Laika

f*** I love being a fan of this team now https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/blue-jays-cody-ponce-finalizing-three-year-deal.html

Probably them pivoting from Diaz but we will see They have infinite money but that still closer money there

I kind of prefer the inequity Leagues like the NHL seem so boring and random now

Nothing is off the table

Santander + Berrios to the Pirates for Skenes?

Gimenez had a .306 xwOBA last year vs a .269 wOBA His projections are for a .304 wOBA, and 95 wRC+ That is honestly all he needs to do to keep the contract from being an albatross

Stuff+ has the hardest time with changeups There are poorly graded changeups that are very effective because the pitcher has great feel and command of them and can sequence reliably And then there are Cease changeups that grade well on movement etc. but that are just slop in games because he can't find any feel or command so he can't get results with them. Or they don't complement his other pitches. I feel like getting him to find a reliable sinker or cutter is the path of least resistance because it SHOULD in theory be easier to incorporate and these are command focused pitches so if he can find one he is willing to throw even 12% of the time it might help with his Strike% I dunno! We will see

okay so f*** 284 it's just a number age is just a number and so is payroll

They are very different archetypes. Snell has trouble staying on the field but has not had performance questions in years. When he is pitching the combo of stuff and control is pretty elite. He walks hitters but it's largely on purpose - would prefer to give them nothing to hit. Uses all of his pitches effectively. Cease makes every start but is more of a bulldog who just brute forces his way through starts with knockout stuff and okay command. Almost reliever-ish. Doesn't use his 3rd or 4th pitches effectively. Honestly, it's a different repertoire but other 2 pitch guys might be better comps. Gausman... Maybe the thing to do with Cease to help him be an Ace is just fastball wrinkles. There are an increasing number of MLB pitchers who throw 2 or 3 fastball variations and it has helped them step out of being predictable or hittable. The one thing Cease maybe hasn't tried in earnest is adding a cutter and sinker. Incoming seam shifted wake sinker! Maybe use Drew Rasmussen as the model for that second fastball

I think the 2026 luxury tax thresholds are: $244M $264M $284M $304M Fangraphs says the Jays are already at $263M $284M is where the bigger surcharges (45%) begin and draft pick penalties begin (you move back ten slots) So the Jays can spend another $20M, without moving any money away, assuming they want to avoid beginning the year in the draft pick penalty range. But when you are throwing around $210M on Dylan Cease and $500M on Vlad and so forth do you really care about your draft pick sliding back 10 slots? Or one year of a 45% or 60% surcharge on the luxury tax you pay? Maybe they just blow it out of the water this year. There is about $91M coming off the books after 2026 (Springer, Gausman, Varsho, Bieber, Lauer, Yimi, Straw). Some of that money doesn't necessarily need to be used again immediately. They obviously need a CF and will probably add at least one SP. But, a chance to let payroll trickle back down so they aren't above the upper thresholds with no way out of it for years on end.

Combined - no World Series wins since 1948 Two in a combined 209 seasons? Wow

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/brewers-reportedly-concerned-about-payroll.html Imagine cheering for a team like this? Misery.

I guess not. That was just speculation anyway, I think.

Yeah it's tempting to say that but there is so much recency bias there, and we all know how volatile ERA is If you look at his entire career, there isn't a huge difference. 1015.1 innings. 3.88 3.84 3.83 3.67 3.66 That ^ is the range on his ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA. Yes, none of those are "Ace" numbers especially considering where has pitches, San Diego and the AL Central. I do think Toronto must think they can help him be a bit better.

Yeah most ppl here would need to admit that they (we) want Bo back partially for narrative or feel good reasons. There are better and more efficient moves to make. Bo might come back, we have seen Toronto move inefficiently before when they had to (Vlad, Gimenez trade, etc.), but nobody should really expect it for all of the obvious baseball reasons. I feel like he comes back on a pillow deal like Bregman/Alonso last offseason if his market never develops.

The Jays have only missed on some of the backend SP options like Mitch White The contract value factoring in deferrals is also almost exactly what MLBTR predicted. I think it's hard to characterize this as an overpay when you consider age and focus on the actual AAV. Cease is one year younger than Max Fried was last offseason. Fried got 8 years at $27.25 AAV. Cease is getting 7 with about a $26m AAV. Fried got that ^ after a nearly identical platform year by DIPS and fWAR. Fried is almost the opposite of Cease. Fried being sort of inexplicably good (analysts had a hard time understanding how he kept the ERA so low) while Cease has been inexplicably bad at ERA. Aaron Nola got basically this contract as an EXTENSION two years ago while sitting 92.9 mph Cease is only 30!

Tyler O'Neill for Berrios is fair

Bassitt as the SP5 would be a dream but he probably gets a solid contract. Maybe 2/$30m

I believe he has tried every changeup under the sun but we will see

This honestly reminds me of Zack Wheeler to PHI. Who remembers when Zack Wheeler was kind of an enigma?

They are overreacting to his ERA this year Fangraphs has FIP etc splits for second and third time through the order

Probably but he's been surprisingly consistent if you ignore ERA

fWAR since 2021... Cease and Gausman rank #3 and #4 in MLB.

Cease, Goose, Biebs, Savage, Lauerios is wild

Wtf wow lmao okay Now sign everybody