to add protection, he'll add 10 homers to Vlad's total + 30 of his own.

Has everyone noticed that the other teams are now carrying cards under their hats and in the catcher's wristband. The modern game is all about pitch by pitch analytics. The Yankees entire organization is preparing right now to make little Vladdy cry. The Yankees analytics department has looked every single pitch thrown to little Vlad this year and are passing that information to the coaches. They have a plan to carve up that fat over-hyped blubber-boy and make him and his fans cry at his 0-12 this coming series. I'm not saying that is going to happen, but the Yankees analytics department and coach's have that goal. Every pitch with a purpose and try to make the fat boy go 0-12. They know every pitch thrown to Gleyborr Torres and Luke Voit this year. They know every pitch thrown to every batter by the Jays pitchers this year. The analytics department passes the info on the coaches, and the coaches have one goal. To help Torres and Voit go 10 for 24 this series. Right now, this moment, is the Jays analytics department generating the same quality of information as the Yankees analytics department?? And is the Jays coaching staff qualified to use that information as the Yankees Coach's are to use their information??

Carlos -- this is a fake news attack against Grant. I am all for attacking, but not in a fake way. In 2008 the Blue Jays had a new and very white hitting Coach named Gary Denbo. In all out attack John Gibbons and Gary Denbo (after only 2 months and three weeks) were destroyed and replaced By a Black man Cito Gaston and Gene Tennace. Another Black man Murph was given more influence. Grant cheered these changes as he has cheered no other. It was not racial it was just time to 'pull dat ball'. No one was happier than Grant when the hit to all fields Denbo was sent away, and Cito Gaston came in to give the boys better hitting tips. Similarly 11 years later it may, or may not be time for a change in philosophy. Would hiring an aggressive 'pull dat ball' hitting coach help?? I have no idea. Is it time For Jansen to just aim at the third base coach?? Is it time for Vladimir to try and hit as many fifth deck foul home runs as he can?? Is it time for Smoak to stop walking more than he gets RBIs?? Not about race, just about philosophy.

I've been looking the batted ball stats lately and I figured there must be something to the Gurriebabip or whatever they call him, but doesn't his profile look pretty normal?? His babip is about .300. His numbers looked perfectly normal based on his minor league numbers... guy hits ball hard, guy doesn't walk. Guy (career so far) hits .270 .315 .470 or so. His slugging is a little higher then the minors, but that's not unusual (see any Yankees prospect from the last few years).

Have no idea. If so it's both ways. Pitchers are throwing harder then ever. Batters are hitting it back harder then ever.

Change in the hitters approach and pitchers approach and shifts. The value of a ball in play is down because of shifts. Thus more sense to go all or nothing. Homeruns at an all time high, strikeouts at an all time high, batting average at a generational (since 70s) low (.24x, x low)

It wasn't exactly the same, but both DSJ and Ramirez could of been kept if the Jays wanted to use 40 man spots on them.

Wasn't Ramirez only a free agent because the Jays chose not to put him on the 40 man?? If they put him on the 40 man wouldn't they of had the same control over him as any other young player?? "Note that a player who ordinarily would have been declared a Rule 55 minor league free-agent is NOT eligible to be a free-agent if the player is either added to an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) or agrees to a minor league successor contract prior to 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series." As far as I can tell they decided he wasn't worth the 40 man roster spot, thus he became a minor league free agent. So they had the option of keeping him they just chose other players instead. Same as with Dwight Smith. (Still probably inconsequential in both cases)

Speaking of winning recipes... Take Vladimir Guerrero, put him on a fast food diet starting at age two with Olympic Stadium Poutine and the Olympic Stadium Ice Cream Machine... verdict is still out on that one but it has resulted in a few majestic homeruns, some 120 mph line drives at the center fielder, and some 8 pitch strikeouts. Overall line is at washed up 40 year old Pujols level, but could get better while Pujol's probably won't.

Definitely not a 100 loss team, that would break Rule number 1. No nice things. A 100 loss team gets a top 3 pick. Vlad gets sent down with a .215 average. Hansen and Burrito called up. THEY CATCH FIRE. Unvelievable. Lead us to a 71 win season and the 10th pick.

Until he goes to Buffalo?? Until the Jays give up on him and he gets traded to the Yanks, Red Sox, or perhaps reunited with AA on the Braves?? The irrational part of me just says we don't deserve nice things and Vlad is not happening for us. 117 mph line drives to the center fielder, and 8 pitch strike outs without a pitch in the zone (a couple chases and a bad call) are the best we can hope for most nights.

one bad scenario all prospects bust, Jays on track to at least get top 3 pick but... Grichuk, Sogard, and Galvis go on titanic hot streak, Jays get tenth pick Orioles - two 1st overalls in a row, lead to legendary dynasty.

Good point. I was reading between the lines and assuming NJH a.k.a. Laika was assuming Pardinho won't be durable or projectable because of the height. Like if he was 6'6" would people think there is only a 10% chance he makes the majors without a surgery... maybe. Maybe the surgery rate is that high. I haven't looked into the stats.

Is there any evidence that the umps are calling him tougher then others?? If so why??

Then why does Shapiro bother with all the high performance and analytics s***?? I'm not saying a different manager would come in on Tuesday, give some hitting tips, and the guys would start winning 12-3, however is the money being put into the high performance stuff just wasted?? So what if the players suck. There are different levels of suckiness. A .300 on base percentage is sucky. A .250 is more sucky. What is modern analyitics?? Isn't it using every advantage to help the players succeed, shifts, pitch patterns, swing mechanics, high performance work out routines. Does any of it have an effect?? If there are three outcomes for Teoscar Hernandez, Brandon Drury types... all relatively sucky 1. .190 .250 .290 2. .220 .280 .320 3. .240 .290 .400 Can a good coaching staff get the sucky players to the high end of their suckiness?? And the good player to the high end of their goodness?? If not why does it matter who the manager is?? Why fire Gibby?? What did Shapiro think he would gain?? Did Shapiro realize that the manager (and coaching staff he chose) would have no effect on player perfromance, but think Charlie would squeak out 7 more runs each way with strategy??

Projection is not educated guess it is Projection = Past + a + b Past is what this player and every other player has ever done a is factor such as age, circumstances (in baseball stadium effect etc.) b is an error term If b was 0 then all projections would come true. b will never be zero the more projections you make the closer to zero b is. Even over 25 players b isn't zero. However over 25 players, over 5 years b gets small. Problem is even with good projections you are bidding with 25 other teams with good projections for the players, so you might not get the players you want according to your projections.

A lot of people were saying Stroman couldn't make it because he was too short and bringing up the fact that Pedro Martinez was the only good short pitcher ever as proof. What people didn't do was make a list of guys that made it to Stroman's stage at the same height, and show that once a player made it to that stage, they were eliminated from going further at a greater rate than tall guys making it there. Start with 1 million tall guys, 1 million short guys.... Let's say 100 of the tall guys become aa super stars, with a solid rookie season but... only 3 of the short guys make it to that stage. Given a short guy has already made it pretty far is he less likely than a tall guy to make it further?? It's hard because there are not enough short guys to get a good sample size.

When Stroman was coming up there was a lot of talk about this, there has never been a good starting pitcher between the heights of 5'4" and 5'10" except for Pedro Martinez... or that was the story. I don't remember a lot of data. Like if you are 5"5' and get to stage 3 (Dunedin or whatever) do you have less of a chance than the 6"4' guys in Dunnedin?? Or is it more that there is only one 5"5' guy there, and lots of 6'4" guys??? Like are Smurfy Martinez and Small-Fry Jones often stars of the pioneer league and can't make it farther?? Or once they make it to the pioneer league and succeed do they have as good as a chance as anyone?? It's more that there's hardly any smurfy at any stage, and lot of Big Franks...

Is there a publicly accessible API or database for which people can get access to the last 20 years of minor league data?? If so do a search for all teenage pitchers, of a certain size, velocity, k-rate, etc... try to make Pardinho average for the group, try to make the group large enough that the statistics mean something... I'm sure you know all this judging from your z-score articles. Perhaps it's just the mechanics of accessing the data, or the lack of availability that would be the hard part. If you find a decent data source, propose it for a 4th year project for a waterloo/UofT comp-sci/engineer. Or if you want pay make it an internship.

Dwight Smith jr is our best hitting young player right now. Guerrero is below the level that got Delgado and Snider sent down.

Why exactly is he not here?? My understanding is that the only reason he was let go is because they didn't think he'd work well with young players. There was some lip service that Gibby didn't want to go through a rebuild.. but I don't know if I buy that. Management wanted their guy to develop the young players. So can a manager and coaching staff have any effect on young players?? If so in what ways?? 1. Instruction and preparation - hitting mechanics, pitching mechanics, defensive drills. 2. Pitch sequencing - Preparing pitchers on how to approach each matchup in a game (the information will come from the analytics department, coaches need to get the information to the player) 3. Preparing hitters for that days matchups. - Analytics department provides informaiton on what to expect form every matchup, as above coaches need to convey the information to the players. 4. Optimizing matchups - For young players you may want to prioritize experience vs optimizing every matchup (ie at this point you may not want to Platoon any of the young players)... but still, when young players are going to be getting an off day 1 week anyway, you may want to schedule it at the best time. 5. Choosing which young player to play - IE Billy Mckinney, or Dwight Smith JR or Cavan Biggio or ... Through about 1/3 of a season the results have been terrible. That doesn't mean the process is terrible. It could be just luck, or just the wrong young players (so far)... but still... the results couldn't be any worse at his point.