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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Pinango leading off! They love him. Maybe he isn't going down any time soon. Okamoto hitting second makes sense too Love it
  2. I bet it's not even 30% of that
  3. Bo's AB in extra innings. First and second nobody out. Whiffs at a pitch two feet high. Grounds into a DP on a pitch in the dirt.
  4. Good team Also lots of bad teams out there
  5. I think classic Cease is definitely an inefficient 5 innings Or 5 clean and then gets destroyed in the sixth
  6. I guess we get irrationally excited about Okamoto now? He's Troy Glaus
  7. Valenzuela has to get almost every start until Kirky is back
  8. He doesn't really need three days off in a row and there is no telling what the next game will present
  9. I didn't want to say anything in case he went on the give up back to back homers
  10. RJ Barrett was a huge liability for the entire end of the game but then God bailed him out
  11. Should be a rule against that Anything in the zone or above/below it cannot be a HBP Must be a ball inside to be HBP eligible
  12. Is game day wrong or did Buttman just get hit by a strike?
  13. Probably more about the pitch count than anything but they would also have a fatigue model that uses all of this info: Pitch count Inning count Pitches per inning Number of up-downs Maybe other stuff like weather, pitch types being thrown, favourite mario kart character, sexual preference, what he had for breakfast, girth, and so forth There is science based on their fatigue unit regression models, and that is distilled to the stupid coaches and is probably something like: 70 P max, and 3 up-downs max, and never 35+ P in one inning
  14. I think it's just their pitching progression development model now Tiedemann was a 2021 draftee who threw 78.2 innings in 2022 across three levels (aggressive promotion to AA) and he was going 5 innings or at least 4 in most of those starts, until he hit AA. King was a 2024 draftee who threw 61.2 innings in 2025, between the complex and A ball. They weren't as aggressive with him. Did not push his levels and did not push his innings. Similar kind of stuff but RT would have been more polished right away (walk rate tells us that). King being 19 for three more months, I bet they just want to see close to 100 healthy innings for him this year. Maybe not even that many. They probably regret pushing RT to AA back in 2022 and regret not building up his innings more deliberately. There are not a lot of other Toronto data points. Here are all of the High School SP they drafted and signed after the RT draft: Nolan Perry - had injury issues Stanifer - wasn't very good in 2023, 2024 but they let him loose in 2025 at 21 years old when his talent broke through Maroudis - got hurt in 2024 Carson Messina - elbow soreness took his whole season, will be on the FCL roster this year to start, huge helium potential if he has his velo still 🔥 Troy Guthrie Johnny King I think the youngest MLB SP who was a domestic draft pick was Elmer Rodriguez. He was a 2021 draftee. His progression: 2022: 38.1 innings, 2023: 55.1 innings injury (King is here), 2024: 89.2 innings, 2025: 150 innings
  15. that seems weird so he has mono or cancer I guess
  16. Yeah The funny thing about this is that for high level fantasy baseball (big money leagues) a lot of the "skill" left for participants to exercise is just head-projecting playing time, which is impossible to do with high accuracy Everybody uses the same projection systems for production and the same auction value calculators, but if you can correctly intuit that Joe Speedy is going to get 550 PA instead of 250 PA for some reason, that can make your entire draft and year and career I think the manual part of Fangraphs' Depth Charts is that they work off of the Roster Resource depth charts, which I understand are updated by human beings
  17. Their season projections would change as the Fangraphs Depth Chart projections change People are manually adjusting those playing time guesses for injuries so yes Crochet should have just lost some innings
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