Olerud363

Vladimir hits one 525 feet. This time it really goes off the score board, but Wilner doesn't call it that way, because he messed up the one that didn't hit the scoreboard. Buck and Pat take the opportunity to praise Sogard. Buck - now that was a shot. Jays on the board 4-1 San Diego. Pat - That was impressive. And to take nothing away from Vlad, but you know what Buck. It's only 1 run. Buck - That's right. You cant just win on a solo homerun. No matter how far it goes. You have to manufacture some runs. Pat - And the guy who does that is on the bench. Buck - But I can tell you right now he's not complaining. Pat - No sir. He's a great teammate. Great teammate.

They will still have an opportunity for the Sogard love fest every night (Poor little Vladimir hits into the shift) Buck - and grounded to the left side right into the shift Pat - With his bat control I don't why he doesn't just guide one the other way Buck - I know right. It's a free hit. They're giving it to him. Pat - I'll tell you who would of slapped it the other way, the guy on the bench. Buck - He might be on the bench. And as unfair as it is, I can tell you he's not complaining. Pat - That's right. Such a great team mate.

Tellez could be interesting. He had the stats you would expect out of a middle of the order prospect until 2017. He had the issue with his mother's sickness that year and the next, which apparently effected him quite a bit. His k/bb ratio in Buffalo was still good. His swing looks pretty good to me. My background in swingology is listening to Buck and Pat tell me that guys like Will Clark and Olerud have a great swing, and to my eye Tellez looks like he has that classic left handers swing. Also Pat and Buck tell me he's a big strong guy. And he seems to hit the ball hard and in the air. I am guessing (guessing) by his aaa stats that maybe he had issues with ground ball rate in the minors. Stats look like big strong guy hits ball on ground... Maybe a mechanical issue which he's since fixed. On the other hand his k/bb ratio isn't great in the majors so far, even though it was OK in the minors, and he probably needs to get a bit better before he's a piece on a contending team.

Pop up. He just missed it though. First pitch breaking ball, mighty swing, off the end of the bat and under it.

As a side note I concede the radio descriptions of things are becoming increasingly unreliable. Wilner had the Vlad home run at about 525 feet over the flight deck and off the score board. It was probably the most exciting home run call I've ever heard and sounded truly historic until Wilner had to correct himslef a few minutes later after getting the stats cast info and watching the replay. As a second side note it was almost as exciting as the Tellez "525" footer... which I still am not sure (even after watching the replays) if it was off the numbers on the roof and truly 525, or actually 425 (like Vlad's).

I didn't see the Galvis at bat in the 10th. Ovber the radio it sounded like he swung at some bad pitches. It also sounded like Vlad was too aggressive in his at bat leading off that inning. We could also say the game was decided by the Red Sox implementing a good approach at the plate and the Blue Jays not so much. Would the red sox coaching staff have Guerrero and Galvis better prepared for their at bats in the 10th?? Likely by not having a player like Galvis in the first place, and by working with Guerrero to be less excitable in that situation, and make use of his great eye.

If he hits fourth behind Vlad and Smoak he'll have guys on.

Depends on a lot of things. Look at his life time rates, and overall line. He's a .270 .370 .430 hitter in the minors. Not a huge amount of power but a bit. His .378 slugging percentage could be up 50 points with a hot week.

I feel like the liberals and semi-communists I know have a huge marketing problem. They love regulation, while most of the common people hate it. However the catch is the commoners I know love law. If I told the commoners that it was illegal for General Electric to pollute rivers because of property rights (GE cannot pollute segments of a river they don't own) the commoners would love it, but my liberal freidns would hate it. Liberal professors don't want law they want to regulate. If I told the commoners it was illegal for Monsanto (Bayer) to put poison in their weed killer, and the f***in' police were coming to arrest the Monsanto/Bayer CEO, the commoners would love it. But the liberal professors not so much. It's weird. The liberal professors would want a "regulation". So most capitalists especially little guy capitalist absolutely believe in rule of law, and most environmental issues can be solved with rule of law (poison is illegal) and property rights (cannot send pollutants to someone else's property). But the liberals hate this philosaphy and would rather burn the earth, if they can't get centrally planned regulation and control of the people. So we don't have smart simple laws to protect us.

Hi Todd (not the prospect Todd, the other Todd) Chris Colabello apparently plays for the Suger Land Skeeters. I learned this from google. Also since you made me go google it for you I'm going to take this opportunity to rant for a while. I started watching Brockmire the other day, and I picture Colabello's new team mates as guys like Pedro Uribe and Yoshi Takatsu. That's all. Don't actually have too much time to rant right now.

I though of this picture when I checked bbref today... Jays team slugging percentage, .363 is exactly at Olerud's 1993 average, and their on base percentage (.284) is exactly at his 1992 batting average.

What difference is 10 runs either way going to make?? Bunting or not bunting isn't going to change the win total by much. It's a small thing. I took a look at a couple of the baseball reference win expectancies for situations where we bunted. In the Vlad Debut game (bottom of the 9th) it actually improved the win expectancy. In the first Fenway game (Richard Urena Bunt) it was didn't change the win expectancy. I am sure there are other situations where it hurt the win expectancy... or maybe not. I don't know if the win expectancy considers the sequence of batters involved, or just is derived from average situations. The bigger thing is player development, which has been awful so far. Maybe Charlie and the coaching staff don't have much of an effect on this. That seems to be what a lot of people think. I for one would like a coaching staff that a) could work with Teoscar Hernandez and get him up to his great .250 .300 .430 potential (not .200 .270 .270) could work with GurrielBABIP or whatever, to get him up to his great .270 .300 .400 potential as a utility man and not have YIPS. c) could work with Brandon Dury to get him back to his amazing (sarcasm) seasons as a young player in Arizona instead of the .240 on base guy we see this year. d) could work with Danny Jansen to get him to be some resemblence of the hitter he was in the minors and last year. I don't know. Maybe this group of mediocre players are so awful, they were destined to collapse into the worst group of players this franchise has ever seen and wouldn't be any better or any worse under any coaching staff. Maybe Teoscar is really a .270 slugging guy, and can't get it up any higher. If it's a player development year, it would be nice to see developement, and maybe that will come. Jansen is looking better lately, so is Mckinney... blah... blah.. blah...

That is the point I've been trying to make in a round about way. All the complaining about bunting is stupid. It doesn't matter other than if it indicates larger problems in the organization.

I assume it was an upper management decision. Though I don't know for sure. Maybe they tell him Vlad needs an off day a week, and Charlie decided on today, and had no idea it was a holiday. Maybe they told Charlie to explicitly sit him today. Maybe they didn't know it was a holiday. Maybe they did. Maybe they have a deep learning computer algorithm optimizing the off days, but the deep learning algorithm doesn't know it is a holiday. Maybe they all know it is an off day but don't care. Maybe they are all asleep in the wheel, have nice powerpoints, but nothing else.

Agreed. When you compare him to Panda the other series, Panda had a huge gut... Vladimir was just huge. Though he has 12 more years to catch up to Panda... I'm no scout, but I've impressed by his range and arm. It seems to me that the only thing preventing him from being OK at third is conditioning and work... If he can maintain his weight at 235-240, work on fundamentals, with his arm and natural hand eye coordination he should be able to handle the position. Panda himself had some great defensive years in his younger days, so no reason Vlad can't do it.

If you are referring to the Bautista part, looking at the batted ball data I feel like he wasn't actually done... it looks like he had some bad luck and deserved to keep going, at least as much as Pujols does.

Batted ball stats and rate stats both normalizing. K-rate dropping. Fly ball rate now down to 50% and hard hit still at 43%. He has reached the OPS level of about Delgado, Snider, and Olerud's rookie seasons. Still a bit to go to catch the elite Blue Jays rookies such as McGriff or Hinske... however at this point another good game will get him there.

We are the Orioles. We may not be in two weeks. Things may get better, or maybe they won't! 1. The team as a whole is hitting about the same as Chris Davis 2019 level. 2. The team is being propped up by Sogard hitting out of his mind, Galvis a bit better then usual, Grichuk about usual, and Smoak's walk rate. Those are the good players. 3. The young players are hitting a combined Chris Davis 2018 level. 4. The only young player from our system who his hitting is Dwight Smith JR. And he is now playing for the Orioles. We are the Orioles. We are everything Oriole. You can't get more Oriole then what we are now. (It will probably and hopefully get better, but if you want to express what level the Jays are playing at as of this day, May 17th 2019, the best word to describe it is ORIOLE) And you may argue that, no my friend, we are 2 games better than the Orioles!!! May I remind you that the ultimate butt kick in the nuts season involves being terrible but somehow finishing ahead of other terrible teams and getting the 9th pick while.. The Orioles get their second #1 in a row. Orioles. They are us. We are them except with worse picks!!!!!

The only difference between Tellez and Drury is Tellez has 2 more singles, and Drury can handle 3 key defensive positions... so I don't know why an NL team would want Tellez instead of Drury. They've all been bad. Tellez, Drury, Gurriel, Hernandez, Mckinney, Jansen, and Vladimir Guerrero JR. have hit a combined .220 .267 .330... or whatever. That number is estimated but close... And Bichette broke his hand. Not that that one is Charlie's fault... Just another kick in the nuts.

I realize I over react sometimes. It's only 40 games... but he's done the worst possible job imaginable developing young players. a) The Vlad thing is probably mostly luck, as he smokes balls right at people and just misses some, and if he keeps hitting the ball as hard as he has he'll hit as expected. The other young players weren't all that to begin with but two of them have already been sent down and the rest are playing nightmare bad... He's done the worst possible job imaginable developing young players. I can't think of one young player that has come close to matching expectations.

Modern analytics involves a huge amount of data. Coaching staffs are being fed information on every pitch. We are starting to see the shifts change pitch to pitch because of that. Pitchers are being given detailed plans on how to pitch every batter. Every batter is given a detailed plan on what to expect from every pitcher. If Charlie and the coaching staff can't even handle basic game strategy how are they able to handle the vast amount of data involved in the modern game??

Just so everybody isn't completely f***ing confused I have a Mets fan friend who goes on and on about how bad Brandon Nimmo is. Every single moment since Vlad came, except for maybe 2 minutes after the second homer I could tell him Nimmo is better than Vlad. After the second homer the other night Vlad was better, than a day later he was worse again. (aa a side note I realize Nimmo isn't really bad, but the Mets fans I know seem to hate him right now, and I just point out he's out hitting Vlad)

I don't understand why anybody cares about the bunting so much. The team is horrible. The greatest prospect the game has ever seen can't keep up with Brandon f***ing Nimmo. I am sure it is mostly luck. He hit's the ball hard but it's right at people half the time, and he just misses it the other half. Brandon Nimmo - Better then Vlad - f*** you Nimmo. The team has a .280 on base percentage. All the f***ing no name godamn sucky as hell prospects who were suppose to put up a .220 .300 .390 line can't do that. The greatest prospect of all time can do that. PROSPECT That should hit .220 .300 .390 - HITS .190 .220 .280 (or whatever the f*** it is). Greatest prospect of all time. Hits the .220 .300 .390 that the horrible prospects should of put up (I guess he will hit soon, but not tonight) Anyway if you are going to rage post do it right. f*** COMPLAINING ABOUT BUNTING. BUNTING DOESN't f***ING MATTER EITHER WAY. Jays bunt a lot - score 554 runs. Vlad tries to keep pace with horrible Brandon Nimmo (not 2018 Brandon Nimmo but the horrible 2019 version) and can't quite keep up. Nimmo - .204 .352 .344.... Vlad .202 .302 .338 (Vlad slightly worse) Jays don't bunt a lot - score 558 runs. Vlad tries to keep pace with horrible Brandon Nimmo (not 2018 Brandon Nimmo but the horrible 2019 version) and can't quite keep up. Nimmo - .204 .352 .344.... Vlad .202 .302 .338 (Vlad slightly worse)

Interesting to follow Vlad's batted ball stats. We want him to end up at apr. 20-40-40 for the two important ratios. LD, GB, FB, and Soft, Medium, Hard. He's about there for SMH. Still grounder heavy Overall Vladdy is about at a Bautista 2018 level in terms of both real production and batted ball... It sucks to have bad luck when you are old or young. If young everybody freaks and you might get sent back and lose 25-50 homers off your career total (like Delgado did). If old you might get retired or no one wants you and the same you lose 25-50 homers. If in the middle no problem. Everybody just let's you play and the luck evens out. Bautista > Pujols Bautista absolutely fine still. Hitting as good as ever especially in 2018. (he was admittedly off in 2017, but batted ball and walk rate was great in 2018). Poor Bautista. Part of me wishes someone had signed him to an expensive mulit year contract, so he'd get a chance to just keep going like Pujols, just on account someone owes him 50-100 million still. He deserves it more than Pujols.

One of the reasons I was a tad concerned about Vlad was the ground ball rate, which seemed a little high even in the minors, and ridiculous in the majors. The Jayson Heyward narrative I'd heard was he had an uncorrectable flaw in his swing which caused his ground ball rate to sky rocket. I remember hearing the same thing about Brett Lawrie. I've never looked at the fangraphs batted ball stats, but have started too lately. The bigger problem with Heyward and Lawrie actually seems to be that their hard hit rate is below 30, where good hitters are in the high 30s or low 40s. Vlad is in the low 40s. His ground ball rate will probably normalize. But even if it's high he's not Lawrie or Heyward, his velocity off the bat and hard hit rate is way higher. Who is a player with a highish ground ball rate, but very high exit velocity and hard hit rate?? Just curious if anyone can bring up an example.