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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    He's projected for 3.0 WAR. Comp picks are probably worth closer to $15M.
  2. Laika
    No there isn't. The worst case scenario is the same whether or not the opt out exists (he sucks and you pay him the full contract). Completely unrelated question but did you do well in school?
  3. Laika
    MLBTR note on Shields: Oh boy. I'll take Shields + Nick Vincent for Revere, plz and thanks.
  4. Laika
    That risk is in the contract whether or not he has an opt out. To pay Shields $21M for 3 WAR and then have him walk away, giving the team a comp pick (over $10M in value) would be extremely attractive to me.
  5. Laika
    Sure, they get to the same place in very different ways. If you just look at WAR and IP though, they are almost clones.
  6. Laika
    Not really in a significant way. The opt out is obviously a good thing for Shields because if he has a great season he can elect free agency, so it removes a bit of the upside on his contract for the team. But really I think any team would prefer to have him for 1/$21M as opposed to 3/$65M. At this point we would project all/most of his surplus value to come in 2016 anyway.
  7. Laika
    Toronto picked up Buehrle for 3/$49 three years ago. Salary inflation at 8% annually takes that to around $62M. Shields is guaranteed $65M over the next 3 years. 200 inning workhorse. Buehrle certainly worked out. Rinse and repeat old tactics? They'd have to move some salary around, I bet. One major difference - the pace. Shields = 23 (one of the slowest) Buehrle = 15.9 (fastest in the game)
  8. Laika
    That was this past year. Going forward he's 21M, 21M, 21M then 16M with a 2M buyout. Basically if they manage to trade Shields it will be exactly what Miami did with Buehrle. They only had to pay Buehrle $6M and then traded the backloaded part of his contract to Toronto. Which is kind of funny because Shields and Buehrle are actually so similar in a lot of ways.
  9. Laika
    All he did was provide you with a link to a recent discussion on the same topic...
  10. Laika
    yup
  11. Laika
    Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 3m3 minutes ago Padres continue to try to push James Shields in the trade market. Owed $63 million over the next three seasons. With a 3 WAR projection for 2016, Shields should reasonably be expected to be worth a bit more than his remaining contract. Some team should want him. He also has a $16M / $2M buyout option for 2019. So that adds some upside for a team, if he stays effective.
  12. Laika
    One of the worst blog posts I have ever witnessed
  13. Laika
    Tyler Flowers plz
  14. Laika
    They are probably having a pizza party tonight in Tampa's front office Framing runs: 2013 +17.2 (6th in baseball but was almost #1 in runs per chance) 2014 +24.9 (1st in baseball despite only playing 80 games) 2015 +3.6 (down year)
  15. Laika
    Why do you have to be so obtuse? I watched every game and saw a loooooot of duck farts by Colabello. He was the king of duck farts. We see what we want, to some extent. You see a shiny batting average and think he's good.
  16. Laika
    .350 is elite, Miguel Cabrera / Mike Trout / Paul Goldschmidt, routinely smashes line drives at 100+ mph territory.
  17. Laika
    I think it's entirely based on the basic stats. Not as a rule or anything, just as a holdover. The arbitrators aren't necessarily baseball people, they are labour law people (lawyers and judges), so the process is kind of stuck with with these old stats and old reference points that can work across both the baseball and employment law worlds. That's why they also care about playing time and awards. "I see here, Mr. Donaldson, that you barely missed any days of work in 2015 and you were also recognized by your peers as being excellent at your job. Very good!" I don't really know how it works exactly.
  18. Laika
    You just tender him as an insurance policy at this point, in case Osuna and Sanchez have a terrible tandem skydiving accident and land on Aaron Loup. Maybe he comes to spring with a new pitch or something. I mean he still has some decent stuff and strikeout skill.
  19. Laika
    Of course. We could probably expect Colabello to BABIP a bit over .300 due to his up the middle, line drive approach. Maybe .320 is fair.
  20. Laika
    Yeah but who gives a s*** about keeping Delabar around? He's essentially a replacement level reliever.
  21. Laika
    Site is slow as f*** and the new UI is garbage but it's the only place that has all of that information.
  22. Laika
    THIS WEBSiTE KNOWS
  23. Laika
    [table=width: 400, class: grid] [tr] [td][/td] [td]BB%[/td] [td]K%[/td] [td]ISO[/td] [td]BABIP[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Smoak[/td] [td]8.8%[/td] [td]26.2%[/td] [td].243[/td] [td].254[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Colabello[/td] [td]6.1%[/td] [td]26.7%[/td] [td].198[/td] [td].411[/td] [/tr] [/table] Don't let the BABIP dragon fool you? Obviously Smoak is a statue that should only be expected to BABIP about .275, but Colabello isn't that much more athletic. It's entirely possible that Colabello built his 2015 offensive season largely on duck-farts, that won't transfer over. Smoak has the better underlying offensive peripherals, largely. He's also marginally better defensively. Their projections will be close. It's essentially a coin-flip for who will be better in 2016.
  24. Laika
    Yeah the guy had a .243 ISO. Easy to look past that when three other guys on the team had better marks, but coming to Rogers Centre really did unlock Smoak's latent power.
  25. Laika
    Smoak had a 112 wRC+ in 2013 with traditional stats of .238/20/50 and he was paid $2.7M in arb 1 in 2014 as a result. He was a nightmare in 2014 so he was non-tendered and signed at a pay cut. Then in 2015 he basically returned to 2013 talent levels, like you said. .226/18/59 It was in way less PA though. His traditional production scaled to 600 PA would have been 33 HR and 108 RBI, believe it or not. Arbitration is a weird process that is based on traditional stats and what similar players have made during arbitration. I don't have the insider's knowledge to know if his arbitration for 2016 would have been tied to the $2.7M from 2014 or the $1M contract from last year, but I've heard that he was projected to make $4M in arbitration. I find it funny (and I'm not talking about you) that some of the same people who basically think money shouldn't matter when it comes to Price all of a sudden are perturbed that Justin Smoak is making a few more peanuts.
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